Post by STGOutdoors (weatherfan22stg) on Feb 21, 2016 20:48:46 GMT -6
Looking at the temps at all levels, it appears the 850's are the only concern right? Well, besides surface which 33-35 is easily overcome by heavy snow. Like I said last week I'm a little uncertain with the temperature profile stuff.
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 21, 2016 21:00:08 GMT -6
Nam really suggest blizzard conditions in the metro Wednesday morning. Sustained winds around 35mph with gust near 50. Most of the column has cooled below freezing at that time as well so the snow wouldnt be pure slush balls.
NAM shows a quick changeover to snow Tuesday PM with the 0*C isotherm at h85 and h9 caving east into IL as the heavier precip develops across the area with good CAA developing. Probably a bit overdone as it typically is, but it shows an area of 45-50kt gusts along the river into IL. 65-70kt LLJ at h85!
This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL.
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young
What is causing the separation between heavier precip.. from springfield up too just north of downtown?
deformation zones are often episodic. One forms...matures...maxes and fades as a new one develops further east...leaving a relative void between them. The lower res NAM hints at the same thing. This is related to the cyclic occlusion process.
I seen someone reply to Ryan Maue of 993 at Baton Rouge on 2/10/60 and 2/26/58 as lowest SLP for Jan.-Jun. months. Wonder what, if any, analogs are for those dates?
I've already been looking at 2/10/60. That was caused by a 977mb low in MO. The outermost closed isobar was an astonishingly low 996mb. So not a very good analog. 2/26/58 was a similar setup. I'm still looking for 990mb- lows with outermost closed isobars of 1004mb+.
Ya it bombs out the low really early which seems odd to me. Ive never been a huge fan of the 4km NAM. Its great for severe weather outbreaks though!
I'm trying to find analogs of sub 990mb cold core lows way down there by 30N latitude. I'm coming up short at the moment, but still looking...
Check out the theta-e's for the Gulf coast and the position of the two jet streaks as the low leaves Louisiana on the GFS. Even if the NAM4km is a bit ambitious with 986mb, the GFS brings it right to 990mb, but it kind of makes sense with the coupled jets and the strong warm air advection that sets up early.
gonefishin: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6