Classic heavy rain signal, including the rule-of-thumb of 5 isobars across the Gulf. I'm worried that the Wed-Thu event will just be a "PRE-type" (predecessor rainfall event) though, as there's sure to be more rain as the upper low is slowly kicked out and the pattern is favorable for additional amplified waves to come into the Southern Plains afterwards.
If this thing is shoved north much further, that could spell disaster for the Mississippi River communities, too.
Models show tremendous low-level moisture convergence along and ahead of the wave traversing the boundary on Wednesday with a 50kt+ LLJ nosing into it. They seem to be focusing that round along the 44/70 corridor...the biggest disagreement is the location of the initial hit of moderate/heavy rain Tuesday evening. EURO is further N across N/Central MO whereas the GFS is further S across the metro. Conceptually the EURO makes more sense with the boundary slowly sagging Sward. If the GFS is correct with an overlapping of these two waves, river and flash flooding potential will be extremely high, including the major rivers.
This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL.
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6