SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE-GUST RISK.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A ORGANIZED GUST FRONT/COLD POOL WITH A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL MO. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER E-CNTRL MO IS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 75 DEG F. A BELT OF 40-45 KT H5 FLOW PER AREA WSR-88D VAD DATA 00Z SGF/ILX RAOBS SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED-THUNDERSTORM THREAT FEATURING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE DESPITE SLOW COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF SWLY H85 FLOW OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AND WOULD PROMOTE A STRONG MOIST INFLUX INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THERE SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT 15-60 MINUTES.
There have been 41 tornado reports. Most of those have occurred in an area that was outside of the earlier slight risk outlooks today.
Was just looking at that to. Another rough one for the SPC
This ranks among the worst busts ever. Indiana wasn't even close to the 2% risk for tornadoes on the earlier outlooks. I saw a post in another forum that claimed this could be the biggest August tornado outbreak since official records began.
Post by STGOutdoors (weatherfan22stg) on Aug 25, 2016 6:47:12 GMT -6
I feel like we were getting to a really good place in terms of forecasting in the mid 2000's then suddenly dropped off. It's been atrocious as of late. It may very well be the detailing introduced into the models. I'm not that well versed in it, but it stands to reason that less could be more.
What is the word on the tropical situation? I looked at the GFS last night and it looked like a heat wave for the deep south in the 9-16
The GGEM shows 99L making landfall near the TX/LA border with the remnants moving up I-44. The ECMWF and GFS both show 99L moving towards the Florida Keys and then recurving east. The ECMWF shows the turn occurring later allowing the disturbance to enter the eastern GOM briefly before moving it back inland.
99L remains a poorly organized open wave struggling with dry air and lots of shear. Again, that's not necessarily a good thing as low level streamlines and the eastern/southeastern US ridge should guide the wave axis in a more westerly track. In fact most of the modeling the last couple runs is clustered through the straight between Florida and Cuba taking the wave into the Gulf. If there's anything left to develop by that time, and that may be a big if with possible land interaction on top of everything else, then that's where things could get interesting with plenty of warm water, higher mid level moisture and relaxed shear forecasted.
Last Edit: Aug 25, 2016 19:13:10 GMT -6 by jmg378s
I guess players should just start running standing up into the bag, grab the basemans glove with the ball in it and rip it off. But really there's no way he should of been safe
I understand MLB's ruling that the fielder must maintain possession of the ball and the glove, but what happens if it cannot be maintained due to getting stuck in the runner's equipment? I'm sure the fact that it was incidental factors in, but there's definitely a grey area there.
Post by lovableweatherguy on Aug 25, 2016 22:01:24 GMT -6
Some pretty intense storms tonight in Troy! Tons of lightning!!!
Ohh and Dave's Fall forecast pretty much is a let down. I sure hope he's wrong with temperatures. Hes calling for pretty much warm temps all 3 months. Little to no cold. Maybe a cool snap here or there. Moisture seems pretty typical for Sept..more dry then wet. October and November wetter.
I'm so sick of the heat and humidity that i was so ready for a cooler than normal Fall. But maybe not this yr!! Blah!!!!
I think it was what 2 years ago when the artic express opened up in November setting record cold temps across the nation. But then the rest of the winter sucked because the artic air sources never fully recovered
Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2016 23:06:37 GMT -6
Can see the light show all the way down here in Belleville. Very vivid display to the north. Pretty much continuous flashing with some flashes bright enough to case faint shadows from time to time. No thunder to be heard however. Almost creepy with clear skies overhead minus the thunderheads far to the north.
Fall forecast was as expected to be and with long range models like the GFS/CFS/GEM/EURO showing massive ridging over the eastern two thirds of the US. September looks like a scorcher, least we could get tropical remnants right at the month start and possibly again later on in the month. I think November especially the second half could have a treat for us. Halloween looks toasty at this stage in time however, but nice and dry. We'll see how long that holds.
Location: West Belleville (Approximately 1.5 Miles north, northwest of BTHSW, and .5 Mile east of Kmart)
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6