Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2017 13:47:45 GMT -6
Im not sold this will be a tornado outbreak yet. Yes, all the ingredients are there for strong tornadoes but i just dont think there will be enough discrete activity to have a large amount of tornado reports. Now if the line coming through later tonight can have discrete cells embedded in it then that could get dangerous. I fully expect tornado watches to go up in a few hours for most of the area
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from south central through northern AR into southern MO and subsequently expand east into southern IL and far west KY. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, very large hail and damaging wind may accompany some of the storms. A tornado watch will likely be needed for a portion of this region before 22Z.
DISCUSSION...As of early this afternoon the pre-frontal warm sector continues to destabilize over the lower to mid MS Valley. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will advect northward through the evening beneath plume of eastward-expanding steep mid-level lapse rates. RAP objective analysis currently indicates a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from MO through AR and eastern OK. A capping inversion at the base of the elevated-mixed layer, widespread middle to high clouds, and weak forcing for ascent have inhibited thunderstorm development so far. However, numerous breaks in the high clouds have evolved, and shallow cumulus development is evident across AR. WV imagery and RUC analysis implies a mid-level impulse moving through OK downstream from the primary shortwave trough located over the southern high plains. Thus a gradual increase in deeper forcing for ascent and differential heating in the boundary layer should eventually contribute to surface-based thunderstorm development in this region, and most CAM guidance indicate thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon. A southwesterly low-level jet will undergo a substantial increase during the evening with enlarged 0-1 km hodographs and strong effective bulk shear supporting fast moving supercells with low-level mesocyclones.
What's the plume on radar developing northeastward from about Pere Marquette State Park? Is there a brush fire, or is that birds or what ?
TDWR radar showed a little bit of something that was over northern STC county (north of old town St. Peters) around 1:50pm and moved in that direction. Doesn't seem like smoke to me but could either be virga or birds as my guess.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6