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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 18, 2019 22:05:36 GMT -6
Lots of rolling thunder here, no hail yet.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2019 22:06:49 GMT -6
Is that a small MCS near Tulsa?
This thing is packing a punch
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Post by RyanD on Jan 18, 2019 22:07:09 GMT -6
I guess I'm glad I'm south of town lol
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Post by RyanD on Jan 18, 2019 22:08:38 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning here. I'm not at all worried about tomorrow. If we get nothing then to be it but all this panicking is a bit premature.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 18, 2019 22:09:28 GMT -6
If you look at the 250mb chart and the 2PVU chart on COD from the 0Z GFS you can see what's happening. The northern low is staying semi-cohesive due to jet dynamics. The southern jet streak is anticyclonically curved so there's not much lifting action from it, but the northern jet streak will still have lift in the right rear entrance region. During this time the flow vectors are parallel to PV maxima to our southwest so there's not much column stretching taking place on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. However, by hour 18 the flow vectors become perpendicular off the PV maxima at about the same time the jet dynamics mechanisms wanes and so the that elongated 850mb mess of a low starts consolidating albeit a dollar short and day late.
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jan 18, 2019 22:12:05 GMT -6
For anyone who lives in Webster Groves / Shrewsbury... that was a loud lightning strike!
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johnboman
Weather Weenie
South St. Louis City ( Near The Hill )
Posts: 11
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Post by johnboman on Jan 18, 2019 22:12:50 GMT -6
Just at 10:10pm heard rumble of thunder near Towergrove Park at Odell & Kingshighway
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 18, 2019 22:13:07 GMT -6
The models are much stronge with the lead vorticity than even at 12z. That's probably what's causing the problem. And since this is literally happening right now. The only thing left to do is let this one go. Should I call it?
Time of death: 10:02pm
In all honesty I have no idea what will happen, but its getting tougher and tougher to ignore the model trend
It's time to bring in the defibrillator paddles. Clear!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:14:17 GMT -6
Hey, I was to young to remember. But didn't the storm of 82 Have thunderstorms before it turned into a all out snowstorm? Deep thoughts by Jack Handy can't speak for 1982. I was in college in Cape Girardeau. But the blizzard of '79 in Cape Girardeau had a lot of rain, and the forecast was for 1 to 2 inches of snow in the 10:00 pm kfvs forecast. That night, the cold front front came through - changed everything to snow...I've read several accounts - and apparently there was snow just to our north all night long....and thunder and lightning continued as the storm system became stacked and resembled an in-land hurricane. By the time reports were compiled by the stl wfo, things had already gotten out of hand (stl handled the forecast for Cape Girardeau at that time). I think things have gotten understood since that time that precludes a surprise like that....in terms of how upper level lows behaved, etc. But I have lingering doubts. I don't believe a 2 foot blizzard but I think this storm has surprises that are not predictable, and not handled by the models. I do know there were reports of thunderstorms the night before in the bootheel....I just don't see how we can take anything off the table. Glad I don't do this for a living.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2019 22:14:26 GMT -6
My god. The yard is muddier than after 6 inches of rain. How disgusting. F this sh1t.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 18, 2019 22:15:19 GMT -6
Maybe, But it was here In Eureka
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 18, 2019 22:15:50 GMT -6
Is it thundering down in Waterloo?
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Post by RyanD on Jan 18, 2019 22:16:23 GMT -6
There's no way the models are going to handle this well even now. It is a very messy setup. Why should we trust the models more when they show nothing? Yeah, it is much closer to the event but I see no reason up push the panic button yet.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 18, 2019 22:17:07 GMT -6
Distant thunder here in Mascoutah.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 18, 2019 22:18:55 GMT -6
Hey, I was to young to remember. But didn't the storm of 82 Have thunderstorms before it turned into a all out snowstorm? Deep thoughts by Jack Handy can't speak for 1982. I was in college in Cape Girardeau. But the blizzard of '79 in Cape Girardeau had a lot of rain, and the forecast was for 1 to 2 inches of snow in the 10:00 pm kfvs forecast. That night, the cold front front came through - changed everything to snow...I've read several accounts - and apparently there was snow just to our north all night long....and thunder and lightning continued as the storm system became stacked and resembled an in-land hurricane. By the time reports were compiled by the stl wfo, things had already gotten out of hand (stl handled the forecast for Cape Girardeau at that time). I think things have gotten understood since that time that precludes a surprise like that....in terms of how upper level lows behaved, etc. But I have lingering doubts. I don't believe a 2 foot blizzard but I think this storm has surprises that are not predictable, and not handled by the models. I do know there were reports of thunderstorms the night before in the bootheel....I just don't see how we can take anything off the table. Glad I don't do this for a living. I tend to agree Beaker! This is unusual to see thunderstorms in January with a temp in thug 30's. It is pouring here with tons of lightning like a summer's night. This is a volatile system and I think it may have some tricks up its sleeves.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 18, 2019 22:20:34 GMT -6
Now I can see lightning off to my southwest
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:24:18 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago.
Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 18, 2019 22:26:02 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. Sorry for your loss.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2019 22:29:15 GMT -6
3Z HRRR trying to get a small bit of hope up as it shifted west slightly, but only a tiny bit of hope.
Enough to tease the metro-east down to White Hall, MO.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 18, 2019 22:29:40 GMT -6
Hey, I was to young to remember. But didn't the storm of 82 Have thunderstorms before it turned into a all out snowstorm? Deep thoughts by Jack Handy can't speak for 1982. I was in college in Cape Girardeau. But the blizzard of '79 in Cape Girardeau had a lot of rain, and the forecast was for 1 to 2 inches of snow in the 10:00 pm kfvs forecast. That night, the cold front front came through - changed everything to snow...I've read several accounts - and apparently there was snow just to our north all night long....and thunder and lightning continued as the storm system became stacked and resembled an in-land hurricane. By the time reports were compiled by the stl wfo, things had already gotten out of hand (stl handled the forecast for Cape Girardeau at that time). I think things have gotten understood since that time that precludes a surprise like that....in terms of how upper level lows behaved, etc. But I have lingering doubts. I don't believe a 2 foot blizzard but I think this storm has surprises that are not predictable, and not handled by the models. I do know there were reports of thunderstorms the night before in the bootheel....I just don't see how we can take anything off the table. Glad I don't do this for a living. Agreed.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 18, 2019 22:30:54 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. Sorry for your loss Bud.
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:34:18 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. Sorry for your loss. Thank you. Best dog I have ever had by far. Awesome with kids and always playful. Sad, but it was time and last night took a turn for the worst. Glad he is pain free. Hard for the kiddos though and that is probably the worst part.
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 18, 2019 22:35:22 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. Sorry to hear. My fav part of storms is how kids and dogs are in it. RIP Pup
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Post by landscaper on Jan 18, 2019 22:35:40 GMT -6
I’m going to bed , I cannot wait to wake up to Friv and Belleville weathers posts throughout the night how the Hrrr and RAP are trending snowier by the hour and the whole metro is now going to get 1-3” by 3pm ... it’s fun to dream!
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:36:48 GMT -6
lots of thunder and lighting 30 minutes ago. Sadly had to put my 15 year old Husky down this evening. He loved snow...and was able to get out last weekend for a bit, but he had been suffering and it didn't last long...new his time was close. Maybe just maybe we can pull this out. Sorry for your loss Bud. Thank you. Appreciate the kid words.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 18, 2019 22:38:27 GMT -6
15 years is a long time for a big dog, a good long run! You’ll have good memories! We had quite a few in our lives that we have enjoyed! Always hard to give them up, but we usually know as do they when it’s time!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 18, 2019 22:38:38 GMT -6
I’m going to bed , I cannot wait to wake up to Friv and Belleville weathers posts throughout the night how the Hrrr and RAP are trending snowier by the hour and the whole metro is now going to get 1-3” by 3pm ... it’s fun to dream! Would be super fun
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2019 22:40:14 GMT -6
HRRR is really bombing out the low tomorrow
Down the 993mb at the end of its run
It has winds gusting over 40kts(45mph) across the area tomorrow afternoon
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:45:58 GMT -6
15 years is a long time for a big dog, a good long run! You’ll have good memories! We had quite a few in our lives that we have enjoyed! Always hard to give them up, but we usually know as do they when it’s time! Yeah, he was a trooper and always in good health. Vet commented she usually doesn't see them that old. even at the end it was age...his parts were just running out of steam. He new last night. Anyway on to happy thoughts and a overachieving storm tomorrow!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2019 22:47:19 GMT -6
Thank you. Best dog I have ever had by far. Awesome with kids and always playful. Sad, but it was time and last night took a turn for the worst. Glad he is pain free. Hard for the kiddos though and that is probably the worst part. 15 years....for a husky....you took care of your pet. He lived a full long life. There's never a good time, but take solace in the fact that he outlived and led a full happy life.
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