Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2019 10:12:09 GMT -6
Wow...euro at noon is important for determining adjustments but i think i wld stay with 1 to 2 and see what tomorrow holds. Alot of things are variable...with the cold front tomorrow and cooling advection in place, im thinking those models are too bullish on the waa.
Am I the only one that doesn’t think the GFS was a bad run? Seems to fit the going forecast to me.
Wave 1 looks pretty good that run. Big hit of WAA snow that transitions to freezing rain/drizzle as we lose ice crystal growth. That would make quite the mess
It definitely would be a mess but we would atleast have a pretty white scenery. Atleast we still see a descent accumulation of stuff which still support Chris’ going forecast if 1-3” and 3-5” north. Certainly would be nice to have a better phase 2 but I’d settle for that run right now and call it a day.
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 11:56:09 GMT -6
Im not looking at plumes... because Im out and about... but GFS ensemble snowfall has actually gone up a little over the metro in the last 12 hours over the 00z and 06z runs from what I can see. Not much from 006z.. but much more noticeable vs. the 00z run.
It then brings the second wave through with the shortwave much later.. but into Monday evening...with another 1" or so.
From a conceptual basis... the EURO fits my thinking better...and not just because the numbers look good here. This is not a classic GYB situation. You don't have a deepening shortwave... you have a shearing shortwave...so you really can't use GYB here. You have to look more at the components that are generating the actual lift. In this event there are two primary driving mechanisms that sandwich a third weaker one. You have WAA with the Sunday afternoon/night event...you have large scale lift and frontal forcing at mid-levels in advance of the shortwave...and sandwiched in between... weak/nebulous lift in weak WAA between the weakening/shearing LLJ and the shortwave...in the presence of a cold/moist low level topped by a dry slot at the top of the DGZ.
Based on what I've seen so far... I'm very happy with the forecast I have out there right now.
How is it that we are 48 hours away and the models still can’t decide if I am getting rain, freezing rain, sleet, or a little snow? This is a face off for the ages between gfs and euro.
This far out with the energy still off the coast... these kinds of differences aren't all that unusual.
It is interesting that there is once again a fairly large spread in the ensemble means with the 12z runs after having been pretty tightly clustered in the mean the past couple of runs. The Euro ensemble has shifted south..at least based on what I'm seeing through the first phase.
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6