Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2014 16:09:37 GMT -6
Without a doubt, forecasting heavy snow is one of the most challenging and one of the most important things we do. It is also unquestionably the most high visibility forecast we make. Miss the location of the heavy snow band by even 10 miles and you may end up forecasting 10" for a place that gets 2" or vice versa. The GOLD STANDARD for forecasting the location of the heavy snow band is the Gore-Younkin-Brown (GYB) technique. Do not be suckered into following model QPF placement as the models are more often than not WRONG! If you use GYB correctly, I guarantee it will get you much closer than any model QPF will. It has saved me countless times. But it MUST be applied correctly. Not every event is a good candidate using GYB.
Here is an excellent link with the basics of the GYB. Note, this only helps forecast the LOCATION of the band... not the amount!
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6