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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 23, 2024 20:26:35 GMT -6
I have been on here a long time and I truly have become a weather lover no matter the season and learned a lot! I’ll try and keep you informed as long as I can! Love you! We love you too Sue! RIP!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 23, 2024 19:43:41 GMT -6
I am so sad to share that MoSue passed away on April 19. Rest in peace Sue. Oh no! I'm just seeing this! I am so sorry Reb and thank you for sharing the news. It is hard to keep up with everybody on here. So many have been around for so long, but post infrequently. Others more often. But news like this reminds me how Morethanweatherstl is about more than weather. It's about all of you. I may have started this thing, but it's all of you who breath the life into it. You keep it going, you bring the passion. I may be mistaken, but this may be the first member of the group we've lost. That is for sure a sobering thought. But to MoSue's family and all of her friends... here and elsewhere... a heartfelt prayer of peace and comfort!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 19, 2024 16:52:55 GMT -6
What's a bore? Never heard that term Bore My wife says I'm a bore, but that's a different story.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 19, 2024 8:41:00 GMT -6
NWS has already confirmed three small, quick-hitting tornadoes.
Brookdale Farms EF1 Horseshoe Lake EF0 High Ridge EF0
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 21:35:59 GMT -6
Anything to this screenshot i was sent? Scud. The rotation was near Belleville at 6pm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 20:36:08 GMT -6
Definitely a tornado south of Prairetown. Damage to a farm south of town is extensive.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 14:29:49 GMT -6
Watching the I-70 cooridor closely into metro STL and just south into Jefferson County the next several hours as these storms move into the metro. Violent Tor Parameter is maxed out at 3 in that area... which is not insignificant.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 13:08:17 GMT -6
As of 2pm, the NAM is too juicy with TDs near STL... TDs in low 60s whereas NAM has it 67. Meanwhile, the HRRR is closer...but looks too dry in the Ozarks. So the TD trends point to more instability than HRRR but not as high as HRRR. Overall, I think that will help keep a lid on the TOR possibilities somewhat...at least until the storms jump off the Ozark Plateau and get near the Mississippi River. It also favors the damaging wind potential. Especially with steep low level lapse rates and drier sub-cloud layer.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 9:31:29 GMT -6
I didn't find them... but I'm also wondering why you sent them? Did I miss something? Is there a question about them? I just remember you saying if anyone had screenshots of that event to send them to you. I had just ran across this pic and tried, unsuccessfully, to send it to you. No biggie. Ahhhhhhhhh.... Ok, thank you!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 18, 2024 8:31:37 GMT -6
Chris, I just found a screenshot of 4/2/24 Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Sent it via PM. I didn't find them... but I'm also wondering why you sent them? Did I miss something? Is there a question about them?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 17, 2024 22:37:25 GMT -6
For me, the biggest question is how far will overnight MCS progress to the east and southeast and what impact does that have on the effective boundary. A couple of themes we see repeated frequently with these types of events... 1) Models are very often too slow moving the line of storms east and south 2) Models weaken the initial MCS too quickly and underestimate the southeast penetration of the effective boundary 3) Models... especially the NAM/NAM3k are way too generous with the low level moisture and fail to capture mixing that drops surface dew points. The HRRR is strongly hinting at this... although it too has a history of drying out the low levels too quickly at times.
So... I'm going to work on the idea that the early MCS will be faster moving and end up further south... but I don't want to get too aggressive with that considering the overwhelming support for slower/conservative overnight MCS motion. I'm also going to knock down the NAM dew points a little bit. The end result is a focus zone for severe storms that is roughly along and south of I-70 with a main focus on southeast Missouri into Southern Illinois. Metro STL is included in that region of concern... although it is on the far northwestern edge.
I'm thinking widespread wind damage with gusts of 60-80 mph possible...in addition to a few small, fast hitting tornadoes and a few pockets of large hail. The wind potential is actually highlighted in the drier skew T's with an inverted V signature in some of the model data. Those larger dew point depressions below the cloud level will encourage evaporational cooling and parcel acceleration as rain falls into the lower Td air mass. Greater low level moisture will increase the tornado potential by increasing SBCAPE.
Timing... our northwest counties may see storms as early as 10am-noon....whatever is left of the overnight MCS. That boundary will either generate new storms... or re-intensify as it moves south and east early in the afternoon. Either way, an intensifying broken line of storms or LEWPS will march quickly southeast across eastern Missouri and southern Illinois sometime between 2pm and 6pm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 17, 2024 12:47:38 GMT -6
By the way, Chris posed the question a few days ago about whether the SPC probabilities were helpful or confusing to the general public. And I agree that those probability numbers are likely confusing for the general public and I would add to that that the VAST majority of people have no idea at all what those values actually represent. To make matters worse a mere 13% in those tornado probabilities can be the difference between barely any risk and particularly dangerous situation. I do think the risk categories are helpful though...well...expect maybe the category names could use some tweaking (particularly Enhanced vs. Moderate). Change is DEFINITELY coming! I was part of a focus group working with the Hazardous Weather Testbed just yesterday addressing both the percentages and categorical lables. They are going to change within the next couple of years as part of a major new website and interactive tool rollout! I can't comment on what I learned except that change is coming and I think we will like it for the most part.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 17, 2024 7:59:08 GMT -6
It is a "Windy-Wednesday" in St. Louis! Gusts so far have been bumping up into the high 30 mph range in spots. That may decrease a little for a while and then ramp up again somewhat this afternoon. Either way... it's a windy day with bursts of higher gusts at times. There will be a somewhat elevated wildfire risk today as a result of the winds and dry air sweeping across the region.
The next system of interest is a strong cold front that will cross the area tomorrow. Originally, the threat for severe storms with this front looked to be focused well to our south... but some of the latest trends have nudged that back north a bit. I think the SPC Level 2 outlook for tomorrow has come a bit too far north... I do think areas along and south of I-70 will have the greatest risk for severe weather tomorrow... from late morning through early evening.
The Thursday Breakdown.... There could be two rounds of storms with this system. The first will come with a complex of thunderstorms that is expected to develop late tonight over northwest Missouri and track southeast reaching metro STL around noon or shortly thereafter. This round of storms will be capable of strong wind gusts over central Missouri but should weaken as it approaches the metro. As this first round clears the area a second round of storms will try and develop over central Missouri... and follow along behind the first round... only slightly further to the south. This round will initially be capapble of very large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. The risk zone with this second round of storms during the afternoon and early evening will be south of I-70... so over the southern 1/3d to 1/2 of the viewing (which goes down into Reynolds and Iron Counties). Between the two, our region will be under the risk of some sort of severe weather from late in the morning through early evening... roughly 10am to 8pm.
The details for tomorrow are very much a work in progress and will be greatly influenced by how long the first round of storms survives. I could see a scenario where that midday round of storms is THE round of storms and supresses everything else back into far southern Missouri...which is where I expected it to be based on previous guidance. That is the best case scenario for most of our viewing area of course.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 16, 2024 23:31:33 GMT -6
Chris, I just found a screenshot of 4/2/24 Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Sent it via PM. Im confused? I dont see a message.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 13, 2024 8:13:47 GMT -6
I am not a fan of posting percentage chances of severe for the public to digest because I think most people see "wow, it's only 10%, why should I care?" I especially hare it for tornado probs... "only 5% chance of tor near me? Im not paying attention.. call me when its 60, 70 or 80" Am I the only one who feels those percentages are confusing?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 12, 2024 6:40:30 GMT -6
Tuesday has my attention. Still plenty of questions, but it has that severe weather look to it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 9, 2024 0:03:48 GMT -6
Wow... what a day! I am finally home. I saw both 2017 and this year's and agree this was better! For starters, it wasn't hot and humid... it was mild and dry...just perfect weather! Hanging with the SLU meteorology students, launching balloons, was a blast! The greatness of the day was not tarnished by the nearly 7 hour drive home! Traffic was BRUTAL! But nobody was too riled up about. I thought everyone went with the flow... riding the high from the eclipse. We were definitely blessed with an amazing day. I cannot lie, I actually teared up a little at the fact that I was so priveleged to be part of it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2024 19:38:46 GMT -6
Thank you all! I always know I can count on this group for an assist! Did the outage effect the offices or do they have to go through the same server? NWS offices had visualization on the data... but they could not issue warnings. We (and the public as a whole) had no data and did not receive warnings. The NWS posted screen shots in our chatroom of radar and hand drew warning polygons and cute stick figures to show us where the warnings/tornadoes were located. Then, as the system tried to come back up, all the blocked warnings they tried to issue came flying out all at once... so we had a wall of warnings pop-up 50 miles behind the QLCS and about an hour after they had been issued. The radar data would come up and work for a volume scan then go down for 30 minutes. It was very frustrating and very challenging because it was impossible to trust the data we were receiving from radar.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2024 19:25:24 GMT -6
Can someone please post the NWS link to the Chesterfield tornado from last night? I found the story on our favorite station, and a badly pixelated map on another source, but I would like to see the actual NWS story. Thanks all.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2024 15:17:39 GMT -6
Thank you all!
I always know I can count on this group for an assist!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2024 13:48:35 GMT -6
Do any of you have a screen grab of the radar status page when it was nearly all red last night?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 2, 2024 2:21:00 GMT -6
That was one crazy night. Not because of how bad the storms were... but because I was parked in front of the QLCS with no idea what was coming at me because of the radar/data outage. That was not a feeling I care to repeat anytime soon.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 21:39:11 GMT -6
Almost no wind with the storm as it arrives in Union.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 19:52:00 GMT -6
It's going to be interesting to see how this next wave of storms reacts to the increasing LLJ. I expect it to get pretty rough over southeast Missouri...and not that far south of St. Louis. Timing wise does this look to develop in next couple hours ? Are you thinking after midnight ? I hate night time storms! Existing activity SHOULD increase in organization as it spreads east and builds south into the strengthening LLJ. Also... I can't help but be interested in tomorrow afternoon southeast of STL in southern IL. We may end up with some low top supercells down there tomorrow ahead of the front if we clear out for a time.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 19:33:12 GMT -6
It's going to be interesting to see how this next wave of storms reacts to the increasing LLJ. I expect it to get pretty rough over southeast Missouri...and not that far south of St. Louis.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 14:29:03 GMT -6
Tornado watch coming shortly for west and southwest Missouri. I don't think it will get any of our counties... but it might clip one or two to the southwest/west.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 13:54:06 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 11:58:58 GMT -6
Still a very messy set up especially for this afternoon. Round 2 seems to be a little more straight forward.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 8:29:23 GMT -6
Well, the lack of morning convection and breaks in the overcast helps clear things up a bit more this morning as we look ahead into this afternoon and this evening and tonight. In an attempt to make this forecast as digestable as possible, I think it's best to break the day into two, maybe three "events" or "rounds"... even though in reality round 1 may lead straight into round 2...or there may be some down time between the two. Round 1 - This afternoon (1pm to 6pm) The stationary front is the focus... which means areas near/north of I-70 are the concern. Here, some isolated storms are likely to develop and these are likely to be rotating storms in the mid-levels at the very least... so large hail jumps up on the list. With the amount of mid-level instability I would not be suprised to see some very large hail in this round of storms... up to basball sized hail. Also, there is some potential that one of these storms could anchor into the PBL near the front and become surface or near surface based. This ramps up the tornado potential. Typically, warm fronts/stationary fronts really get my attention...because of the strongly backed low level winds. However, just above the backed winds the 850mb flow is fairly weak this afternoon which may mitigate the tornado potential some along the warm front. But still, it's a warm front so let's watch it closely...as the amount of instability may be enough to overcome the lack of wind in the low levels. Round 2 - Evening into the Overnight (8pm to 2am) For most of the region, this will be the main event. This will be a broken line of thunderstorms/storm line segments that will be capable of producing intense winds up to 70-80 mph, golf ball sized hails and a number of fast moving QLCS type tornadoes. The most concerning part of this line will end up being where it intersects the front and/or any outflow boundaries that have been pushed south from round 1. In fact, the biggest unknown to me is how Round 1 may still impact the playing field for round 2. Conceptually, the greater threat for round 2 should shift a bit more to the south thanks to the push of rain cooled air from round 1. Overall, the SPC outlook looks pretty good given what we know at this time.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 31, 2024 7:17:35 GMT -6
Happy Easter Everyone!
Tomorrow continues to be a severe weather day, but with caveats and very conditional...especial as youbmove into central Missouri. I thnk it is more likely the high end potential, if it get's realized, ends up further south across southern Missouri... but it's too early still to pin that down with any confidence. I understand what SPC is saying... but I think they may be too generous with the size and northeastward extent of the enhanced. We will see. In their defense, I'm sure they have had more time to do a deeper look than I have. Bottomline, some severe weather is possible tomorrow, so be weather aware!
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