Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 19, 2017 11:11:53 GMT -6
I have to say the Euro is an interesting solution but looks suspect to me. I think the GFS (gasp) has a more realistic look in how it scoops up the southern stream and sweeps it east vs throwing the breaks on the entire pattern ala the Euro
So... should I jinx the winter and buy new truck tires now or hold off until the last possible moment??? On a side note... after the rain Sunday morning, the deer were really moving good that afternoon and evening. I think they were ready for the cool down.
I've been seeing a lot of deer here in the Harvester area lately. They're encroaching into the denser residential subdivsions which I've never seen them do before. I even saw them hanging out right next the local KFC here a couple of weeks ago. I suppose they like The Colonel's chicken recipe.
Two doors down from my house....saw an ENORMOUS buck in the front yard last night as I was pulling into my driveway. I couldn't tell how many points... but the thing was massive.
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 14, 2017 18:30:41 GMT -6
SPC issued a new meso talking up storm intesification...but think that window is rapidly closing...especially considering the outflow dominant nature of the convection right now. Instability will be diminishing slowly the rest of the evening...so i think we may be reaching or about to reach max intensity.
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 13, 2017 20:44:18 GMT -6
The evening data is continuing to highlight KC to Kirksville. If contamination from late night storms does not muddy the water with outflows... I think an upgrade may be needed if nothing changes. It will be a pretty limited temporal/spatial window for severe.
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 9, 2017 7:40:46 GMT -6
***The potent storm that is bringing snow to Denver this morning will bring a chance of a few strong to severe storms Tuesday for some of our area***
Areas of fog this morning will burn off to mostly sunny skies. Summer is back with temperatures today surging well into the 80s.
A small, fairly fast moving storm system that is producing snow in Denver today, will spread a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the region late tonight through Tuesday. Storms late tonight could produce a lot of lightning, brief downpours and some small hail.
There will likely be a lull in storm activity after about 9am Tuesday until early afternoon. The wind set-up in the atmosphere is supportive of a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon....depending on the amount of sunshine after the morning storms and how quickly the atmosphere is able to heat back up. This is a somewhat marginal set-up.
The potential does exist Tuesday afternoon for a few isolated storms to produce some stronger wind gusts, hail...and maybe even a tornado or two. The zone of greatest concern will be from STL metro south and east...or roughly in the triangle along/south of I-64...and along east of I-55. (SEE GRAPHIC)
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2017 21:37:40 GMT -6
If the NAM is to be believed, we may be looking at a severe/tornado threat from low topped super cells Tuesday afternoon. I have little confidence in this fine a detail this far out...but...the NAM does show a narrow corridor of elevated SBCAPE (1k-2k j/kg) along the MS River from STL to the southest... with impressive bulk shear values of 70kts! SRH values are highest from STL to the north...displaced from the max CAPE....but underneath the strong bulk shear. The SIGTOR parameter is even peaking over 1 in a narrow ribbon from STL southeast along I-64.
Again...way too early to give more than a cursory interest to these values...but synoptically...it is a pattern that looks supportive of some isolated low topped super cells Tuesday.
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2017 9:55:18 GMT -6
Yeah... fast moving Nate will be onshore...possibly before midnight. Effects are likely to be more like a heafty derecho due to the compressed timeframe. The amount of time any one location sees hurricane force winds will be fair brief...probably 30-40 minutes I would think.
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 5, 2017 16:17:06 GMT -6
Looking ahead to next week... the model solutions from all models look different with every run. I honestly don't think I have seen any consistency at all in the trends past Monday. Every run is totally different.
It's still quite a ways out, but the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles are showing ridging over the Rocky Mountains and troughing in the Ohio Valley on Oct. 12th. There's certainly nothing that screams severe weather but there's plenty of time for things to change.
I had to go back through the forum to find it. It was March 27th, 2014 that Scott AFB (with Chris' direct involvement) issued a tornado watch for MO in which 8 tornadoes occurred easily verifying the watch.
Yup. That was my baby. The one and only Tornado Watch issued by the USAF for SPC (so far).
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 2, 2017 9:51:57 GMT -6
I am going to remain pessimistic in terms of rain chances with this pattern. Yes, there is a fair period of time where some rain is possible later this week...but I don't see amounts or coverage being enough to help much with the dry conditions across this part of the state. Western MO up into IA...and back to KS...more rain there...but I expect things will dry up heading east.
Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 16, 2017 10:26:39 GMT -6
Well... we may have hot and humid weather this weekend here...but the first signs of the swing to fall are showing up in the northern Rocky Mountains. Check out this webcam view from the Grand Targhee Resort on the western slopes of the Tetons!
As for Jose... I think a brush with Cape Cod is the worst we can expect there...but time will tell.
As for future "Maria" that may be a big issue for the Virgin Islands and perhaps later on the Carolina Coast. That is a LONG way off though.
gonefishin: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6