Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2017 23:11:14 GMT -6
FINISHED! I just turned in my 10 page paper with a few minutes to spare...now I can really focus on the eclipse.
Those are some hellish storms up in Iowa...that so far have not shown any trend to bend south...and are instead lifting a bit north. PLEASE let that continue. The 00z models have all improved the outlook for tomorrow...so there is hope. We just have to wait and see where things stand in the morning.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2017 19:14:15 GMT -6
The latest runs of the RUC and HRRR are showing signs of hope with very little convection in eastern MO and southern IL and decided decrease in the amount of cloud cover by midday. Fingers crossed that model trend becomes the observational trend.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2017 17:35:46 GMT -6
I kind of think we need to root for more convection in SW MO like we have right now overnight. It is possble storms down there could intercept/redirect activity from the north and create a more favorable focus to our west late tonight. That cold give us more of a window of dry wx around midday tomorrow. I am wishcasting..but it is possible.
Got out the telescope the other day to get it ready for the eclipse. Can not find the sun screen for it so had to improvise. You can see the series of sunspots in the middle of the sun if you look close enough. (Picture really doesn't do it justice.) I am just hoping tomorrow will be as nice as today after a rocky start.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2017 11:51:48 GMT -6
We can hope for better... but given the current data...I think the BEST we can expect to see tomorrow is what we have outside right now...a real mixed bag of post convective debris clouds and some isolated to scattered redevelopment.
Time to thow it out there. Any thoughts on Nebraska? I am leaning towards going.
I'm thinking if you're willing to get all the way to central or western NE you might be ok. But as of the 12z model runs I'd be wary of southeast NE and northwest MO.
I agree, I think you would be much better off taking the shorter drive down to western Kentucky or even to Nashville.
I'm in the middle of writing a long paper on national security for the Air Force this weekend that is due tomorrow night at midnight (YUCK!) so I've been buried in research most of today. But what I've seen of the 00z models doesn't look quite as bad as the 12z models did. The ridging at 700mb is especially encouraging on the GFS. The potential of orographically forced convection over the eastern Ozarks continues to be a concern...but I'm going to keep the chance for thunderstorms out of the forecast for the eclipse period for now. I'm banking on the eclipse hitting and passing before things get going (I hope). It really will be interesting to see how/if the drop in solar radiation will impact if, where and when convection forms. To me, that may be the most interesting part of this event.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 19, 2017 9:22:28 GMT -6
There will be some disappointed folks in spots Monday as the models are getting more in line with the idea of more clouds than sunshine. I'm going to go ahead and refine my viewing forecast from "Marginal to Good" to "Marginal to Fair" In reality...I might have to consider adding "poor in spots" as we get closer. I think the cloud cover to sun ratio will be something like 60/40.
I'm hoping the eclipse itself will help manage the expansion of afternoon cu early in the afternoon.
I also think there is a very real chance the shadow may contribute to afternoon convection in narrow bands along it's edges. That will be cool to watch
I'm starting to see some small puffy cumulus around. This is what would drive you nuts on Monday.
Fortunately, this is also the stuff that is most likely to be affected by the shadow and dissipate.
There is some conjecture that the differential heating boundary created by the eclipse could become a focus of isolated convection itself as a vertical circulation develops similar to a sea breeze front...where the cooler air from the shadow flows outward and displaces the hot/humid air on the warm side of the temperature discontinuity. Wouldn't that be cool to see!
In reply to Chris from the last thread and Jeffmw. I read an article that 99.99 totality will be nowhere near the experience of 100 percent. Because that. 01 is still 1000x brighter than a full moon. Sorry i don't have a reference, but maybe some one can confirm or deny that.
That is correct. It is still a pretty awesome experience...but to be in totality is still a far better experience for sure! Definitely worth the trip south.
This is the information from NASA for Aiprort Road and Delwood in Ferguson...
Lat.: 38.7485° N Long.: 90.3069° W Partial Solar Eclipse Magnitude: 0.997 Obscuration: 99.86% Event Date Time (UT) Alt Azi Start of partial eclipse (C1) : 2017/08/21 16:49:46.3 58.4° 143.3° Maximum eclipse : 2017/08/21 18:18:01.8 62.9° 187.4° End of partial eclipse (C4) : 2017/08/21 19:43:59.9 55.1° 226.2
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 17, 2017 23:24:21 GMT -6
Here you go... the new thread just in time to ramp us up into the Great American Solar Eclipse.
I wish I could say that I had absolute confidence in a cloud free forecast and we should all get ready to party....but such is not the case.
The 00z models have done nothing to push me from my original forecast of "Mix of clouds and sun" with "Marginal to Good Viewing Conditions"
I do question some of the more extreme temperature drop forecasts I've been hearing. I heard (or read...not sure which) somebody saying 15-20 drop would be common. Maybe if we were under a huge dome of surface high pressure with clear skies...but that will not be the case. I think 8-12 will be the best we can muster. Remember, we sometimes can't get STL to drop 10° after HOURS of clear skies on a late summer night...I don't have any reason to believe we would do any better than that with only roughly two hours of solar deficit (more outgoing vs. incoming radiation). So... with the combination of clouds, humid air, etc. I'm going for a high of 90...near 11am...then temps dropping to about 80° about 20 minutes after totality...then a slow but steady rebound after that. I'm not sold on the idea of us getting back up as warm as we were before...but we might. It will be fascinating to see how temperatures, clouds, etc. react to the loss of solar radiation.
I will be at JB park all day handing our coverage from there. I'll also be doing two hits with KMOX live from JB park. If you are in the neighborhood... come by and hang out with us!
The 12Z GFS and CMC show that convective activity to the northwest Sunday night pretty far south. The blowoff from that could be an issue. Last night's ECMWF/UKMET had that MCS further north.
Here are my top concerns right now in no particular order.
1. Blowoff from an MCS 2. High level cirrus from the monsoon pump in the southwest 3. Thermally forced diurnal cumulus
We might be able to manage with thin cirrus. It's often thin enough to see the sun, but I'm not sure how much it would filter out the corona though. The diurnal cumulus could be workable as well since it tends to be scattered anyway, but if you're a mobile observe you might be able to position yourself for a line of sight. That's assuming coverage isn't too dense. And we don't really know for sure to what extent the eclipse will have in suppressing them, but it might help some. The blowoff from an MCS could be a real problem depending on how dense and expansive it is and whether it can dissipate before 1pm. The GFS and CMC suggest that it could be quite an obstruction where it ends up.
I think Chris' forecast of "marginal to good" sets expectations better than "mostly sunny" wording. It's better to set expectation low and be thrilled with a good view than to advertise that all is well and end up missing out. Just my opinion...
" That is exactly my thinking bdgwx! I want folks to be mentally ready for a less than perfect view. It also makes for a less jarring transition if things go further downhill.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 16, 2017 11:50:26 GMT -6
Well...judging by the rapid organization of convection in western Missouri...I have to wonder if the models are WAAAAAY off on their timing of a main event. That line looks pretty well put together and with building instability ahead of it...this may the main event vs. new development further west. The implication is first... a fast moving line of storms arriving late this afternoon as opposed to late this evening...far faster than any solution hints at. Then the potential implications of a scrubbed atmosphere ahead of the main front tonight...with limited redevelopment.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 16, 2017 10:39:13 GMT -6
HRRR is showing an interesting set-up coming east along the Missouri river late this evening. It shows potential for meso-vortex formation near or just south of the Missouri River from near Jeff City east into Gasconade county before the apparent QLCS becomes more outflow dominant and "gusts out" further east. Good orientation of the shear vectors to the line...a consistent forecast of a boundary intersection near or just south of the Missouri River...and enough SBcape to make it interesting. It even shows a pocket of higher UH in that region. It has shown this solution for a couple of runs now to different degrees. It will be interesting to watch to see if it comes to pass.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 16, 2017 10:04:00 GMT -6
May get some stronger wind gusts with storms late this evening over our western viewing area...out closer to Herman...back to COU. Not sure how far east the strong wind potential will last. But if we get a decent cold/outflow push...it is conceivable a surge of stronger winds may still accompany the weakening line of storms as it heads east. Arguing against that is the rather moist profile that exists in advance of the storms...so not much evaporation potential aloft.
Chris as you I live in Ferguson I checked the site out according to that I wont have to go anywhere. Can you double check for me?
Ferguson is definitely NOT in totality. If you want to full effect you will need to go south. Even a small sliver will take away from the effect. In fact... the line of totality is very near Page avenue and then curls southeast to south of Downtown STL.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 15, 2017 13:07:06 GMT -6
12z model data continues to keep at least a healthy mix of clouds/sun for Monday...and there is even a low probability of convection...especially north and west of STL. I still like the "solid mix of clouds and sun" wording with continued mention of cloud concerns. I just feel the need to manage expectations this far out. If a patch of clouds moves over your viewing location for the 5-10 minutes of totality...you won't see it. That could happen across 30-50% of viewing area in my opinion. It's hard enough to forecast precip trends at 6 days...but trying to quantify cloud cover for a specific window of 1 hour or less is impossible.
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 14, 2017 9:19:05 GMT -6
Good morning all... all eyes are on next Monday...and at 7 days out there is still A LOT that is very sketchy. I am choosing to go with a somewhat pessimistic first look...at least in terms of cloud cover. We are talking about an event that will last only a matter of minutes...and the probability of clouds getting in the way seems pretty high. I can't rule out a little rain/thunderstorm action with a wave that wraps around the ridge...but I'm not even looking that deep. Right now, I'm just concerned with clouds...and I'm seeing a pattern that will support a good deal of clouds...mixed with some sun. I think painting too nice a picture at this time frame might be a mistake...and being more realistic with guarded concerns about clouds may be better. Then again... there is the unknown of how much (if any) will the shadow impact the CU development that day. That is wildcard that could help "clear the way" so to speak for a better forecast. Time will tell.
For now... my official forecast..."Some concerns about the amount of clouds mixing with the sun... temperatures in the 80s"
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 12, 2017 10:17:07 GMT -6
By the way, for those who are wondering... I am co-hosting the station's coverage of the eclipse with Mandy from our watch party at JB Park. So, if you're in the neighborhood...stop by and see us! I will be running around like a chicken with my head cut-off...juggling TV, facebook and the stage show... but it should be a fun day.
Crazy how fast this summer is winding down... I got mums due in next week pumpkins less than a month away and my Christmas tree order needs to be in by aug 31st... Also Even Better News We Are Having A little Baby Girl Sept. 20th is due date :-)
Hopefully She Gets To See Her First Snowfall This Season!
Hey was wondering I know not to aim the camera on the phone at the Eclipse but what if I tape the filter glasses to the camera lense could that work?
Though crude, NASA actually says it's ok to do what you're asking here.
As BWG said, DON'T do this with an SLR camera.
Yes, it actually works quite well with a cell phone. I took a pair of our eclipse glasses and cut-out one of the eyes and taped it over my cell phone camera. Took a reasonably clean picture of the sun yesterday and it turned out pretty well.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6