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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 30, 2024 22:03:03 GMT -6
Happy Easter to All! No time for big graphics package tonight... just a few thoughts to get this new thread rolling....
Severe weather season has arrived in the Midwest and our next weather system of interest is on track for Monday into Monday night. The risk of severe weather remains on the table for Monday into Monday night. However, there are some potential limiting factors and points of significant uncertainty. First is a strong capping inversion over the warm sector. It will take some strong low-level convergence and/or upper-level support to break that and tap into what should be a moist and unstable atmosphere below. Also, recent trends have been to bring out a more sheared and disorganized low-level system overall and that will limit the amount of directional shear. Another recent trend from the NAM does not come as a big surprise… and that is a slower penetration of the cold front to the south. That appears to be, at least in part, due to the weaker surface waves. Given the latest trends I still see a severe threat across the entire region for Monday into Monday night… mainly from hail and damaging winds. I cannot rule out some QLCS type tornadoes in bowing segments that can become aligned more northwest to southeast…gaining a better angle with the shear vectors. I’m not sure this is set-up… if it remains the same as it looks right now… will merit more than a slight risk (Level 2). Obviously, that could change as the set-up becomes clearer. A more robust low-level system that can back the low-level winds more and increase the overall low level wind speeds will definitely up the potential. I’m not saying there won’t be any severe weather, just that it may not have the high end potential that appeared possible a few days ago. We just need to keep watching to see how the key elements come together.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 30, 2024 10:02:04 GMT -6
Some awesome weather right now! Most of the action tonight and tomorrow will be north of I-70... by quite a bit. I expect tge metro and south to be mainly dry through the weekend. The exception may be tonight as the bubbling of overnight storms may begin as far south as STL before ... but before they really ramp up into hailers. That threat appears to just hug my northern counties before the lift kicks away to the northeast.
Easter will be kind of muggy with the front lifting back north. The background pattern certainly looks favorable Monday for severe storms... but as BRTN points out, alot of things could squelch storms in this setup. Either way, more beneficial rain is on the way... and dependingbon the evolution, maybe excessive rain in some cases.
Have a great weekend! I do plan a new thread later today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 25, 2024 13:27:34 GMT -6
Steady as she goes 😁
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 15, 2024 6:50:23 GMT -6
Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is. Kinda weird that it was showing as observed and a pds on radarscope but no report. There are 2 surveys this morning. One near Brighton but I think that was from the morning. Don't remember where the other is but it wasn't maeystown EM reported there was nothing in Maeystown. I think both surveys are from the AM. Other is Charlack in north County.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 15, 2024 6:47:04 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s. I can understand holding back on the 7am update, but by 11am the outflow was retreating and skies had cleared out completely. For all the enhanced risks that are issued for less than ideal set-ups, the ultra conservative approach to yesterday's event is/was surprising.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 14, 2024 9:21:20 GMT -6
Tough to be away and relax on beach today! But it is more humid here on the Florida panhandle today, a sign of the return flow amping up!
Good luck with the afternoon storms. It looks pretty nasty with the setup of the retreating outflow coming north. Tornado and large hail threat is very real today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2024 21:17:01 GMT -6
I have an old co-worker out in Tahoe area. He’s got 2 feet on the ground with another 5 feet coming. Insane snows out there Meh
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2024 8:24:14 GMT -6
Prayers from my weather friends would be appreciated. My sister is having knee replacement today. This has been a very long road getting here. She called at 3 a.m. Apparently she is allergic to the gel they wanted her to put on pre surgery. Hopefully this is the only stumbling block today. Hope all goes well Reb! MTW is praying for her!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 23:10:45 GMT -6
Perfectly happy for the cap to win.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 22:34:50 GMT -6
Storm south of DeSoto needs to be watched. But I think the front is going to beat it here. Yeah. That is the only thing actually on the front. Everything else is behind it and elevated. The cap is wining the battle to this point.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 21:44:22 GMT -6
appears to be a developing super cell near Rola. That may be the big show of the night right there.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 21:18:18 GMT -6
Here comes the watch...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 19:59:06 GMT -6
Tornado watch coming soon for southern Illinois.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 18:52:58 GMT -6
Winds have backed at Scott AFB to more southeasterly. If storms can break through the cap... yikes!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 18:30:49 GMT -6
Moisture boundary is tightening up... which is resulting in a retreat of the dryline to the west a bit. It may end up right on top of STL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 27, 2024 16:22:30 GMT -6
It does appear we broke the record for February at 86. Severe threat will be southeast and east of St. Louis.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 26, 2024 21:37:21 GMT -6
Wow... that was quite the weekend! But, the Higgins family is safely moved into our new home. Now we begin the long process of unpacking and further purging! The stuff you accumulate when you live in the same house for 23 years is amazing! We were blessed with a great moving crew and amazing weather!
Now let's talk about tomorrow. I think there is an outside chance some of the region will approach 90! The HRRR and RAP have shown a significant amount of mixing of the shallow moisture over the Ozark plateau thanks to the warm, dry, southwest wind. The NAM is much more generous with its moisture supply. I really think the RAP and HRRR are on to something with the drying trends. They crater the Tds into the 30s and low 40s by early afternoon. The NAM, on the other hand does not mix away the low level moisture and in turn keeps the moisture bottled up below the inversion. Obviously two vastly different outcomes. The former screams over-performing temperatures under sunny skies with very gusty winds. The later favors more clouds, higher humidity and a chance for severe storms ahead of the front.
The HRRR and RAP show an entirely unidirectional flow from the ground up with a very straight hodograph. This explains the rapid drying as such a flow would allow the dry/warm air aloft to easily mix to the surface and devour the PBL moisture. The NAM is known for being too moist and producing too much low level cloud cover. So I'm leaning more towards something more like the HRRR and RAP. Maybe not quite THAT dry. However, if the RAP/HRRR solution is correct, with that southwest wind blowing out off the Ozark Plataea... we may be looking at a blow torch kind of day with unprecedented warmth for February.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2024 22:40:14 GMT -6
Very cool! Interesting smell in the air tonight. It's smoke from wildfires in Arkansas based on satellite imagery.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2024 16:36:42 GMT -6
Who knows, still almost 2 months of snow season left. Anyone know what happened to the SSW event that was supposed to happen this week? It's in progress. Models were showing another burst of warming developing into early March which would help the vortex remain weak and stretched. Should be some cold air sloshing around next month...where it goes remains to be seen. At this point, I'm ok if the cool downs only last a day or two at a time. I can get used to these mild days.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2024 22:39:36 GMT -6
Rain forecasts are given in increments of .1 or .25 or larger. Increments for snow amount to .01 or .02 of water. That's a pretty fine line to hit compared to the rain prediction. I don't think the general public understands that. I disagree with this. General snow ratios give 2-3 inches. That is 0.2-0.3 inches of QPF given 10-1 ratios. QPF is less in the winter. It’s not that bad. I think a big part of it is that when it comes to rain, there is nowhere near the attention to how much rain actually falls... 0.10, 0.20, 0.40... to the average person they will not notice much of a difference... nor do most people care. I'm careful to say most because there are certain sectors that do care very much. But the general public really doesn't start paying attention to rainfall amounts until it gets to soaking the ground, mud making, raining out games or creates flooding. As forecasters, we aren't asked for the same level of detail or accuracy when it comes to rainfall as people expect with snowfall. Which is funny when you think about it, because forecasting snow is about the hardest thing we do in weather. I think the fact that everybody can see the pile of snow in their yard... they can immediately go out and measure the snow and say "this is what I got IMBY" That is not the case in rainfall. Many people do not have rain gauges and when the rain is over... out of sight out of mind! I do 100% agree that people treat "Advisories" and "Warnings" as status symbols... and if you don't get one issued for you the weather will have no impact. I think that is one reason the NWS is in the process of investigating getting rid of many/all advisories and just going Watch or Warning. They want the forecast to take back the top billing and not a headline. I'm not sure I like the idea... but I do understand it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2024 18:17:05 GMT -6
Hey team... I will be in ghost mode this week. The Higgins family is moving! It's only a few miles, but it might as well be across the country. I hate packing. I hate dust. I hate unpacking. And it is going to rain the day we are moving most of the stuff. At least it isn't snow!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2024 1:24:31 GMT -6
I’m not trying to be overly critical of the NWS at all - but i think it’s reasonable to ask that with the swing and a miss on the last storm if the NWS was a little hesitant to go bigger with this storm out of concern of being burned again. The problem is - at least where I live in Wildwood - this is easily the biggest storm of the year and folks are legitimately un-prepared. Some roads are impassable while kids are trying to get home from school and all of this for about 4-6 inches. You have to error on the side of what the storm could produce and yes you will get burned for the snow that never comes - but even when that happens no one is stuck in their car. Just my thoughts. A couple of points to address sparkman... 1) Yes, I would not be surpised nor blame any meteorologist who has to do this job for a living for being a little gunshy after the Monday non-event. It would be human nature. I preach to my broadcast students (and remind myself regularly) to never be affraid to forecast. By that I mean exactly what you are saying... you cannot let a past missed forecast keep you from getting back into the game to try again. You must learn from that experience, but never shy away from forecasting. If you do, you'll end up playing catch up with every weather event. 2) I will respectfully disagree to some extent on the notion that we have to always forecast the worst case scenario... or what a storm COULD produce. That is frought with hazards, the most important being that if go "big" with every storm, people stop paying attention. We already get accused of crying wolf anytime the word snow is mentioned in a forecast. And let's face it... every storm has a 10% chance of a big suprise... which means 90% of them do not. Should we always highlight and forecast to that top 10%. I argue we should not. What you can do is lay your best forecast out on the table, but also explain the realistic chances for what could go wrong. Are there any indications that have you as the forecaster a bit concerned about a suprise? Not unlike what I posted in here yesterday... about my concerns for today to overachieve a bit. I honestly think one of the biggest problems we ran into today was that when the time came to make a decision early this morning there wasn't much going on yet. Radar didn't look impressive at all around 4am and what was falling was hardly impressive and it wasn't sticking. So I can understand hesitation at that point with calling school. That being said, our forecast did specifically mention that the afternoon bus stop time could be moderately impacted by snow. Considering schools these days seem to cancel for even the most minor impact events, I would have thought that warning about the afternoon bus stop would have been enough to get administrators to act. What is even more perplexing to me is not using the readily available virtual learning day option. I know those aren't ideal, but it sure is a safer option than taking a chance by sending kids to school on a day where snow was in the forecast. I do wonder if the lack of a Winter Weather Advisory for STL had anything to do with it? Imagine the uproar in the opposite direction... you cancel classes, there is no advisory issued and the roads end up being fine. Parents would come after administrators for cancelling school for no reason. Anyway... good discussion points Sparkman...I really do appreciate the constructive conversation and the respectful way those questions were posed! Refreshing in this day and age!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 22:46:35 GMT -6
This morning's 850 fgen showed it well Truth is we sometimes do better here with sheared out, weaker systems where the 850mb low isn't as wrapped up so the WAA is weaker. Today we had just the right mix of modest 850mb moist flow...juxtaposed with just cold enough and dry enough air being forced south by the northern stream. The NAM picking up the southern band after the event begins was not helpful... Yes, it finally caught on, but that model needs to have a better reliability window than 12 hours. It has proven two storms in a row that 12 hours might be its cut-off.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 19:57:06 GMT -6
I was actually really impressed with our in house IBM model with this storm. I was printing out 5-7 inches for the north metro... with a further south displacement along the MO River and I-70 for much of the week once it came into range. I was actually using the model radar from it all week.. but was not able to buy into the 6-7 inch totals with such a flat looking storm. Up until this morning and maybe last night... the NAM and NAM3k were very stingy on precip.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 18:36:36 GMT -6
My ramblings between live shots today...
One of the reasons I went 1-3 south was to account for possible impacts of sleet, yet also factor in potential for enhanced precipitation in a VERY narrow zone near the surface boundary. I was also trying to balance potential mitigating effects of the warm ground. How much of that QPF actually goes into observable accumulation? That is always a tough call in these situations. Trying to sharp shoot the exact location of that boundary was impossible... so I chose to get us in the neighborhood with a top # of 3" in the south. That actually worked great...except in St. Clair county...and the snow total there was significantly enhanced by the small cluster of thundersnow that went through heart of the county.
I toyed with going 2-5 up in the northern band... but the late onset of meaningful precipitation...coming after sunrise in a very marginal surface temperature set-up with warm ground... I just didn't want to push up quite that high. I thought 2-4 would get the job done and give folks the right impression and if a few 5 inch totals popped up... it wouldn't have that much of a practical impact different from 2-4. I still think that is true.
Keep in mind that we (I) was really hitting the midday/early afternoon as the time when roads would get nasty for a while and the heaviest snow would fall. So if anyone was listening to us, that's what they should have heard...watch the roads late morning to mid-afternoon...with fast improvement as the snow ended. And that is what has played out. The roads quickly improved as the snow ended and the sun came out.
Definitely not a perfect forecast... but far from a swing and a miss.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 18:15:36 GMT -6
I actually think this one may over achieve a little. If temperatures actually drop to near freezing before sunrise... they will likely not rebound much. This will allow ground temperatures to cool off as well... just as the precip starts to fall. Throw in some sleet at the onset, and I think this one may be a touch more efficient on the accumulation side. Time of year does matter now... but so do dynamics... and the models are showing multiple mesoscale bands that may train over the same areas for a time. In fact, radar may look a bit like a zebra for a few hours tomorrow with rows of narrow snow bands pushing east and easing south. Yup... it was more effecient
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 16:45:48 GMT -6
6 inches storm total south st peters. In theory this was a warning criteria event since the new criteria is 5 inches Maybe forSt Charles County... but thats it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 15:20:26 GMT -6
Measured 4" at 255 and 70 in Illinois.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 14:48:20 GMT -6
M3.5" in Godfrey. Snowglobe out here currently! Perfect! Should be close to 4 after the last band. But it is hauling so wont be around for long.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 13:26:56 GMT -6
just hit 2 downtown compacting will begin soon.
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