Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 19, 2017 13:31:52 GMT -6
From the NHC:
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for portions of this area later today.
Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 19, 2017 8:38:46 GMT -6
SPC acknowledging the possibility of tropical influence in there 4-8 day Convective Outlook:
Large spread/variability exists in medium-range models for the potential development and subsequent evolution in the forecast of a tropical convective system in the Gulf of Mexico. This scenario will undoubtedly influence the synoptic pattern east of the Rockies and potential corridors for severe thunderstorms.
It's probably a little late to say this, but if you're going to the game today stop by Kiener Plaza and talk to the guy from the St. Louis Astronomical Society. He's super friendly and will give you a lot of information about the eclipse.
By the way, I just looked on hotels.com and there's now only 1 hotel available in all of southern IL south of I-64. It's going for $500/night! They guy said they are expecting traffic to be horrible so he is encouraging everyone to get to their viewing location early in the morning.
Will be interesting see the impact. From a planning standpoint the crowds should not be that huge of a problem, outside of areas that are promoting the event and trying to draw a crowd, with the main concerns being along major thoroughfares and potential traffic slowdowns due to sightseeing with traffic in motion. This assessment is based on the fact that the event is not occurring in a single spot, its obviously along an arc, albeit a narrow one. There are two distinct groups with different thinking on the impacts to travel, I am in the camp that outside of a few dense traffic areas being impacted, it will not be a significant issue. I have to wonder about the hype machine being in full swing in attempt to maximize profitability from the event.
I am trying not to get too hyped up about Saturday yet as many mesoscale freatures could result in a totally different outcome. Even the Euro's somewhat different timing could/would cause a substantially different outcome for a good portion of our viewing area.
That said, there is no denying the potential...
The new SLU/CIPS analog based severe weather guidance tool (experimental...see story from two nights ago) does have the region south of I-70 pegged with high probabilities for severe.
Here are the particulars...
Probability of Severe: 77% Climatological Frequency of Severe: 11.23% Significant Atmospheric Fields 1. 700-mb Temperature 2. 850-mb Specific Humidity 3. 500-mb Temperature 4. Mean Sea-Level Pressure 5. Surface-Based CAPE Top 5 Most Similar Analogs 1. 19940511/0000 2. 20060506/0000 3. 19890522/0000 4. 19980522/0000 5. 20020513/0000 Measures of Probability of Severe Confidence Percentage of Top 100 with Severe: 21.7% Brier Skill Score: 0.54 Area Under the ROC: 0.74
SPC has bought into the chances for Friday and Saturday
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6