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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 16:31:31 GMT -6
Tornado warning north of the metro, pretty stout rotation
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 15:10:59 GMT -6
New Severe Thunderstorm watch up for Lincoln, Calhoun, Green, Jersey, Macoupin and Montgomery counties.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 14:52:18 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 14:19:23 GMT -6
From the SPC disco:
Observational data suggest that the small but long-lived convective system now propagating southeastward into northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois may finally be in the process of weakening, in the presence of increasing inhibition and weakening supporting forcing for ascent. Strongest convection now appears to be an evolving cell on the southwestern-most flank of the system. It is not certain that this will be maintained, but the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests renewed development and upscale growth might not be out of the question south southeastward in the vicinity of the Mississippi River later this afternoon and evening.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 13:54:57 GMT -6
SPC Outlook is out. Trimmed back Marginal in Missouri, did not expand Slight Risk much further south, more of a shift into Illinois.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 10:29:52 GMT -6
The CAMs are doing a terrible job resolving today's convective trends and convective potential...so old school methods will be king until they start to show something more closely resembling reality...which so far they are not. There is now a well defined MCV/shortwave visible in satellite (visible and water vapor) cresting the top of the flat ridge and about to begin the downward slide on the eastern side of the ridge. The small, but potent complex tied to the MCV is surviving quite well within what will arguably be the most hostile environment of the day right now...with a warm ridge of mid-level temps immediately ahead of it...where 700mb temps on the latest SPC meso page show a rather toasty +14c! Yet the storm continues unabated. The air mass fueling the storm is extremely unstable with various CAPES running from 4500 to 6000+ over northwest MO depending on which flavor (ML, MU, SB). At this point...storms are definitely elevated...feeding off ML CAPEs from between 700 and 1000m up. Downstream over eastern MO...the air is not CURRENTLY as unstable due to overnight convection and lingering high clouds. But those clouds are clearing and temperatures will spike as the sun pops out in full force...leading to a corresponding rise in CAPE values ahead of the growing complex. In addition, mid-level temps cool some closer to the Mississippi River...so it would make sense that any drop subtle drop in instability will be compensated by cooler mid-level temperatures. Bottomline... the thermodynamics ahead of the complex remains supportive of severe storms with damaging wind and hail as the key threat. The mean wind/steering flow/upwind propagation vectors all indicate a gradual turn more to the southeast with time is likely and the latest satellite and radar trends would seem to verify that as the past few frames of both are showing a developing southeastward surge. This will take the complex...and its severe potential southeast along the theta-e gradient right into the STL area late this afternoon. I suspect future SPC outlooks will expand the severe over eastern Missouri and one could argue the need for an upgrade as the potential for widespread wind damage within the line will be increasing in my opinion...if the system can maintain its current strength for another couple of hours. EDIT... One thing that may keep the storm moving more east than southeast is the track of the MCV/shortwave. Latest HRRR/MesoNAM show the vortex on a more east/southeast track...more towards Chicago...which could keep things a bit more to the north...with only the tail of the shortwave swiping the STL area later this evening. And the SPC pulls back the Slight Risk in NE MO www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 26, 2018 17:46:01 GMT -6
I don't know about y'all but I'm calling that a tornado! Between the pic and damage pics, I'd venture to say you are correct
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 26, 2018 17:12:04 GMT -6
Great pic. Thanks for sharing
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 26, 2018 15:10:58 GMT -6
Tornado warning Franklin county and Gasconade
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 26, 2018 12:56:31 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 25, 2018 14:26:24 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 25, 2018 10:14:36 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 22, 2018 12:16:07 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 18, 2018 7:24:04 GMT -6
...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...
A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET IN 1922.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 15, 2018 16:35:04 GMT -6
Just shy of 2.5" rain between yesterday evening and today
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 14, 2018 14:21:47 GMT -6
Its a great day not to be a forecaster for sure
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 14, 2018 14:00:19 GMT -6
Looks like a little rotation developing in Audrain county
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 14, 2018 12:30:00 GMT -6
And some popcorn is developing in the western CWA along in the unstable air.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 14, 2018 10:05:49 GMT -6
The IA storms have certainly started to make a due south shift, however it would appear they will begin to die out.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 11, 2018 15:55:35 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 11, 2018 15:12:24 GMT -6
Tornado warning in IL northwest of Brighton
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 13:07:15 GMT -6
1.4" 3 mi east KFAM this morning
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 11:47:40 GMT -6
Pleasant 69* still. Good morning of soaking rain
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 9:19:16 GMT -6
Pretty significant training in the area. Seeing reports 1-2" possibly + in SW portions St Francois County down into iron and Reynolds counties
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 7:21:45 GMT -6
Little surprised the cell in st Francois county isn't warned for hail. Edit: I now see they have it covered with a special weather advisory
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 1, 2018 23:31:14 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 31, 2018 15:47:13 GMT -6
And now a tornado warning as well
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 31, 2018 15:46:25 GMT -6
Some wicked hail signatures in the cell down around van buren
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 31, 2018 12:57:05 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 31, 2018 11:14:59 GMT -6
Received .57" of rain this morning, measured wind gust of 51mph at KFAM as well. Some small limb damage and sporatic power outages due to downed limbs.
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