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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Apr 18, 2024 12:02:05 GMT -6
dont like the boundary being right on top of us apparently neither does the NWS. Watch is up
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Mar 14, 2024 14:37:18 GMT -6
Storm approaching Warrenton looks tornadic with 70dbz+ returns almost looks like a hook with a debris ball
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Mar 13, 2024 14:52:11 GMT -6
Watch issued.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 19, 2024 9:29:05 GMT -6
Can I get a link to that? I was thinking of setting one up as well a while ago.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 13:58:53 GMT -6
That final Fgen band is looking beefy... Coworker in columbia said they got a solid inch from the last band when it moved through
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 12:10:21 GMT -6
any chance last RAP run is correct?
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 11:44:40 GMT -6
all the sudden things switched from rain/sleet to snow in eureka. Just walked outside on back patio to take dogs out and things are flash freezing for sure if not treated. Snow is starting to stick actually to the roads too
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 11:17:51 GMT -6
latest rap showing 7inches st gen/farmington LOL
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 10:35:12 GMT -6
By Six Flags sleet piling up on our roof, nothing sticking to the ground still
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 16, 2024 10:32:35 GMT -6
if the RAP 15z is to be believed, could be a nice little surprise for some
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 15, 2024 13:33:59 GMT -6
big update and models rolling in and no one saying anything? I guess no one believes this is real
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 1, 2024 12:18:46 GMT -6
I’m not complaining other than the muddy paws still. It’s so nice out!!
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 22, 2024 8:19:44 GMT -6
Trees were glazed here earlier this morning but have since have less on them. The last shower that came through here must have had warmer drops because it didn’t freeze to the other glazed ice on the deck and puddled instead. Also just noticed the ice getting that white look to it in the lawn which is showing a sign of the binding releasing now. Temp & DP at 30° here I noticed the sidewalk is starting to show that too already, seems early or are the droplets just that warm?
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 22, 2024 2:35:49 GMT -6
Woke up at 2:00 to check roads and send wife into work before ice moves in. Turns out it was too late. Solid freezing drizzle thing. Started freezing rain with sleet mixed in. Very slick already in eureka
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:49:07 GMT -6
yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Ice isn't manageable. Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice! not saying it wont be, im just saying wont be a typical .5 ice storm. roads wont care about that much, usually .5 is when you have to talk about power outages. between recent storms and ambient temps we will likely dodge a bullet.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:31:55 GMT -6
yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice! Yes, however roads impassable vs mass power outage. We can handle a day of roads being an issue followed by rain, extended power outages can be far more impactful.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:21:28 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually some of the drops will absorb into the ground. yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 16:27:28 GMT -6
well NWS has made a stealthy but significant increase for my point forecast, showing upto 0.1 and up to an additional .3 tomorrow during the day.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:58:37 GMT -6
Yeah, a lot is falling in a 3 hour period when temps are borderline. Better off ignoring that part in my opinion. It just makes the numbers look more impressive than what the reality will be. One thing we have learned is to not ignore, just don’t count on. Crazier things have happened.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:21:38 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less. Both the 18z NAM and Hi-res NAM FRAM maps print out warning levels of ice up 44 into the metro. Certainly catches your attention Mainly that .72 on the 18z. Looks like it’s assuming the ice goes until about 7-and the bulk falls with those higher numbers. I’m most interested to how the sleet plays into it. They will really affect how roads are. My gut says the Nam is over estimating the tail end with the warmer 30-31 accretion.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:10:09 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:04:08 GMT -6
Just noticed the WWA was updated to include a burst of sleet with accumulation possible that would be a game changer for road conditions in the morning.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 10:39:32 GMT -6
The HRRR and RAP are just terrible models at anything beyond 12-18 hours. 100% certainly interesting to see similar events play out from a conceptual level though.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 10:25:31 GMT -6
I say that, then the RAP is a similar variant
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 10:23:50 GMT -6
12Z HRRR shows a significant ice storm for the northeastern half of the metro including downtown and the metro-east and points north and east going well into the evening Monday before switching over to a cold rain around 9-11PM Monday night. Likely a third of an inch of ice glaze from that run. i think the HRRR is on a feedback loop or something
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 12, 2024 19:51:48 GMT -6
Lets see if that band down 70 can form and give us our first ever snow squall warning, lets go baby!!!! We had one a few years ago when they first came out. I doubt this will hit that level though.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 12, 2024 12:28:47 GMT -6
just think of it this way all, parts of Louisiana will get more snow than most of us
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 11, 2024 12:02:04 GMT -6
12z ukmet. book it.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 2, 2024 21:24:02 GMT -6
2 more weeks
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jul 30, 2023 10:37:50 GMT -6
We’ll still now power out in eureka. What a typical 2023 storm. Over producing
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