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Post by ndolan387 on Apr 21, 2024 14:37:58 GMT -6
Rip MoSue. May she continue to be in spirit with her family and friends.
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Post by ndolan387 on Apr 16, 2024 20:49:28 GMT -6
NE MO and many areas in Iowa got clobbered today!
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Post by ndolan387 on Apr 4, 2024 15:26:15 GMT -6
Sorry to hear. Best prayers, thoughts and wishes to you Sue!
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 28, 2024 19:51:04 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question. Yeah the ensembles show our area near a trough and ridge aka clouds and a unsettled patten for the solar eclipse. Chris also showed a graphic explaining how it's likely based off climatology that we see clouds on April 8th. Lots of changes in the next 1.5 weeks, but the trends are there!
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 17, 2024 20:33:15 GMT -6
Well there's a lot of mixing at the surface thru sunrise tomorrow and after throughout the day so that should help make the frost less severe. Though a hard freeze is a hard freeze! 25-26 looks doable in many areas. Maybe 23-24 in some areas!
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 15, 2024 14:05:24 GMT -6
Dodged a bullet in STL county and other areas nearby with no hail. Those hail reports were insane! Got 0.15" yesterday morning and 0.62" yesterday evening in Northern Wildwood. Total of 0.77." Some areas fortunately received more rain. We need it so badly! Concerning to be this dry in March.
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 11, 2024 9:37:00 GMT -6
Getting used to having models running 1 hr "later!"
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 7, 2024 9:35:24 GMT -6
Many on here were writing off winter. What winter lol jk?We've all seen this redeo before this time of year. It's just this winter the warmth was unprecedented in some instances. I kept the faith and belief that we weren't done with snow and cold. Hopefully we cash in now.
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 6, 2024 20:48:11 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO. I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March.
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 4, 2024 22:57:55 GMT -6
System on the 15th/16th and the 19th ish is starting to have my attention even though it will probably end up as not much at all. At least I like to see the flakes fly.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 28, 2024 10:48:45 GMT -6
Officially looks like a 60* temp drop at KSTL! 86* to 26* in about 15 hrs with some light snow in places. Down to 24* in Northern Wildwood. Over a 60* temp drop in some places!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 17, 2024 23:58:44 GMT -6
We aren't done though! It's really hard to compare our recent winters in the snowfall department to the past climatology of 30 years. It's just a different pattern beast!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 17, 2024 23:54:00 GMT -6
Glad you all experienced an overachiever yesterday! It's been too long since we've had thunder snow. My Mom measured 5in in Northern Wildwood yesterday!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 15, 2024 21:04:23 GMT -6
Enjoy the snow even if doesn't all stick well. I'm in Arizona on a trip. The NWS point forecast removed sleet from the forecast. I just looked at a sounding for early tomorrow and the better lift is indeed below the DGZ like Chris already mentioned. So I think there could be some sleet at the onset before it changes to all snow!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2024 22:39:31 GMT -6
My gut says this winter has one good one in it...my intuition says otherwise, lol A big ol March blizzard would soothe a little. I've been saying Palm Sunday 2.0 (March 24th). Would be the 10 year anniversary this year!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2024 11:02:53 GMT -6
WNW of Rolla is getting hit hard with that mesoscale band. Another depressing system, luckily I didn't invest time in it!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2024 22:39:30 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!! Thanks Reb! And on top of that... today marks my 30th year year at KTVI! My how the world has changed over those 30 years! 30 years! You're a true veteran! Congrats!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2024 15:35:00 GMT -6
Should make another run at 70° later this week Some of the soundings look marginally supportive of severe weather as well Just bring on spring at this point I think some areas will be close to 75* Fri. Dare I say the upper 70s.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 30, 2024 22:52:12 GMT -6
EPS is about 5 days faster with bringing the cold far enough south than the GEFS. That answers my question why long range weather posts on social media are saying around the 10th and then others around the 15th. I can see either one coming true. But, if I had to pick a horse, it would be the latter. This overall warm pattern has been a stubborn one to go away! Late is always a better option around here it seems. Yeah so true! Patience.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 30, 2024 21:35:26 GMT -6
Glad many of you on here got to experience '82! Wish I would've.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2024 21:12:43 GMT -6
Yeah I'd be very surprised if we get snow with the Feb 4th-6th ish system. Looking like a rainer! 😂
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 25, 2024 14:42:22 GMT -6
Best wishes to your Mom and family Labrat!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 25, 2024 14:39:08 GMT -6
Going to be near 84 - 90 hrs of essentially continuous fog come time tomorrow. This wasn't forecasted well. But there were some signs that pointed to it. At the end of day we are dealing with the atmosphere here like our lives. Expect the unexpected. That's one of reasons why I love weather so much. The atmosphere will serve up a piece of humble apple pie. I welcome it.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2024 21:25:00 GMT -6
00z gfs brings a piece of the PV down over the northeast by February 4th. Things get weird from there with a southern storm running into a virtual shield. Unstoppable force, meet immovable wall. Yeah I mentioned earlier how I think we could get an overrunning event in the Feb 4th - 8th time range if we are lucky.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2024 21:15:25 GMT -6
I used to follow JB when I was younger, no longer do. As for our weather looks like dense fog and also mist here and there is going to stick around until our third round of rain bubbles up from the SW to the NE after 9am (10-11am in the STL metro tomorrow. There may be some fog that lingers tomorrow afternoon but it should dissipate. It's taking awhile for the ground to warm. There was still hard frost about 2" down yesterday. Definitely a slow thaw. Pretty cool map and it looks like it's updated frequently! www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_SoilTemperatureDepthMaps
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2024 16:22:03 GMT -6
I used to follow JB when I was younger, no longer do. As for our weather looks like dense fog and also mist here and there is going to stick around until our third round of rain bubbles up from the SW to the NE after 9am (10-11am in the STL metro tomorrow. There may be some fog that lingers tomorrow afternoon but it should dissipate. It's taking awhile for the ground to warm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2024 10:15:51 GMT -6
12z GFS is trying to output deformation rain changing to digital wet sloppy snow Sat evening into 12am Sun. 1) This is something we would get excited about in November. 2) It would probably be 5 flakes. 3) It's one model run so it doesn't mean anything. 4) 850mb temperatures aren't cold enough or borderline. 5) Anytime we have a borderline setup we know we usually get hose with rain.
All kidding aside, I think the Feb 4th-8th ish timeframe looks like our next chance at a bigger storm. Where the southern and northern branch have a chance to work together. Maybe overrunning type event if we get luckily.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2024 22:30:14 GMT -6
Well it's been a fun 10 day stretch of winter weather even if they are smaller systems. Time for a little break. I'm crossing my fingers for a Palm Sunday 2.0 Snow Storm. I already mentioned this, but Palm Sunday is on March 24th like it was in 2013. It would be fitting. We all have our wishes. We are just now only two weeks away from a 1 incher! 😂
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2024 16:34:51 GMT -6
Still a touch below freezing in Brighton and there seems to be more ice in the trees than earlier. The temp rise seems to have stalled a bit here. You are starting to probably see heavier precip. There's more heavier banding coming your way. You may end up being one of the winners for this ice system lol. I would think that you will rise above 32* in the next hour or two.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2024 12:34:36 GMT -6
I was at 32* for awhile, 33* degrees now in Northern Wildwood. Trees have also had/have a good coating on them!
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