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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 18:13:34 GMT -6
Reports of 8-9" across western and southern Nashville metro. Moderate snow now in Northern Wildwood. Bigger flakes!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 17:38:12 GMT -6
Starting to snow here in Northern Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 17:29:00 GMT -6
Bloggers in Washington, Mo start looking out the window.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 16:56:27 GMT -6
Radar still looking very beefy.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 15:45:32 GMT -6
KEAX radar looking pretty beefy S of 70. Yeah as Chris and Snowstorm have mentioned. This system has something up its sleeve and the radar is continuing to show that now. Hopefully your not too far north.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 15:29:30 GMT -6
Yeah the models have been struggling with this shortwave of energy. HRRR is completely out to lunch on this event. Truly a nowcast situation I couldn't agree more. Look at observations and radar.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 15:16:13 GMT -6
Every single model has the most snow right along and north of i70. Even the hurricane ad rap. As noted radar is a bit south. So...lol Yeah the models have been struggling with this shortwave of energy.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 15:15:11 GMT -6
Some 30dbz banding in western MO Models sure didn’t show that Yeah I'm watching that one band S of I-70. It's ripping in Windsor, MO.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 15:09:38 GMT -6
Rolla reporting light snow. Snowman the snow is getting closer to Union.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2024 20:16:19 GMT -6
Yeah the clouds coming in this evening are rising temps slightly!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2024 10:23:34 GMT -6
My dad bottomed out at -11 this morning. He lives 5 minutes from me. At -7 right now here. We had about a half inch of snow last night. What are your thoughts on the Monday afternoon, eve system? Stay warm everyone! Looking similar to yesterday, maybe an inch in spots Yeah a heavy dusting is a good bet again. Looks like it's going to start later now. Some of the mesoscale models aren't too jazzed and are dry. I still think we will squeak out 0.2" to 0.5". Sometime after 6/7pm tomorrow NW to SE.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2024 9:55:07 GMT -6
These stratus clouds are going to keep the temps down even more! Some areas North and West may not get above zero today.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2024 9:52:05 GMT -6
I see a -7 F in the 5 min reports from KSTL. 2 degrees off the record from 1881 then! Lambert was at a different location then too!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2024 8:23:05 GMT -6
-9* ambient temp for the low in Northern Wildwood! -6* at KSTL is impressive! -8* at KSUS! Coldest wind chills -28* at both airports. This airmass was colder than expected!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2024 23:19:04 GMT -6
Southern folks on the board still could squeak out an inch or so Sun.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2024 21:54:05 GMT -6
Happy we still have power. These snow streamers sure are fun to watch! Credit goes to Snowstorm920. Been ripping here on and off in Northern Wildwood. Just enough upward vertical motion (-omega), the unidirectional wind in the column (coz), temps at the surface similar to the same temps in the dendrite growth zone/strong low level cyclonic curvature/squeezing out all the moisture in the column (Chris). The best lift is actually below the dendrite growth zone! Oh and I love dry snow in the teens bc it's all sticking (even it's it's not much). Looks like we could have a dusting (today) on top of a dusting tomorrow. Hey it's snow on snow lol!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2024 20:41:05 GMT -6
Well, things look to relax for the last half of January. The GFS would look to support a return to the December pattern. However, it is out on its own as the GEFS and EPS lend absolutely no support to it. Also, I’m having a tough time buying the long range of the GEFS or EPS as both are calling for a persistent ridge in AK, which would argue downstream troughing. However, they are showing that the ridge is going to get undercut and therefore, we go zonal. I completely see a relaxation of next week, but full on return to December I think is out of the question. EDIT: Well, after looking at forecasted teleconnections, things look to get absolutely screwed for the last half of January. MJO going to warm phases, AO trending back positive, PNA trending back positive. This all sucks. Yeah looks like things could get "interesting" again after the first week of Feb or Feb 10th. My hope is we get a sneaky zonal system lol until then. Or a sneaky clipper!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2024 12:33:31 GMT -6
Nice little spring/summer mesoscale bands. Sleet / snow for a minute or so. Wind and more winds. Honestly one of the weirdest systems I've ever seen for Jan.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2024 23:19:15 GMT -6
Nowcasting time. Chris just made a good point on air just now. This is a very dynamic system and it may surprise us.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2024 23:13:21 GMT -6
Let's hope the freezing rain is brief. Road temps have risen today. HRRR is showing no snow now lol.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2024 21:52:50 GMT -6
00z HRRR is showing thunderstorms Fri. I would've never thought we would be seeing possible thunderstorms then backside sleet/snow with dropping temps in the lower teens. A flash freeze is a big threat. Any residual water will freeze on any surface in less than an hr! Then less than 3 days later maybe 20/25 to 1 snow ratios. Then possible sub zero air temps and wind chills way below zero. Whatever happened to a snow storm when it's in the mid 20s to near 30* the whole time?
Expect the unexpected!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 22:17:29 GMT -6
Yeah the system 01-14-24 to 01-15-24 has the potential to be very impactful for the STL metro as a whole. No precip issues. Dry snow that will all stick and blow around on the roads (potentially plowable snow) as the sub zero air temps arrive early Mon morning with windchills way below zero!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 21:59:54 GMT -6
This is getting old again. But so does every year. Instead of two more weeks... it might be two more years... maybe two more decades? It's not that I mind a whole lot that we get missed so often. It's that these close calls take up so much energy to forecast with nothing much to show for it. Hopefully you get more sleep tonight.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 15:24:38 GMT -6
Beautiful wet salt shaker snow earlier has increased intensity to moderate snow in the last 30 min in Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 13:27:22 GMT -6
Just glad the atmosphere overachieved and brought 2-3"+ for folks in the immediate metro this past Friday evening! Light snow/flurries on and off here in Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2024 0:04:35 GMT -6
Oh and the sleet tonight for areas near and around the I-44 corridor brought back classic winter STL metro memories!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 8, 2024 23:58:48 GMT -6
The GEFS is pretty close to benchmark positions for Friday. More impressive jet coupling at 250mb. After you brought it to our attention for this current system, now I wonder if the frontal triple points will give the ensembles fits with low positions for the Fri/Sat system.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2024 21:33:10 GMT -6
Hopefully the Fri/Sat system trends become more encouraging.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 23:08:18 GMT -6
That jet coupling at hour 144 on the GFS is mesmerizing. I was just looking at that! Absolutely no words. Groundhog Day 2011 revenge 2.0. GEM looks more realistic.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 23:06:43 GMT -6
00z gfs has STL go below 0 on the 14th-16th. Very impressive and dangerous cold Looks very realistic to me if we get that deep snowpack!
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