Post by davem on Sept 11, 2018 14:45:18 GMT -6
That said, since he missed this one, perhaps it's a prelude of things to come. Follow this thought:
He said not to worry about the tropics. Wrong.
He said that this winter won't be that great for the snowbunnies. Maybe Wrong, too?
I'm just being sassy.
I was leaning to a snowy forecast compared to recent years. Relative to solar cycle, we tend to have our greatest winters immediately after minima, and immediately after El Nino. We are not yet at minima, but this solar cycle was weak. There was also an uptick in volcanic activity and we rarely have 3 consecutive winters of well below 30 year average snow. I'm still graphing out trends in teleconnections, so I'm not quite ready to commit yet. I think October will be telling. The one thing I am concerned about - technically last winter was quite active with extensive snowcover across the conus. It really just missed St. Louis, but we were in a drought. I think the thing that helps us this year is that we are knocking down the plains drought. El Nino will take care of the Texas drought. If I had to bet right now, my money would be on the Farmers Almanac vs Old Farmers Almanac. Sure, we may see something in between, but if I had to choose between the two...
now that all said, I do believe we are within 2 years of seeing a blockbuster winter. Even if it doesn't happen this winter, I think we will see things more favorable for snow. What will make this winter hard to predict is that we won't see the cold that we saw last year. We will rely on bowling balls generating their own cold. I think El Nino may be displaced further west than your typical El Ninos and this will allow the Jetstream to dip into the lower Midwest, and if the dip is favorable, will allow for the flow to slow enough to allow healthy storms to develop. I would be even more confident if we were just a bit further south - I think southern areas of the stl forecast area and northern areas of the pah area may get several significant snowstorms, but again, let's see what October holds in store for us.
Climatologically speaking, it seems to me that we are on the cusp of a period of colder and snowier winters than we've become accustomed to. I was never excited about the last two winters - 2 years ago I predicted 6 inches of snow, and last year I predicted 9 inches of snow. We ended up well below my predictions both years, but a lot of people were excited about last winter. I've always been keeping this winter or next winter under my hat as something to watch in terms of a blockbuster winter. Solar cycles, also, seem to more readily impact the weather patterns in large land masses such as across the globe, and tend to lag another year behind for North America. That could temper my "outlook" for this winter, but I think right now, we should see at least normal snowfall.