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Post by stlfisherman on Dec 19, 2022 14:27:24 GMT -6
It's been a minute, I hope everyone is doing well. As you can imagine, the hive is buzzing here. Amazing that the weather community has been talking about this arctic cold front for almost a week now, and we are still three days away from it plowing through. Quite the testament to our advancement in computer weather models the past two decades. I can only think of maybe one or two cold fronts in my lifetime that have come through here with such vigor as we are all forecasting on Thursday. The sudden drop in temperature, increasingly strong wind, and burst of snow will make for quite the wintry snow-globe scene heading into the Christmas Holiday Weekend.
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Post by stlfisherman on Dec 13, 2019 14:42:24 GMT -6
This doesn't look like a big winter storm to me for St. Louis at this time. Rather, it looks like a quick hit of accumulating snow/sleet/freezing rain Sunday afternoon/evening followed by a period of freezing drizzle Sunday night and ending as some light snow/flurries on Monday. Total accumulation will depend on how long any location can remain snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain in the strong warm advection aloft. Still have time to watch this one, but like what Chris has out there.
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Post by stlfisherman on Jan 16, 2019 20:12:14 GMT -6
Can't remember how to post pics in here but the 18Z GEFS Mean has a strong signal for the deformation axis to align with I-44 through the metro and into Illinois. This also aligns with the latest CIPS Analog snowfall mean. Certainly has a lot of potential and will keep us busy!
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Post by stlfisherman on Jan 16, 2019 20:09:52 GMT -6
Fish thank you for all you do. No thanks needed. This is my job and I love what I do.
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Post by stlfisherman on Jan 16, 2019 20:06:43 GMT -6
This has been a wild ride these past three weeks my friends. I can't tell you the roller coaster of feelings that I have gone through. It has helped that the weather has remained active and I have a great staff at work that continue to come to work and do their job as professionals. Can't say enough about the forecasters at WFO LSX. They are great people.
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Post by stlfisherman on Jan 16, 2019 19:53:56 GMT -6
So is this govt shutdown thing going to end soon? This is absurd. God, I hope so. But not looking likely this month given current initial conditions.
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Post by stlfisherman on Nov 14, 2018 19:27:42 GMT -6
Here it comes!
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Post by stlfisherman on Nov 14, 2018 17:19:39 GMT -6
Busy day, but well worth it. Anyway you look at it this winter storm is historic. We have not had this much snow in November in a long, long time. Hope the trees hold up with the extra weight on them. Everyone relax and enjoy the snow!
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Post by stlfisherman on Nov 13, 2018 18:19:11 GMT -6
Just pouring over some of the 18Z data and the forecast still looks good, with the potential of a nudge to the NW if the majority of the guidance starts heading that way. I agree the NAM did a great job with the few mesoscale bands we dealt with the last week, but it was awful on the synoptic system and had the QPF way too far south. We follow these trends closely and to be honest we haven't seen a definitive trend toward one piece of guidance being superior to another this winter so far. Lets see what the 00Z runs have in store for us.
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Post by stlfisherman on Nov 13, 2018 16:13:21 GMT -6
Long time since I have visited this page. Good to see some of the regulars and new faces. Busy day at the office as you can imagine. Hoping that some of you can cash in on a real winter storm here Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The NAM, RGEM placement of QPF certainly is supported by the track of the vorticity maxima and 850mb low pressure on the ECWMF and GFS-FV3 using the Goree/Younkin/Browne technique. There is also support for a dry slot that would lower accumulations farther south and east of the main deformation zone as it pivots from a west to east band to a north to south band before fading Thursday afternoon. Time will tell where that sweet spot will be that the deformation zone will rotate upon and dump the most snow (maybe up to 8 inches). Will be fun to watch.
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