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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 24, 2024 19:01:54 GMT -6
Friday's severe threat is looking pretty conditional around here, with the warm front being stubborn to lift through probably favoring overcast and lack of strong destabilization. There could be some strong storms around during the morning hours with the lead wave and maybe another round during the evening but it doesn't look too impressive right now to me. Sunday looks like it has much better potential. Either way, several rounds of beneficial rainfall look likely. Hopefully we can keep chipping away at the drought into early summer and avoid a repeat of last year!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 23, 2024 18:00:14 GMT -6
0.22" in High Ridge. Big drops. Had the same tally in Brighton...not great, but I'll take it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 23, 2024 11:07:39 GMT -6
Amazing how much more rain central IL has had with almost every system the past several months. The cut off always seems to set up around Rt 108.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 20, 2024 9:38:49 GMT -6
Sad day for the forum...may Sue rest in peace
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 19, 2024 10:59:32 GMT -6
Blanket warnings were absolutely warranted yesterday...there were little spin ups every few miles along nearly the entire line and it's impossible to know when one might intensify between scans.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 18:23:25 GMT -6
Storm around Ironton/ F’town looks like it’s wrapping up. Big hail spike too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 17:48:29 GMT -6
Did High Ridge get hit by a tornado? The velocity signature looked very impressive as it passed through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 17:26:51 GMT -6
Thats the exact path my first tornado went back in 11. Finally produced around honey bend. Good luck. Luck wasn't on my side today. Headed out about 10mins too late and couldn't catch the tornado before it cycled so I dropped south to catch the next storm in line and got stuck in torrential rain between them. It didn't help that my phone was about dead and radarscope wouldn't refresh after about 530 for some reason.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 16:15:12 GMT -6
He is on a tornado in Greene County, IL. Wow En route
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 15:32:11 GMT -6
KLSX VWP is measuring 0-1km SRH at 214 m2/s2 and 0-1/2km SRH at 152 m2/s2. Those values are rather high and do support tornados so we will have to keep an eye on that as the line approaches the metro. Guarantee it's higher than that a bit further N along the warm front. Those supercells to the N/NW mean business.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 14:41:20 GMT -6
Surprised the SPC didn't go with a TOR watch given the potential for discrete supercells along a warm front, QLCS tornadoes and wind gusts of 70mph+
Winds are strongly backed here out of the SE with a 65* dewpoint...this is tornado weather
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:14:42 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
Looks like the storms may hold off until most of the evening rush hour is over That’s some good news as I wasn’t looking forward to driving home in hail/wind Going to have plenty of time for destabilization with full clearing developing across E/Central MO...today is turning into a tinder box situation quickly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 9:16:54 GMT -6
Looks like we should see upscale growth with those cells near Sedalia along the remnant outflow this afternoon. Pretty good destabilization underway with the broken overcast along/S of 70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2024 15:45:38 GMT -6
Futurecast teeing up the ol STL Split for tomorrow I see...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 19:23:17 GMT -6
Ended up with a whopping tenth of an inch of rain Let’s hope Thursday night brings a good soaker I happened to catch one of the "other" stations sim radar forecasts earlier and it looked pretty intense with multiple bows impacting the region on Thursday. NAM has 2000-2500j/kg CAPE with 40-50kts bulk shear so that outcome seems plausible. The compact low that develops and tracks just N of the Metro could help back surface winds and increase the tornado threat too. But the NAM is void of activity in the warm sector for some reason.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:45:41 GMT -6
I sure hope the front brings some rain...that was extremely disappointing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:05:38 GMT -6
These storms are really struggling as they head into IL with the weaker lapse rates...nothing but sprinkles here in Brighton
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 12:47:41 GMT -6
Guess there's enough lift and minimal CINH to get storms going after all. Looks like a noisy afternoon...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 8:25:44 GMT -6
Sooooo tempted to get some summer veggies in the ground... I put 40 hills of potatoes in after work yesterday. Onions going in today. Warm weather stuff probably next week after this cool snap.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 4:59:14 GMT -6
Today's severe threat is about as conditional as it gets for the Metro region. It doesn't look like the steeper lapse rate plume will make it this far S/E so instability is marginal and forcing for ascent is pretty weak with no surface boundary nearby. If storms can develop they will pose a severe threat, but it's questionable that they do until late tonight once the front approaches.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2024 7:52:19 GMT -6
We definitely need to watch Tuesday closely. There's good potential for clearing/surface heating during the morning and afternoon as the lead wave moves through and the warm front lifts north. If that can overlap with the steep lapse rate plume/EML, sufficient instability will develop for supercells.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 11, 2024 11:20:44 GMT -6
Crazy sharp gradient on the NW fringe with this system...Jersey Co got almost nothing on the west end while the E side got over an inch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2024 16:51:17 GMT -6
Spectacular! The corona with the bonus solar flare was something I'll never forget.
There were several hundred visitors gathered at the Moonshine store. Glad I went East and avoided the traffic on the N/S bound highways.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 7, 2024 14:54:29 GMT -6
My target tomorrow is Moonshine, IL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 9:08:44 GMT -6
The GFS has been bullish with a weak vort max trickling through mid-day while other guidance seems void of that feature. I'm siding on the side of optimism too given that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -6
I honestly think a thin veil of cirrostratus is favorable for viewing...thin being the key word. The wrench in the gears is a weak front that could set off some CU locally.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2024 11:08:50 GMT -6
Praying for you and your family during this difficult time, Sue!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2024 5:55:40 GMT -6
Graupel mixing in near Godfrey...might see some decent bursts of snow today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 2, 2024 16:33:44 GMT -6
Pretty wild...the 12z EC looks almost identical to the current flow at 500mb over the US on D10.
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