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Post by jmg378s on Apr 23, 2024 16:46:36 GMT -6
This stretch from Thursday to Sunday looks particularly volatile in terms of severe weather for the middle of the country.
We may get in on the action Friday depending on how unstable the warm sector is this far east. Models are showing convective initiation even in central MO at the nose of the mid level jet with big hodographs to work with. Perhaps a scenario where a supercell can pop up anywhere in the whole warm sector all the way back to the dryline. Again our risk highly dependent on instability (which more often than not is mitigated by lingering storms/clouds for us), but there is some potential there for a more significant event.
And if we make it through Friday unscathed there's Sunday to worry about which also looks pretty gnarly.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 22, 2024 19:31:46 GMT -6
Haven't kept up with the forum lately as much as I used to. So just going through some old posts of Sue. She was a very positive person right to the end. Will be missed.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 19, 2024 13:22:38 GMT -6
Blanket warnings were absolutely warranted yesterday...there were little spin ups every few miles along nearly the entire line and it's impossible to know when one might intensify between scans. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/QLCS_Warnings.pdfThat explains it. I get it now. I thought a few years ago, they were going to ignore small spin ups. It's not listed on that referenced guidance, but the other confidence builder that the warning meteorologists were certainly aware of was that the vertical wind profiler was measuring high storm relative helicity values in the lowest part of the atmosphere (higher even than SPC mesoanalysis was indicating) prior to QLCS arrival. And I will second what BRTN said, sometimes these QLCSs can produce tornadoes very quickly and you may see a debris signature on a new scan in a part of the line that you weren't all that concerned with on the previous scan.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 18, 2024 16:41:58 GMT -6
Huh? There are active severe T-storm and tornado warnings for metro St. Louis!
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 18, 2024 15:19:46 GMT -6
KLSX VWP is measuring 0-1km SRH at 214 m2/s2 and 0-1/2km SRH at 152 m2/s2. Those values are rather high and do support tornados so we will have to keep an eye on that as the line approaches the metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 17, 2024 11:30:43 GMT -6
By the way, Chris posed the question a few days ago about whether the SPC probabilities were helpful or confusing to the general public. And I agree that those probability numbers are likely confusing for the general public and I would add to that that the VAST majority of people have no idea at all what those values actually represent. To make matters worse a mere 13% in those tornado probabilities can be the difference between barely any risk and particularly dangerous situation. I do think the risk categories are helpful though...well...expect maybe the category names could use some tweaking (particularly Enhanced vs. Moderate).
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 12, 2024 22:23:03 GMT -6
That is a very energetic system passing through on Tuesday with tons of shear and huge hodographs. But there are some big questions about the instability in the warm sector for Tuesday afternoon. Overnight storms and lingering showers/clouds could spoil the atmosphere and with no real influx of legit EML that may put a tamper on the ability of the atmosphere to charge up. As it is right now strong to severe storms look possible if not likely Tuesday or Tuesday night (depending on timing), but hopefully we can avoid a high-end event. Have to keep an eye on this one in the coming days.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 8, 2024 19:18:36 GMT -6
Yeah that was incredible! Just some very light cirrus which made absolutely no difference. Perfect viewing. We viewed from a relative's house northeast of Poplar Bluff very close to the center of totality, 4:10 at our location. And yes we could see the flare at the bottom of the eclipse easily.
The drive home was not so spectacular. Typically a 1.75 hour drive was 4.5 hours.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 6, 2024 13:01:47 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 1, 2024 18:04:54 GMT -6
Just pea size hail in SE St. Pete, but VERY heavy rain.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 1, 2024 18:04:19 GMT -6
Looking a past radar scans rotation tightened up quickly near 141 just north of 40 and appeared to produce a corresponding CC drop.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 20:00:27 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado). Plot twist tornado dies because of the eclipse destroying heating and cape Stupid eclipse
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:33:49 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado).
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:28:22 GMT -6
At 12 days we are a bit beyond the skill of even ensembles to say much about Eclipse Day around here, but right now the EPS and GEFS are showing our area near the inflection point of lower 500mb height anomalies upstream and higher height anomalies downstream. This generally would imply some storminess or a wetter pattern to content with during that period. But it may not pan out that way at all and even if it does that doesn't necessarily mean we are socked in with rain and/or low/mid stratus all day. On the hand even if a dry pattern pans out fair weather cumulous or even just cirrus could be a real buzz kill...
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:15:44 GMT -6
We may see the SPC introduce some risk areas Sunday and potentially Monday, but I think there may be too much uncertainty still in the northern extent of the warm sector/front, the potential for junk convection/showers, and the exact track of the surface low to delineate our specific area.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 26, 2024 15:57:33 GMT -6
May need to keep an eye on the time period around April 1st. Newer deterministic models runs and ensembles are indicating a better chance of being in the warm sector of an approaching trough with sufficient instability and shear for organized convection. If that holds some strong/severe storms may be on the table.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2024 18:53:30 GMT -6
Looks like 5 tornadoes have been confirmed by our local NWS office. All EF0.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2024 9:07:43 GMT -6
Local office confirms EF0 in Charlack.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:16:33 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:07:37 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge. Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change Did any tornadoes get confirmed? Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 15:00:56 GMT -6
Classic discrete supercell entering St. Charles CO. We've haven't seen many of those in the last several years.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 13, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -6
Again the severe weather today is occurring with dewpoints in the mid-50s. Tomorrow dewpoints should be up around 60.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 12, 2024 21:29:46 GMT -6
Quite a few severe reports with a marginal risk and no watches. System seems to be overperforming so far. And that's with dewpoints in the mid to low 50s.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2024 12:56:46 GMT -6
Euro has an unstable warm sector and lots of shear Thursday. It's initiating scattered storms early in the afternoon in MO. GFS on the other hand is further east and faster with the front and isn't generating much in the way of convection. We'll have to see how this plays out, but if the Euro is closer to reality then some severe weather may be in the forecast later this week.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2024 17:41:50 GMT -6
Completely off topic... Does anyone know of a good non-chain steakhouse or seafood restaurant near I-70 in the St. Charles, St. Peters, O'Fallon area? Napoli 3 is at I-70 and 5th in St. Charles. It's technically a chain because there's 3 of them in St. Louis but it's a local chain and locally owned. It's higher end with prime and Wagyu steaks. They have a sister restaurant right next door called Napoli Sea with fresh fish (they also offer the same steaks there). I've been to both, they are good but pricey.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 25, 2024 10:17:02 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2024 23:54:33 GMT -6
That's a real solid rainy deformation on the GFS for Saturday. Can't wait...
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 15:07:20 GMT -6
They must have just added that right? Don't remember seeing it there this morning...nice.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 6, 2024 7:25:21 GMT -6
Measured 2.2" but there is already a good bit of melting going on so I likely had more.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 5, 2024 22:40:40 GMT -6
And if anything remotely close to what the GFS shows next Friday actually pans out while I'm out of town I'm going to be p****d.
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