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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 16:17:49 GMT -6
RAP clobbers South Central Illinois with heavy, heavy snow for several hours. Really stalls from HRs 21-26 What are you talkin like Mount Vernon down to Carbondale area?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 16:15:21 GMT -6
I checked quite a few Zone forecast in the southern part of the Metro. The only County that has a mention of heavy snow is Monroe County Illinois
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 15:58:46 GMT -6
In similar situations we've seen snowfall rates exceed 2 inches per hour for some time. I don't see why this couldn't pull that off.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 15:48:30 GMT -6
The mention of low qpf catches my attention. Are the models under estimating how much this will crank out over those six to nine hours? With possibilities of convection you would think it would be a little higher
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 10:54:57 GMT -6
Is this starting to look like the storm it look like 6 days ago? Lol. It's crazy how it's cycled all the way around like this
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 18, 2019 10:53:59 GMT -6
FV3 goes boom...995mb low sliding up the Ohio River. That is the sweet track. We truly go backside on that.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 20:27:55 GMT -6
More progressive and disorganized than earlier. Ugh, hopefully it's messing up with the energy over texas Ya the 500 charts looks pretty terrible Horrible. Out to lunch
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 20:23:30 GMT -6
I don't drink. I guess I'll just chuckle.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 17:31:13 GMT -6
I got to ask about using the upper lows for guidance. That obviously doesn't apply to the far-flung waa events that we sometimes have. This system definitely has the potential to produce some warm air advection snow up in Northern Illinois that are the largest in Missouri or Illinois.
So are the upper lows more about the deformation band?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 12:27:11 GMT -6
Wonder what the meter looks like?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 11:59:21 GMT -6
And now we have all those choices but we still don't know what it means as far as amounts, do we?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 11:49:59 GMT -6
The dark blue appears to be the least progressive and theoretically should produce the most snow. We'll see
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 11:46:32 GMT -6
Those are just for projected tracks that may change. The angles and the placement are still up in the air. At least we got a neighborhood.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 11:38:44 GMT -6
Oh goody, we only have four possible heavy snow tracks to look at. I'm glad it's narrowed down. They're are at least in the same neighborhood. I vote for mr. Green or mr. Dark blue
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 9:54:58 GMT -6
The NAM who does seem to put more curve on to it and bring it into the Ohio Valley. Just don't know what's going to happen here
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 9:17:45 GMT -6
If it slows enough and gets a bit more curve in the track EVERYTHING changes
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 8:56:07 GMT -6
What I don't get is how they have the low charging East Northeast like it's going to go all the way over the mountains like that. Usually they got a little more bend and another low reforms. I don't know. Just seems a little strange
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 7:08:09 GMT -6
I know there is a lot of emphasis put on the upper lows. If I was just going to look at the surface low track I would say the best waa would be north of here because the low tracks quite a bit north of the Red River Valley, and if it develops deformation band it will move rather quickly, so it won't give a ton of accumulation. That straight East track is just not favorable for the deformation band to hang around here and the speed makes it worse.
Just my thoughts.
A little correction. It's not traveling due east, but it's not going up into the Ohio Valley like most of our favored storms would. If it turned up a little sharper we could be "back side" for a while
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 5:06:46 GMT -6
Always looking back at '82 to see why it was perfect. The low not only went through the Memphis area the angle it took was absolutely perfect. This may be a possible Memphis low, but where it is coming from and where it is going to after is not exactly perfect. Too far N before and too far E after. It's also booking along fairly quickly.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 4:41:17 GMT -6
Low does strengthen, but it moves pretty quickly and doesn't pull up. Sure it goes over Memphis, but not exactly a good angle, IMO.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 19:03:23 GMT -6
That’s a significant change. I think many of us expected those totals to be tamed down a bit from this morning though lol. That sure doesn't look like much backside stuff
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 17:06:06 GMT -6
Holy moly. The WPC now has the low approaching Little Rock moving a little north of due east at 6 a.m. on Saturday with the pressure dropping
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:52:40 GMT -6
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:32:27 GMT -6
I got a lot of techniques about driving while it's snowing very heavily that I use. I got zero techniques for driving in freezing drizzle like we had that one time. I am so glad I only caught the edge of that, that day.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:10:37 GMT -6
I mean really folks, did anybody even imagine the I-44 shut down Friday? Not really. When we had that disasterous freezing drizzle event there were very few here that even appreciated it and I remember BRTN alerting us all to it. As inconsistent and Goofy as our winter weather is don't ever expect all lessons to be learned One lesson everyone can learn is to have a full tank of gas, winter supplies, food & water in your vehicle. I know its not possible for everyone to leave work early, but if it is possible, go for it. I also try to avoid major highways as much as possible, again, not possible in most cases. The shear volume of cars on the highways at any given time, much less the rush (2-3) hours would make 1-2" per hour of snow impossible for the DOTs to keep up with. Those are the important ones. You are at the mercy have every other driver if you're out there. On that Friday I drove along I-64 as long as I thought was prudent. I got off thinking I made the right choice. I got behind some idiot going 15 miles an hour on Route 15 and if we would have had some sort of incline we would have all been screwed at that kind of speed. Like you said, prepare for the worst because you never know who you are going to be behind. I probably driven well over a million miles professionally in my life. When it comes to snow my biggest fear is who do I end up behind. I can handle it by myself no matter how bad it gets. You know the biggest reason not to follow somebody too closely on a two-lane highway when it's snowing? What if they make a left hand turn and you have to come to a complete stop? There's no guarantee you'll get going again if you don't have 4-wheel drive. That's how tricky it gets and what people don't appreciate. You want to stay far enough behind them that you never have to come to a complete stop and that's a long way behind them.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:05:28 GMT -6
Honestly I was referring to drivers and MODOT.... I would hope drivers would need warnings and plan accordingly... and MODOT, while I appreciate the work they do, I think they could have performed a little better.... and I realize traffic volume affected that.... maybe I'm rambling now, sorry... You get an event like that at rush hour at those temperatures don't expect good things to happen. Most people don't even know the worst temperatures to get snow is between 29 and 32 degrees. If the pavement is cold enough it's likes trying to drive on soap. You get a rush hour situation where people have to come to a stop like they do in rush hours and you have an incline you can forget about it. If you don't have 4-wheel drive you're not going to get up that hill anymore. I've seen that happen on very slight inclines with snow.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:58:31 GMT -6
And the crazy thing about that freezing drizzle of that was that was not even considered a warning event. Oh boy. Easily one of the worst driving days in St Louis history
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:46:25 GMT -6
I mean really folks, did anybody even imagine the I-44 shut down Friday? Not really.
When we had that disasterous freezing drizzle event there were very few here that even appreciated it and I remember BRTN alerting us all to it.
As inconsistent and Goofy as our winter weather is don't ever expect all lessons to be learned
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:41:48 GMT -6
I remember a sure fire disastrous ice storm headed up 44 several years ago. My wife was working downtown. I was freaking and telling her to sound the alarm to get whoever to close the rather large law office. They waited longer than I thought prudent finally did. It was mostly sleet and pretty much a nuisance, no more. She told me to NEVER do that again as it made her look bad.
Couple of years ago we had the awful freezing drizzle event from hell. A few days later we had a zr event and everybody shut down. Wasn't even close to being as bad. I went to work that day, one of two drivers to show up, and delivered with little problem.
We will probably react "properly" if this one looks even close. False alarm and.........as time passes with more false alarms......
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:23:13 GMT -6
Hello all, just remember I am a weenie, I may have silly questions at times, but I'm trying to learn. I realize we're inside the 72 hr window for models. But what kind of timeline are they showing? Still freezing rain changing to snow around rush hour?? I'd hope the lessons were learned last week, but we know how that goes. Btw, I love reading this forum, you all have great insight and perspective.... thank you. Pray tell, exactly what lessons should have been learned by who?
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