If anyone wears long sleeves on july 4th I'll beat them senseless. Good grief.
In January when it is 73 degrees out you can bet I'm in shorts and a t-shirt. If it is going to be 48 degrees and rainy on a July night, I'll throw on a long sleeve shirt and jeans.
I never understood dressing for the month instead of the actual weather.
As reference, the record low for July 4th for St. Louis is 52*. I'd say Snowman's lips will be safe.
I also don't understand dressing for the month. I've had people comment on my clothing at work before, and I tell them that I spend 8+ hours of my workday indoors and about 2 minutes of it outdoors, which of those should I be dressed for?
15Z SREF calibrated severe probabilities suggest a moderate risk may be possible for tomorrow. Both 12 hour (ending at 6Z) and 24 hour (ending at 12Z) products peg the scale. In the past that's usually good for a moderate risk assuming probabilities continue to show elevated chances by the time they start the D1 outlooks.
Do you know how those probabilities are calculated? Are they the same as the SPC Outlooks (within 25 miles of a given point)?
Post by nascarfan999 on May 27, 2017 15:10:09 GMT -6
Things you don't see everyday...
"At 348 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado were located along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Newburg to 13 miles northwest of Salem to near Raymondville, moving northeast at 90 mph."
Trimmed back the threat in the KC area and I think trimmed back our tornado threat a touch, but otherwise steady as she goes. Some highlights from the latest outlook:
12z and subsequent model guidance shows substantial uncertainty regarding the details of the convective evolution later today, so little changes have been made to the ongoing forecast areas.
It appears likely that clusters of intense thunderstorms will form by mid afternoon over parts of southeast KS/western MO/far northeast OK, in vicinity of remnant boundaries and where extreme instability is present. A potent combination of MLCAPE values over 5000 J/kg and effective helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 suggests that initial storms will likely become supercellular with a risk of giant hail and tornadoes (perhaps strong). An evolution toward bow/lewp structures is indicated by all model solutions, with one or more fast-moving bow echoes likely to track from southern MO into western KY this evening. This potential derecho would result in widespread and potentially significant wind damage.
According to spc we may see a upgrade to high risk for wind in our area later
Here are portions of the 8am discussion. Will have to wait and see if things sort out better by the next outlook update.
The ongoing convection over northeastern KS was forecast by most of the synoptic and high-res progs initializing from 00-09Z to weaken and shrink much sooner than evident in current coverage/intensity. This casts some uncertainty on the northern and western parts of the outlook area, in two ways: 1. Whether this initial convection and related isallobaric perturbation will evolve into or directly influence the eventual/expected major wind-producing MCS as it encounters diurnally destabilizing air over eastern KS and western MO, and/or 2. The influence of the trailing outflow boundary on subsequent thunderstorm potential over south-central/southeastern KS. Thunderstorms either developing along this boundary, or crossing it from behind, should gain access to surface-based inflow and expand/intensify rapidly.
An upgrade may be warranted later today. However, uncertainties related to influence of the ongoing activity and timing of greatest storm organization preclude offering any more-focused unconditional probabilities at this time.
Ok.. i need your help. Any areas that any of you know about that have flood water and damage but have not recvd coverage? I need a fresh storline today.
Washington Missouri bridge closed last night. Section of Dutzow is flooded in southern warren county. Marthasville is still holding but fearing the worse. Treloar MO is flooding as well.
I've heard/seen almost nothing out of Hermann. West Alton has received some coverage, but the Missouri is expected to crest tonight so their biggest danger zone is approaching. I also saw something on Facebook about road closed signs getting stolen and/or damaged in Lincoln County, but don't have any details. Finally, not necessarily one I envision you going to report on, but could run more video from some of the more extreme damage from southern and southwest Missouri. I know I've seen various photos and videos online of houses completely swept away and bridges completely destroyed.
Good news: The evening Meramec forecast for Arnold has been lowered essentially to the current level. Bad news: The secondary crest has been raised to essentially the current level.
Wow is all I can say. Never thought that I'd see 142 closed for 8 days straight from flooding
This really puts MODOT in a bind regarding both I-44 and I-55 as the secondary crests are now predicted to be very near the levels required to close each. As predicted, 141 would be flooded until Monday night or early Tuesday, although reopening would depend on damage inspection. For their sake hopefully the forecast changes based on what ends up falling and doesn't put them in too big of a pickle.
What are the chances 55 northbound is open Friday evening?
Based on the current hydrograph, I think there is a decent chance it never closes. There is only 0.4' to go to the crest. That said, until we know exactly how much and where this storm system drops rain, there will be some uncertainty in the forecast. MODOT really seems to have taken the stance of "Under-promise, Over-deliver" with this event. I understand the reasoning, but it sure makes it tough to get a straight answer.
Doubtful. Once a river is out of its bank, the water levels can become more erratic at times as the water "finds" new places to flood. When there is a levee breech or overtopping, water can flow into that area and lower the river level itself, at least temporarily. If you look upstream at the observations you will see similar swings before it actually crested.
The radar pretty much has to be seeing some flakes at distance. I don't believe it's raining that hard out over Central Missouri
Hard to tell from our radar because there is the dead zone of actual observation sites out there way, but using KC's radar to check, it estimates between 0.50-0.75" of rain in the Sedalia area in the last hour. The hourly report at 8:53am for the Sedalia airport reported only 0.25" of rain.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6