I just read the forecast on the channel 2 weather, it states "decreasing clouds this afternoon" Clouds have been moving into my area & increasing (not decreasing)?? right now, I'm getting partial sunshine due to the cloud cover?? What gives??? temp at 90°
Sun finally came out here about 530 or so
Pretty neat clearing line when I left work around 6. Certainly looked darker to the east than I thought it would.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 10, 2017 12:00:59 GMT -6
Apparently Jeff Pitotrowski realized that the car wash in Harvey gave him little protection, so this time he's just driving around in his car. I gave him the benefit of the doubt with Harvey, but what an idiot.
Having the ocean go out of the bay like that is creepy. What causes that to happen?
As I understand it, the same cause of storm surge, but opposite. In this case, the wind is currently blowing hard enough out to sea that it is pushing water off the coast. However, as soon as the eye passes and the winds shift, all that water (and then some) will come back in.
You have to wonder if at some point one of these extreme hurricane chasers is going to underestimate surge and find themselves in a dire situation.
I also wonder about these news crews and their fancy satellite trucks out on the Keys. As someone said yesterday if one of those bridges gets wiped out that big expensive piece of equipment could be largely useless for weeks/months. Especially once they run out of fuel for its generators. You might be able to get the reporters off the island on a boat. But the satellite truck is going to take considerably more.
I'm not aware of any satellite truck or formal news crew on the keys. The closest I saw was an NBC crew just south of Homestead. All of the reports from the keys are residents or storm chasers using "consumer" technology to broadcast online.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 9, 2017 17:43:34 GMT -6
I know that there are only so many colors to go around, but given the amount of tornadoes that occur in tornadoes, the NWS really needs to change the color of either the hurricane warning or tornado warning on their map.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 9, 2017 16:53:20 GMT -6
PDS Tornado Warning for Broward for a "a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado". Is it possible to get significant tornadoes from a hurricane? I thought that, while common, they were generally small and weak and not something that would prompt a PDS warning?
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 9, 2017 14:10:43 GMT -6
Even if you make it through the storm, all it takes is 1 bridge failure to leave Key West isolated for weeks or months. I know they are the experts, but I was surprised to see the Key West NWS stay on site. I would think they could still effectively do their job while still evacuating to a different office.
Big jog s.w. toward Cuba per Glenn's satellite views
Some are arguing that it actually is moving due west and the SW appearance is only due to eyewall contracting. Not sure if that is the case or not.
Based on recon I would say the camp arguing that it was SW did win the argument, although the change is negligible thus far to the overall forecast. Below image used a rectangle box to show that the track between recon passes was WSW.
I'm really starting to get that sinking feeling deep in my gut... The kind I got before Hurricane Katrina and more recently just before the tornado in Perryville and the hurricane in Houston. that sick feeling that something catastrophic is about to happen and there's nothing we can do to stop it b
Yeah, I got goosebumps earlier today when I was reading the discussion, seeing the tracks, and watching video of it hitting the islands. This is not going to be good. If the Euro is right, evacuating to Orlando is an exercise in futility. At this point, for people that can, they should get in their cars and drive north north north as far as they can go. For folks that don't have the means, there could be a tremendous loss of life -- and as mentioned earlier in this thread .. not so sure it's going to flooding-related like Katrina (both in terms of scale and size), but rather wind damage.
Harvey was severely damaging, don't get me wrong.. But Irma could be catastrophic. Media/government officials are going to have to think of new adjectives to describe this potential mess.
The biggest problem right now is highways getting out are jammed and gas is becoming harder and harder to find. If you are on the Florida Keys right now, I don't know if you can get out of the state or even get to Orlando. I've heard they are escorting fuel trucks into the area to help, but I'm worried it is too little too late. Meanwhile, if you do get on the road with gas out of Miami on the turnpike, it is heavy most of the way to the state line and even at points up to/through Atlanta. I've seen no attempts to use contraflow in Florida or even opening up the shoulders as extra lanes (which at this point may be impossible due to cars running out of gas).
Sure hope things improve over the next 48 hours to get people out.
It seems like Georgia/SC are not getting the attention they deserve with this situation. The impacts there could be huge.
Couldn't agree more. Yes Florida is first in order but if it stays over water then makes its turn toward the SC coast, either savannah or Charleston will be in a bad way. My wife and I have been to Charleston twice..just a couple months ago. Would hate to see all the historical stuff go under.
I did hear that SC governor issued a state of emergency today, so that would indicate that at least the government there is taking it seriously. Hard to get the media to focus on where a weakened (although still very violent) storm might go in 6 days when there are multiple times more people being impacted by a more serious storm in 4-5 and various smaller areas being impacted by a historically serious storm right now. As long as the residents, visitors, and government are taking it seriously there, that is what matters.
Unfortunately for me I have relatives near Daytona whose plan as of this morning was to evacuate to relatives in SC if needed. I do not know exactly where in SC or how well built the home is, but needless to say I am concerned.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 6, 2017 19:04:39 GMT -6
Florida evacuation traffic starting to pick up in places. I-75 has heavy pockets starting just outside of Tampa and going off and on all the way to Lake City/I-10 (near Georgia border). I-95 heading north out of Miami also pretty heavy for a stretch. Glad to see lots are getting out now, but afraid what Friday and Saturday are going to look like and just hope everyone gets to where they need to be ahead of the storm.
The gfs just has it go straight vertical, virtually impacting the entire state. The only saving grace is the speed, it will not sit like Harvey.
Still time to change, but this was the run I was most looking for considering it has the extra observations included and is now within 5 days. I'm afraid it is going to be tough to get a big swing in the models at this point. On the other hand, it will only take a little nudge to come up with any solution that is better for Florida (Cuba landfall, slight change in timing of turn to either miss Florida to east or west).
I continue to be amazed at how well Irma threads the needle between all those islands and then puts Florida right in the bullseye.
Edit: I would wait for the rest of the 0z models before stating the above, but headed to bed before they can finish and am assuming they do not throw any curveballs.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 4, 2017 18:54:49 GMT -6
So I see now that weather underground's "Save Image" doesn't actually save the image. Below is what I was referring to around Weldon Springs earlier. This was also off the terminal radar not the main one.
Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 4, 2017 16:54:38 GMT -6
Speaking of, am I the only one who thinks 48 hours isn't enough notice for a hurricane watch? I'm not necessarily saying Florida should be under one now (although it may not be a bad idea), but to have to wait until ~Thursday for that seems too late. Fortunately people are choosing not to wait for it to be official and are getting ready now. Worried about the highways and traffic later in the week depending on how evacuations go. Not easy to get millions out of the southern half of Florida even with contraflow.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6
kkwhit: Would be nice to have 2 events this week!
Jan 18, 2016 23:21:16 GMT -6
evilmonkey: shout box, shout box, let it all out box
Jan 18, 2016 20:33:42 GMT -6
Jan 18, 2016 17:26:56 GMT -6
snowday_lover: I was thinking this was to start late tomorrow night...are we thinking earlier? I'm in Ironton, so I'm not holding my breath for much per the maps that have been drawn up. I'm thinking a little bit of sleet and frz drizzle. Is that correct? It's a balmy 18
Jan 18, 2016 14:32:51 GMT -6
dschreib: You know you make me wanna...
Jan 18, 2016 9:32:36 GMT -6