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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 1, 2019 17:50:51 GMT -6
Nascar, I use weather.cod.edu/ for my desktop. It is free and they have many options including differential reflectivity and correlation coefficient Thanks. That is what I am using right now when WU isn't working, but it is lacking in a few ways. It doesn't appear to have the Lambert radar, doesn't allow for animation or zoom for higher tilt angles (and the zoom is much clunkier), and the zoom resets anytime you switch a product. Weather Underground when working didn't have any of those issues, although COD does have the Correlation Coefficient which WU doesn't.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 1, 2019 17:37:41 GMT -6
Looking for recommendations on either free or low cost radars to use with a desktop (website or software, no apps). I've used Weather Underground for years, but it seems they are discontinuing their Nexrad radars as they are not working more often that they are these days.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 31, 2019 18:59:47 GMT -6
bdgwx, if you were at the STL riverfront today, we might have been there at the same time! Did they move this guy (Lewis or Clark?) from nearer the Eads Bridge? I remember snapping a photo from there. I'm pretty sure they moved him to higher ground to keep it from constantly flooding.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 30, 2019 19:58:14 GMT -6
MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR WEST QUINCY (MO) DUE TO LEVEE BREAK. TAKE ACTION NOW TO LEAVE THE AREA. MAJOR FLOODING IN WEST QUINCY IS IMMINENT - AUTHORITY NORTH FABIUS DRAINAGE DISTRICT That leaves Hannibal as the only open river crossing between Alton and Fort Madison Iowa. The "good" news in this is that this levee break along with others north of us are lowering the waters a bit. Not sure if that will hold long term or just delay the crest.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 29, 2019 21:59:29 GMT -6
Play Gloria!
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 22, 2019 20:36:57 GMT -6
Cell NW of columbia mo looks mean From STL NWS Twitter: "932 pm - spotter reports large tornado located north of Midway moving east."
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 22, 2019 19:21:01 GMT -6
Maybe today could of used the high risk..... Anyone else having issues logging into the forum? I’ve had numerous error messages today I had a little trouble early this morning..not since Yes, I was unable to login about an hour ago. Seems to be working fine now though.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 21:22:21 GMT -6
Tornado threat had moved out, Blues headed to Boston. Is it time to talk about the river forecasts again? Mississippi is currently forecasted to get back up to 42 feet again and that doesn't take into account the next few days of rain Perhaps the most important development is now on the Missouri where it is forecasted to reach 36.6 ft in St. Charles which would be the highest crest since 1993 (and roughly 5 ft higher than the previous crest this month). I don't know how much of today's rain was included in that forecast, but my gut says the eventual crest may be higher than that.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 18:26:51 GMT -6
1. If the radar is percise on location, it JUST missed the town of Augusta to the south/east and would have been over very rural areas. 2. It may take some time to get to the hard hit areas given the rural nature. The fact that we've heard nothing scares me more because it makes me assume all communication is down in that area. I just got off the phone with a friend of mine who lives just outside of Augusta. Rode it out in their basement. Said that at their house, little to no damage...just some very small branches laying in their yard. Called his cell so communications are still good into that area. Thank you! May I ask in which direction outside of Augusta? South and East is what looked to take the hit.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 18:14:19 GMT -6
How on earth are there no damage reports coming out of that? Saving grace may be that it was at its worst over rural areas. Hopefully lots of that debris was leaves. 1. If the radar is percise on location, it JUST missed the town of Augusta to the south/east and would have been over very rural areas. 2. It may take some time to get to the hard hit areas given the rural nature. The fact that we've heard nothing scares me more because it makes me assume all communication is down in that area.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 17:29:27 GMT -6
Watch the rotation along 70 and Lake St. Louis. Looks broad but increasing.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 17:19:26 GMT -6
That radar image is so impressive. Making a scary bee line for the NWS office too Is it just me, or is the original circulation gone and the energy shifting back to the leading edge of the line closer to 40/64?
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 21, 2019 17:11:09 GMT -6
I'm sure you all are watching fox 2 but NWS says large tornado on the ground. Wow look at that debris ball! Bad bad deal. Can you get a debris ball that big over farmland or would it had to have hit the town of Augusta?
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 6, 2019 8:59:09 GMT -6
Wonder what's going on with the tornado sirens. They tested it at 9 AM as they should. And now here at 920 it's sounded twice more for a few seconds each time. They are having to test the sirens by section instead of the whole county at once. Those in Portage Des Sioux and West Alton are expecting the siren to sound if there is a levee break and so they excluded those sections from the monthly test to not put those residents on high alert mistakenly.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 3, 2019 22:17:17 GMT -6
.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019 While we all know history has a tendency to repeat itself and records are meant to be broken, we have a long way to go before we can compare this flood to the Great Flood of 1993. The current river forecast along the Mississippi River in our Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) is several feet below the Great Flood of 1993. That being said, the similarities of this spring and what occurred during the summer of 1993 are concerning, but not alarming, yet. The table has been set, with elevated river levels and saturated soil across the Midwest thanks to a banner winter snow season and heavy precipitation this spring. However, lets be honest, we have seen spring flooding of this magnitude in several years prior to and after 1993. In fact, the Mississippi River at St. Louis has rose above 40 feet, major flood stage, three times in the last decade (2013, 2016, 2017). What made 1993 so special and ultimately set it apart from all other floods, was the repeated heavy rain events that occurred during the summer of 1993. Did you know that at least one inch of rainfall was observed in the Mississippi River Basin 75% of the days (69) between June 1 and August 31 of 1993? There were FIFTEEN rainfall events in June and July of 1993 that produced over six inches of rain in the Midwest and some locations in Iowa saw over 40 inches of rain that summer! The result was unprecedented and widespread flooding, with 20 million acres of land and 75 towns inundated, with thousands of homes, businesses and lives altered forever. The latest official one month (May) and three month outlooks (May- June-July) from the Climate Prediction Center favor above normal precipitation to continue into the summer across a large portion of the Midwest. While prolonged flooding is anticipated to occur this month and into the summer, the probability of seeing a flood on the scale and magnitude of 1993 across our HSA remains low. Those with interests along the Mississippi River and its tributaries are urged to continue to monitor the latest river stages and forecasts from the National Weather Service at water.weather.gov. CVKING(Fish) I may be in the minority, but I felt the local NWS was a little dismissive to the current threat. Maybe less so in this discussion as it does pay some respect to the situation, but I was not a fan of the graphic they posted this morning. Yes, the current situation is not as bad as the worst flood in recorded history, but it has started out just as bad, if not worse. Add in human stupidity that has exaggerated the flooding (new levees) plus a medium and long term forecast for continued wet weather, and there is a very reasonable scenario where this could compare to 1993 before all is said and done.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2019 18:29:28 GMT -6
Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. That last part is so true...the levee system is absolutely a double edged sword! The network of levees keep floodwaters from backing into natural wetlands and as a result increases stream flow and velocity. And I see a lot of examples of people arguing flooding severity and frequency as a side effect of climate change but they fail to capture or consider changes in land use and practices over the years. Much in the same way poor land use and farming practices made the dust bowl exponentially worse, the same can be said for flooding. There's a strong argument being made currently that the upward trend of excessive field tile usage on cropland is making runoff much more rapid leading to increased flooding risk downstream. We're going to have to start having some serious discussions about what can and needs to be done to mitigate flooding risk or it will continue to get worse. You only have to look back to 2016 to see a similar flooding event... Obviously every flood is different, but the one comparison I could draw from that report on '93 is the current rise at the St. Louis gauge. The St. Louis gauge had fallen to around 30.3' midday of 4/30 and is projected to crest at 42.5' on the evening of 5/5.That is a 12.2' rise in just over 5 days. Comparing the similar levels in '93, the river was around 32' on July 3rd and rose to a crest at 43' on July 12th. Thus in '93 it took 9 days to rise 11 feet compared to 5 days to rise 12 feet this year. I would love to be able to do this across the dozens of reporting sites if the '93 data is available as this one comparison doesn't prove anything.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2019 16:58:29 GMT -6
If that holds up we may truly be looking at a potential replay of 1993. That would not be good. The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 14, 2019 16:22:57 GMT -6
If I remember correctly we had some snow showers in the middle of April last year..... Im thinking it was April 16 I don't remember anything on/around April 16, but we did have snow on Easter last year (April 1st).
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 7, 2019 19:48:33 GMT -6
I swear I hear sirens coming from belleville direction... I'm watching 2x2 and they did go off somewhere in St. Clair County as the met was trying to awkwardly explain that there was no tornado threat and they went off as an outdoor warning for the wind/hail.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 30, 2019 17:51:26 GMT -6
Latest river levels are up... not surprising with the rainfall totals... I'm really worried for what the next 30-60 days hold with the rivers. What that snapshot doesn't show you is that the current forecast on the Mississippi north of St. Louis has the river remaining within a couple feet of those crests through at least mid-April. Any rain over that period will slow that fall/cause additional rises and I believe a couple of posts here have indicated a wet April.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 30, 2019 9:29:38 GMT -6
I'll be curious to see what the KSTL rain total is since midnight. It was really coming down a couple of times Based on the hourly reports it looks like they are in the 1.1-1.2" range as of 10am.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 28, 2019 22:16:30 GMT -6
Is it just me or have the radar rain estimates continually under-estimated the actual rainfall for at least the past year or so? For example, the only 2 reports posted here are both over an inch while the Storm Total Precip on the NWS website would show both place between a half inch and an inch with only a small sliver going over an inch. I don't remember this being a problem years ago but it seems lately that the actual reports are always higher than the radar estimates. Any thoughts or ideas (or am I just crazy)?
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 24, 2019 16:30:54 GMT -6
Can I ask if Chris has mentioned his beloved beagle Daisy lately? I know it’s nasty out, but just thought I’d pose the question when it settles down enough to answer! Nothing that I have seen and I don't believe I've missed any pages. Regarding the other post, I've not seen any problems with the forums on my end.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 21, 2019 20:29:30 GMT -6
For those who have been talking about spring flooding, NOAA has an experimental long-range flooding outlook available here.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 15, 2019 18:53:17 GMT -6
Very unscientific measurement of 1.75-2" in Creve Coeur about 90 minutes ago.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 15, 2019 7:26:29 GMT -6
May not know that until late morning or lunchtime. Unless things really shift south again however I think St. Clair county will remain in it for at least the southwest half of the county which is more likely to see advisory level conditions. I ask because my point forecast dropped from 3 to 1. While I agree that timing is grounds for advisory, the amount isnt exactly advisory level. Wind isnt a factor and temp isnt either. I think they are very unlikely to drop the advisory unless they are 100% certain of a bust. The last thing they would want to do is cancel the advisory only to have enough snow fall to cause issues (which given the timing and our driving ability is not much).
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 14, 2019 18:36:51 GMT -6
Jack pot jackpot jackpot...no whammy no whammy no whammy. STOP Let's see if we can pull a Michael Larson on the whammy with this storm.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 12, 2019 20:51:44 GMT -6
I'm not trying to be snarky, but if a wind adviosry were hoisted for STL and surrounding counties -- what changes? Whats the point of even having the advisory at all then? I'm just giving factors to why it would be perfectly logical and then MoDOT would put it on the digital boards. Its safety and CYA. And also allows for insurance to take factors into account for truckers. The last thing we need is an excuse for MODOT to put something else on their message boards instead of actual travel times and incidents. Every time it is remotely possible to raining, snowing, or being below freezing they remove the valuable information with their generic slow down/watch for ice on bridges and overpasses messages.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 9, 2019 20:50:26 GMT -6
Yes it came in a little more juicy especially I 44 coordinator Well you can tell whomever is in charge of coordinating I-44 to do away with the ice.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jan 20, 2019 17:32:08 GMT -6
M0.75" 2 N St. Charles
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