Post by MakeitRain on May 18, 2017 11:13:28 GMT -6
The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
Post by grizzlebeard on May 18, 2017 12:35:55 GMT -6
In traveling this weekend, I am going to be camping in an area where some severe storms are likely. I am not familiar with the nearby towns and county by county layout, so listening to weather radio will be of little use if something kicks up.
Any recommendations on the best free weather app to track approaching storms and keep an eye on the radar using phone location?
A QPC forecast I saw earlier today (don't remember for what time frame) had KC in a bulls eye of 5+ inches of rain and STL in another bulls eye of 4+ inches. Just when the rivers are finally getting back in their banks again.
I just moved the bee hives back into the river bottom last weekend. I hope we dont get those big rains anytime soon. The river would have to come up 24 feet to get to them again, but it wouldnt be unheard of. Moving them this time of the year is a pain.
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 18, 2017 13:00:15 GMT -6
WFO graphic shows line of storms moving through right around the same time as the morning rush between 5AM-7AM (metro-area), Friday commute could be rough.
Our probabilities for severe tomorrow afternoon/evening will likely hinge on how quickly morning convection clears out of the area and if any substantial sun can be realized. If things do clear out by mid morning say before 10AM then things could be considerably rougher and the risk of more intense storms will grow. Dynamics won't be as strong tomorrow as they are over OK/TX/KS but could still be enough for some potent storms with damaging winds and hail (perhaps quite large), though a couple tornadoes can't be ruled out. Best chances will be along and west of the Mississippi River where clearing should be more likely and occur sooner then on the Illinois side.
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 18, 2017 13:17:17 GMT -6
Also tonight's the night for Dave's Summer Forecast @9:30, then likely an encore presentation Friday @5/6PM followed by Facebook soon after. If he doesn't go with swings this Summer I'll probably be surprised be we shall soon see.
Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.
Post by Chris Higgins on May 18, 2017 21:21:01 GMT -6
A small ribbon of isolated storms will likely develop north of STL over the next few hours along the stalled front as large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave along with LLJ begin to do their magic. I think they will tend to be "popcorny" in a west to east band for a while.
The activity coming out of KS and OK is going to eventually weaken some as it crosses the state...but there is enough instability hold on tonight to keep gusty winds and some hail potential alive with remnants of the MCS as it presses across the area between 4am and 8am.
I'm going to keep much of Friday dry after the AM activity...then get very interested in the returning outflow/composite boundary that I think will end up very near I-70 by late afternoon. This is a potential powderkeg for supercells with large hail and a tornado threat if we recover. For that reason I am highlighting the I-70 corridor as an "elevated risk" zone for tomorrow afternoon/evening...as well as what should be a new squall line coming into the I-44 corridor by evening.
Post by shrapnel - Osage Beach, MO on May 18, 2017 21:33:32 GMT -6
No one needed to see Daves feet....wth lol.
Osage Beach MO Sent using tapagoogwax for twitbook v3.5 via flux capacitor. You could have kept your mouth shut and let people wonder, instead of opening it and removing all doubt. All men die, few men ever really live.
Post by Chris Higgins on May 18, 2017 22:54:54 GMT -6
If SPC mesoanalysis page is to be believed, there is plenty of SBCAPE and MLCAPE available to maintain strong storms overnight...right up I-44 into STL. values drop off rapidly southeast of STL... but a nice CAPE ridge extends right up I-44 into STL. So would expect strong storms may make it into the STL area after 4am or so. Shear weakens considerably...northeast...but the CAPE should be enough to keep at least strong to near severe wind potential.
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2017 2:07:54 GMT -6
Nasty tornado warned storms in a bow echo coming out of the Branson area at 3 am. If the Radarscope vectors are accurate heading this way if they don't weaken. Chris, your I-44 setup may either be early or get a sneak preview.
And much of Iowa is covered by moderate rain that doesn't seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere. No flash flood warnings. But that won't help getting our large rivers back to normal flows any time soon.
Started off rather slow, but after a couple minutes wow did the wind howl. And it continued for almost 10 minutes, and just pouring, looked like hurricane. Also, something I've never seen before. I was looking west, right as the brunt was coming in, and it would lightning, then there was a blue flash close to the ground. I'm sitting kind of low here at the hotel, with buildings in the way of my view. It happened about 3 or 4 times. I thought it was power flashes for a minute, but power still looks on back there. Weird.
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6