Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 9, 2017 7:40:46 GMT -6
***The potent storm that is bringing snow to Denver this morning will bring a chance of a few strong to severe storms Tuesday for some of our area***
Areas of fog this morning will burn off to mostly sunny skies. Summer is back with temperatures today surging well into the 80s.
A small, fairly fast moving storm system that is producing snow in Denver today, will spread a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the region late tonight through Tuesday. Storms late tonight could produce a lot of lightning, brief downpours and some small hail.
There will likely be a lull in storm activity after about 9am Tuesday until early afternoon. The wind set-up in the atmosphere is supportive of a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon....depending on the amount of sunshine after the morning storms and how quickly the atmosphere is able to heat back up. This is a somewhat marginal set-up.
The potential does exist Tuesday afternoon for a few isolated storms to produce some stronger wind gusts, hail...and maybe even a tornado or two. The zone of greatest concern will be from STL metro south and east...or roughly in the triangle along/south of I-64...and along east of I-55. (SEE GRAPHIC)
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 9, 2017 15:27:30 GMT -6
Wednesday just looking more and more brrr-ish. Seems like the trends are for highs to struggle to get out of the 50s in some places. A few spots in central and east central Missouri might not even crack above 55 with 58 to 61 degrees for just about everyone else with some 10-15 mph winds. Nothing to write home about, but with dense low overcast skies and possibly some drizzle in the air it's gonna feel raw compared to the past several weeks. Thursday might also be quite chilly as well depending on how long the clouds stick around. The NAM says they stick around until Thursday late afternoon to evening especially along and east of the Mississippi which could yield another day where areas socked all day in the clouds will see upper 50s to low 60s while areas south and west into southwestern and central Missouri see mid to upper 70s. Too bad the fall blitz doesn't last, but at least we're getting a taste if anything else.
Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2017 15:45:28 GMT -6
Low topped supercells look likely tomorrow as the strong shortwave comes through here. The severe threat isn’t great but the metro points north and east has the highest chance for some severe in my opinion. Surface winds will be backed at the surface so the tornado threat is small, but existent
Post by shrapnel - Osage Beach, MO on Oct 9, 2017 16:23:56 GMT -6
Sunny and 86 here in Osage Beach today! Lots of boats and jet skis out enjoying the lake. Water temp not to bad at 78*
Osage Beach MO Sent using tapagoogwax for twitbook v3.5 via flux capacitor. You could have kept your mouth shut and let people wonder, instead of opening it and removing all doubt. All men die, few men ever really live.
I like 920's thinking regarding the small threat to the north. Instability will probably be higher to the south though and there is plenty of deep layer shear to make some supercells south of I-70, but I'd be surprised if any of them are tornadic. However, to the north of I-70 where surface winds are backed and 1km shear is higher I would not rule out an isolated tornado report. I'd probably start tomorrow with a marginal risk and then upgrade to a slight risk if nowcasting trends warrant a watch.
The GFS and NAM both show the shortwave weakening between 18z and 3z tomorrow afternoon/evening. So the system actually looks a bit messier than it potentially could be and the low level jet remains relatively weak (relative the ripping 80kt 500mb jet anyway) and veered. I think the tornado threat is iffy, but I do think a few severe reports are certainly possible.
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 10, 2017 1:32:24 GMT -6
Lots of lightning here with the storm that came between 1230 and 1. But not much rain. On radar we were on the western fringe. St. Charles City and St. Louis County looked to get a good douse. Let's see if that band to the west gives us something substantial or falls apart.
Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6