At this point the best we can do is look at the synoptic pattern (big picture). Can't hinge your hope on every model run's QPF or snow graphic. This the best overall pattern we have seen for winter precipitation this year. It will miss a good opportunity if it doesn't come together sometime between Christmas Eve and New Years Day. Plenty to be excited about, but lets not get too crazy...yet.
Alarm bells just went off on my computer. Fish posted.
Now we just need Mr. Koeller to stop by every now and then.
We must be really snow starved to be wishcasting based on 10 days out..bug picture has all the makings of something interesting; however, we have seen TONS of times of being in the bullseye 10 days out and not a flake falls...or we are dry. I'm just watching from afar and telling my co-workers (who saw the snow map) that there is no confidence in that solution and keep an eye on local forecasts, such as Fox 2.
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2017 23:01:10 GMT -6
00z gfs looks a bit better. Still shows suppression of course. But it looks like something wants to develop before the main over running event starts to our south. It showed this on the 18z GFS as well.
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2017 10:41:18 GMT -6
12z gfs has moved the wintry precip into northern Arkansas and the southern fringes of Missouri next weekend. A little further north and we are in for some prolonged winter weather. This is far from written.
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2017 10:47:39 GMT -6
Additionally, our old friend the arctic hammer is also back in a big way for Christmas night and beyond. -20 to -30 seeping into the northern plains. Let's get that system a bit further north and we will look like true winter around here during the holidays.
La nina patterns favor south and east of here Pattern looks suppressed Drought on going means drought likely wins The south has already had a significant winter storm It's St Louis If anyone has optimism they haven't lived here the last 2 years. lol
On top of all that, the 12z gem shows an ice storm Christmas night into the following day.
I don't understand the extreme pessimism. It is downright depressing.
It is the unfortunate side-effect of people looking so deep into the model fantasy world as to forget (or ignore) the fact that it is still 10 (now 9) days out.
The basic ingredients are still very much there for a potential storm... -Strong baroclinic boundary (surface front) -Plenty of cold air -Southwest flow aloft
Our potential for winter weather hinges on two key factors... -How cold and how strong will the surface high pressure be...and how far south does it get pushed -Does the upper low get buried in the desert southwest and the resulting southwest flow suppressed.... or does the northern stream try and phase with that southwest low...thereby ejecting it to east/northeast (jackpot scenario)...and there are actually several ensemble members of the GFS that show exactly that. In fact, a couple even have us in the warm sector. Unfortunately, there is precedent for both this fall. Systems have failed to get stuck and continued to sweep east...and systems have been buried in Mexico. The waffling of the models in this regard shows how close we are to a phase (the jackpot scenario).
So...let's not give 9-10 day out model guidance the same treatment/respect we used to reserve for days 4 or 5.
Nothing is off the table. As I stated in my write-up that started this thread...all options are just as possible...cold and dry....cold and wet...cold and wintry.
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2017 13:34:17 GMT -6
The differences between the GFS and Euro arise at hr 138. GFS holds back the energy and cuts it off into NW Mexico while the Euro ejects it and it quickly gets sheared out. Euro has no southern winter system at all. Does have some light snow around here Christmas eve. It would be a cold Christmas to
Cutoff (or partially cutoff) lows are notorious for being poorly modeled. Regardless of how D5+ time period plays out I still think the ensemble 500mb longwave pattern is one that is promising and could support anything from a progressive clipper to a cutoff southwest low. Yep, the pattern could even be a swing and miss for us.
Last Edit: Dec 16, 2017 13:54:40 GMT -6 by jmg378s
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6