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Post by mchafin on Dec 4, 2018 11:15:49 GMT -6
Big ole flakes falling at Ballas & Olive.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 4, 2018 11:25:24 GMT -6
yes he circled missouri,illinois Indiana and Ohio as his northward adjustment. guess wait and see . not sure why he thinks MJO is reason come north?do you?
I don't really follow teleconnections that much. My remedial understanding of MJO is that it is more frequently used for west coast precip outlooks and tropical cyclone activity outlooks. However, because I was curious, I did just come across a study showing some linkages to extratropical storm tracks over North America associated with MJO, but in that study it looked like you'd want MJO in phase 4, 5, or 6 to argue for a northward storm track. Besides, I'm not sure you can really glean anything useful at this lead time looking at the MJO because details matter when it comes to snow and it's not like modeling doesn't "know" about all these teleconnections anyway...they're the ones analyzing and forecasting them.
Don't get me wrong, there's still room for the storm to come north but it would be for more direct reasons. Like shortwave interactions, upper level jet positioning, etc. Keep in mind the average error for surface low tracks (which often isn't even the most important feature) in any given global model is going to be about 200-300 miles at day 5.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2018 11:27:05 GMT -6
Had a brief glimpse of some hazy sun just before 11 am. But now that's gone and I'm back to the few, but bigger than average snow flakes looking like they are trying to defy gravity. And succeeding to some degree.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 4, 2018 11:34:35 GMT -6
Hamsters. Beautiful snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 11:39:25 GMT -6
Super GFS looks good around here Thursday Some big hamsters falling here currently That looks like it could be a fast and furious hit...but it's really flying and probably won't last more than an hour at most at any one location. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 11:43:16 GMT -6
Super GFS looks good around here Thursday Some big hamsters falling here currently That looks like it could be a fast and furious hit...but it's really flying and probably won't last more than an hour at most at any one location. Surface temps are very borderline to so accumualtion might be difficult |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 4, 2018 12:04:22 GMT -6
Just reached the 2” mark on patio table. Roads etc just wet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 12:10:10 GMT -6
Just reached the 2” mark on patio table. Roads etc just wet. Crazy! |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 4, 2018 12:12:23 GMT -6
Just reached the 2” mark on patio table. Roads etc just wet. Crazy! I know and the way the crow flies just 3 miles away there is basically nothing on the ground at all. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 4, 2018 12:16:01 GMT -6
Snow in the city. Nothing before to the West and very little after. Look to be very localized That's why I asked. The accumulating snow has been VERY VERY isolated. We had video in Milstadt that showed about 1" and my jaw dropped. I was like... how did that happen (and when?) Nothing on radar looked like it could support that kind of snow there. I went into the gas station in millstadt at 650 and barely snowing. Walked out 5 minutes later and it was pouring snow. I had 3/4 to an inch on my car near althoff in West Belleville as well. Very localized event |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 4, 2018 12:19:05 GMT -6
Snowing pretty good in Pacific again.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 4, 2018 12:29:27 GMT -6
It was pouring snow here in Waterloo 30 mins ago. Quickly coated everything but as soon as it stopped it all melted away. Some giant flakes. Biggest I've seen this season so far.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 12:31:24 GMT -6
OMG THE Avengers 4 trailer just dropped and its freaking EPIC!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 4, 2018 12:35:13 GMT -6
sunshine
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 12:35:42 GMT -6
Had a 1/2" in Belleville looks like it melted.
Looks like we are in line to see a decent burst soon again
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 12:42:36 GMT -6
12z GEM and GFS both track the SLP west of the Appalachians before it re-develops off the SE coast...progress. The mid-level low really wants to lift after H96 but doesn't quite make it far enough north. But still well within the range where a considerable shift could occur. Models have quite a bit different look in the upper levels than before with that backside shortwave digging in and stalling the upper low.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 12:44:40 GMT -6
12z GEM and GFS both track the SLP west of the Appalachians before it re-develops off the SE coast...progress. The mid-level low really wants to lift after H96 but doesn't quite make it far enough north. But still well within the range where a considerable shift could occur. Models have quite a bit different look in the upper levels than before with that backside shortwave digging in and stalling the upper low. It would be nice for the main Southern vorticity to come out a little slower. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 12:45:21 GMT -6
But it is undoubtedly a much different look.
There was almost no phasing yesterday and before.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2018 12:54:03 GMT -6
Well the Euro is still south so that's ummmmmm not great.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 4, 2018 13:00:53 GMT -6
Just wait till the 00z model runs. I'm sure all will fine then.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 4, 2018 13:03:58 GMT -6
S++ whiteout conditions on the NE side of Waterloo!!
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Post by RyanD on Dec 4, 2018 13:04:22 GMT -6
Maybe only a 300ft visibility.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2018 13:10:08 GMT -6
I have sunshine again.. Not even murky or hazy - full sunshine. But judging by the clouds it's not going to last long
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 4, 2018 13:12:41 GMT -6
OMG THE Avengers 4 trailer just dropped and its freaking EPIC! Not seeing anything about it?? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2018 13:13:52 GMT -6
That 12z euro at the end of its run though lol.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 4, 2018 13:21:04 GMT -6
That 12z euro at the end of its run though lol. I mean the Euro is useless that far out. So there's that. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2018 13:25:25 GMT -6
That 12z euro at the end of its run though lol. I mean the Euro is useless that far out. So there's that. Not really true...had the current storm south for days...(12z run last Wednesday according to Tropical Tidbits) It does well at picking up on the presence of a storm at that range. The comment was a reflection of how mad this board would be to be missed next week because there is no cold air after being missed this week because the storm was too far south. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2018 13:40:31 GMT -6
And now I'm back to snow again. Even accumulating in the valleys on the roof of the houses a little.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 4, 2018 13:50:47 GMT -6
40 & 364- like someone dumping a torn bean bag chair- close to moderate
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 4, 2018 13:53:46 GMT -6
S+ up here now
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