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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 10, 2018 22:59:43 GMT -6
no deer for you addicted? Actually I already took 2 during bow season so I’m overstocked. Got a beautiful 12 point monster on my land though so if I get another deer I want to make it worthy so I can keep a good deer population on our 110 acre farm. I did see about 20 deer today though. Less this evening but this morning and early afternoon was crazy but freezing my backside off. Coldest opening day I’ve ever experienced for sure. The story gets more brutal from there after a thermos of coffee lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 10, 2018 23:08:16 GMT -6
no deer for you addicted? Actually I already took 2 during bow season so I’m overstocked. Got a beautiful 12 point monster on my land though so if I get another deer I want to make it worthy so I can keep a good deer population on our 110 acre farm. I did see about 20 deer today though. Less this evening but this morning and early afternoon was crazy but freezing my backside off. Coldest opening day I’ve ever experienced for sure. The story gets more brutal from there after a thermos of coffee lol Uh oh. Sounds like nature was a callin' lol. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 10, 2018 23:15:58 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/N3g4M6V.jpghere's me throwing my hat into the ring based on the latest data. To be fair, on air I specified dusting-.5 inch but it just doesn't look as pretty on paper that way.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2018 23:22:04 GMT -6
Beginning to think that some of the neighbors had a bright idea putting up their holiday decorations up right after Halloween-Election Day period as the models just keep slowing down the departure of the cold air mass invasions almost up till Thanksgiving now with temps finally cracking above 50 around that time. Unfortunately it also looks very soggy Thanksgiving into the "Dentist Day" e.i the 26/27th time period. Guess its gonna be the coldest putting up of the lights since 2013...  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 10, 2018 23:30:32 GMT -6
I'm sure we will get some 50s plus temps - I'm holding off until then to put my icicle lights up. I did manage to paint some fascias on the backside of my house last weekend. Was a bit chilly, but I'm sure the paint dried.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 10, 2018 23:33:22 GMT -6
Major Higgins, I wanted to thank you for your service as we approach Veterans Day. Thank you for this board as well. To all veterans on here, my gratitude for your unselfish service does not seem to serve justice. But you are the reason we enjoy the freedoms we have, and for that, a big THANK YOU! Whatever role any military member served, it was important enough to keep America great!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2018 23:34:34 GMT -6
Heck even the city put their stuff up record early this year. Usually the city doesn't put it's stuff up until a week before Thanksgiving. They had it up the weekend before Election day with the Santa Clauses, Candy Cane, Snowman lights on the street lights along Main Street.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 10, 2018 23:44:23 GMT -6
Beginning to think that some of the neighbors had a bright idea putting up their holiday decorations up right after Halloween-Election Day period as the models just keep slowing down the departure of the cold air mass invasions almost up till Thanksgiving now with temps finally cracking above 50 around that time. Unfortunately it also looks very soggy Thanksgiving into the "Dentist Day" e.i the 26/27th time period. Guess its gonna be the coldest putting up of the lights since 2013... I don't like that split flow the gfs tries to set up, especially with that bowling ball towards the end of the model run. But it's beyond the reliability window. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 10, 2018 23:58:51 GMT -6
My thoughts on the Monday system...
First, I'll get the negative stuff out of the way. PW values around 0.60" will generally be "only" about normal for this time of year, while we've seen some improvement in the track of the 850mb low today (many models had the track through northern MS earlier today) it's still fairly far south relative to the I-44 corridor, and what initially looks like a decent shortwave digging through the four corners with a distinct vorticity max is sorta getting ripped by the split flow into an elongated almost stagnant PV streamer...something I'm getting really tired of seeing by the way.
However, I think we will some some light frontogenetically forced precip north of I-44 late Sunday into earlier Monday, breaking down, and regenerating further east and south of I-44 later Monday. I think the NAM is way too generous with the initial wave, and while perhaps more reasonable with the second wave, still too wet. The latest UKMET is interesting with a precip max right up the I44 corridor, and while I'm willing to be wrong, I feel that is still a bit too far north. Given the combination of 700mb wave and 850mb closed low tracks I'm kinda thinking a Springfield to Perryville line may be a good first guess at axis of highest snow with maybe 0.2-0.25" liquid equivalent. With snow ratios starting out somewhat low and some of the forecast soundings hinting at under-saturation in the DGZ I'd probably frame max accumulations at around 2" or less initially.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 0:18:37 GMT -6
euro has the same thing its had for days.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 11, 2018 0:19:00 GMT -6
Amarillo TX on the other hand looks like they may get a legit early season winter storm.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 0:24:03 GMT -6
Euro showing the Thursday system now as well, very clear defined upper level low tracking very favorably guess you could call it secondary development as it's actually part of the energy from Monday's system that pinches off the main flow and cuts off.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 11, 2018 0:42:29 GMT -6
Euro showing the Thursday system now as well, very clear defined upper level low tracking very favorably guess you could call it secondary development as it's actually part of the energy from Monday's system that pinches off the main flow and cuts off. Interesting. Unusual. Seems very unlikely, but interesting. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 0:49:01 GMT -6
Euro showing the Thursday system now as well, very clear defined upper level low tracking very favorably guess you could call it secondary development as it's actually part of the energy from Monday's system that pinches off the main flow and cuts off. What's the temps looking like |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 1:11:41 GMT -6
850s and surface temps would be plenty cold for snow the end of next week. Euro has warning level stuff.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 1:23:07 GMT -6
Friv-there is a place that has euro free. Lots of maps.
weather.us
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 11, 2018 1:36:09 GMT -6
Major Higgins, I wanted to thank you for your service as we approach Veterans Day. Thank you for this board as well. To all veterans on here, my gratitude for your unselfish service does not seem to serve justice. But you are the reason we enjoy the freedoms we have, and for that, a big THANK YOU! Whatever role any military member served, it was important enough to keep America great! Well said. Thank you also to the families of Veterans who also serve by living their day-to-day lives while always having that loved one in their mind, with all that goes with.you have my deepest respect |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 11, 2018 1:41:13 GMT -6
Amarillo TX on the other hand looks like they may get a legit early season winter storm. NWS Amarillo is already forecasting 4-7“ for the counties near them. With any wind at all that should make for some nifty drifting |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 3:16:56 GMT -6
06z Nam is much better organized.
Has like 2-4" along 44/64 through the metro.
And 3-5" over the SW portion of the metro.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 3:20:49 GMT -6
 No joke folks. I love it. Only 30 hours away. Please weather Gods please make this happen |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 4:25:36 GMT -6
I like Fish's snow experiment video. I also like the page. I have a 59% chance of 2 or more inches on Monday, 30% of 2 or moere and 1% of 4 or more. Haha.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 5:02:28 GMT -6
As of right now I'm glad I stuck my neck out on this one. Let's make it happen tomorrow!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 5:47:18 GMT -6
WOW .. Things are trending towards a legit 12-16 hour 3-7" event. THAT'S A MASSIVE SYSTEM. going to be a huge area of lift.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2018 5:56:11 GMT -6
Euro is unreal for the metro.
Very interesting looking storm later in the week. Odd but interesting.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 5:56:34 GMT -6
The vagueness of the forecast discussion Tell's me they aren't sure of how this is going to play out with the system trending more amplified and wetter.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 6:04:33 GMT -6
The Nam and then are getting juicier every single run.   |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 6:20:01 GMT -6
This system reminds me a lot of the Christmas Eve snowfall back in 2010 or 2011 when it wasn't originally slated to be much until last minute when it turned into a solid 3-5" for a good part of the southern 2/3rds of the area. This could have a small to moderate chance of being the first plowable/shovelable snow for the metro and points south if all the pieces line up. Almost complete model agreement for a solid 2-3"... 3 to 5" still probably just out of reach let alone 7 that Friv's talking about but certainly a nice little low to mid end advisory worthy event for sure.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 6:34:10 GMT -6
This system reminds me a lot of the Christmas Eve snowfall back in 2010 or 2011 when it wasn't originally slated to be much until last minute when it turned into a solid 3-5" for a good part of the southern 2/3rds of the area. This could have a small to moderate chance of being the first plowable/shovelable snow for the metro and points south if all the pieces line up. Almost complete model agreement for a solid 2-3"... 3 to 5" still probably just out of reach let alone 7 that Friv's talking about but certainly a nice little low to mid end advisory worthy event for sure. If the energy energy barreling ! BACKSIDE ! through that trough consolidate a little bit in the front end of the vorticity sharpen cool see even better lift right up 44. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 11, 2018 6:36:22 GMT -6
So I’m horrible at reading the models. Do the latest models really show what I’m thinking?! Can someone please give me the timing on start? I read something that says Sunday night but then the NOAA shows Monday..? Can anyone clarify?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 6:36:39 GMT -6
And even though this is a daytime event the sun angle this time of year is already very low and the ground has cooled off substantially.
Any talk of a accumulation being hampered by that is freaking bogus the current solar equivalent is like late January we are good to go in this one.
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