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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 21:08:16 GMT -6
If the nam and hires nam are correct you're going to need plows and salt tilawn. That inch or less will be added to a bit. Already planned to load both trucks up with the snow equipment in the morning. Franklin county just got dry slotted.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2018 21:08:47 GMT -6
00z rgem is sweet...gets the band to me so you know the northern and western counties are happy.
Will be interesting to see if the models are broadbrushing too much. I anticipate some narrow bands instead of a congealed shield.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 13, 2018 21:08:57 GMT -6
Already planned to load both trucks up with the snow equipment in the morning. Franklin county just got dry slotted. BOOK IT!! 😂🤣 |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 13, 2018 21:09:22 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂 Ya, this wil forever be the "Twig-n-Berries" storm....lmao. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 13, 2018 21:11:10 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂 Ya, this wil forever be the "Twig-n-Berries" storm....lmao. You made me snort.  |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 21:14:56 GMT -6
0z ICON looks amazing, shifted some northwest as well. Every model that has come in tonight now bullseyes the metro and even St Charles county - great adjustments!
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 13, 2018 21:15:48 GMT -6
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Sat/Sun system |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 21:20:52 GMT -6
I swear I better not be sitting here watching you folks up north get pounded while I'm dry slotted. Just sayin.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 21:21:34 GMT -6
It would be smart for NWS to upgrade the watch for the metro for this evening news. Most people are only talking about 1-2” right now. The only model even close to their forecast is the GFS . Everything else is much greater. Just a thought. I would start talking it more than they currently are.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 21:23:31 GMT -6
Unfortunately you might be...every model that has come out tonight develops a distinct dry slot south and east .
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 21:24:05 GMT -6
Here is the Cobb method output from the 0Z NAM.
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
181115/0100Z 25 03006KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/0200Z 26 03009KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/0300Z 27 03009KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/0400Z 28 04007KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/0500Z 29 04007KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
181115/0600Z 30 02007KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/0700Z 31 01008KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 12:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
181115/0800Z 32 01008KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 12:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
181115/0900Z 33 01009KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 11:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0
181115/1000Z 34 01009KT 28.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 12:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
181115/1100Z 35 01008KT 28.7F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 12:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0
181115/1200Z 36 01007KT 28.8F SNOW 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 12:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/1300Z 37 36006KT 29.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 12:1| 10.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88 100| 0| 0
181115/1400Z 38 35006KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 12:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0
181115/1500Z 39 34006KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0
181115/1600Z 40 33007KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95 100| 0| 0
181115/1700Z 41 32007KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 12:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0
181115/1800Z 42 31007KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 12:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/1900Z 43 30007KT 31.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05 100| 0| 0
181115/2000Z 44 30007KT 31.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 12:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0
181115/2100Z 45 29007KT 32.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0
181115/2200Z 46 27005KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0
181115/2300Z 47 26005KT 32.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0
181116/0000Z 48 25005KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 0| 0| 0
============================================================================================================================
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 21:26:12 GMT -6
Does that say 13" bdgwx? Holy cow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2018 21:32:34 GMT -6
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Sat/Sun system Its straight out of last year's playbook. Strung out, sheared mess. Probably a coating to 2 inches somewhere in the midwest riding the artic front. Still a lot of events for one month though. |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 21:32:43 GMT -6
Here is the Cobb method output from the 0Z NAM. That's just crazy talk.
Actually, I hadn't looked at a weather model in 2 years...until tonight. When was our last wrapped-up, stacked winter storm?
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 21:34:04 GMT -6
Does that say 13" bdgwx? Holy cow Yes. If you get the BBQ grill lit up I'll bring the beef. None of that lean junk either. It's going to be fat and juicy. |
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 13, 2018 21:34:14 GMT -6
That actually nails Troy too. I'm okay with those solutions coming in  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 13, 2018 21:34:20 GMT -6
I guess nobody wants to talk about the Sat/Sun system yet.... |
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jeeper
Wishcaster
Rosewood Heights, IL
Posts: 183 
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Post by jeeper on Nov 13, 2018 21:34:39 GMT -6
What I'd give to see Charlie kick Lucy when she pulls the ball away yet again...come on, you know I'm right... |
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 21:36:06 GMT -6
I'm telling you people are going to freak out in the morning- NWS better move quick -Not even a WWA for metro yet....Stores will be jammed with milk and bread going off shelves quick!
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 21:37:00 GMT -6
Here's the crappy part. I'm in Atlanta, and not sure if I'm going to be able to fly home tomorrow night or if I'll have to wait until sometime Thursday...which might not even be able to happen because it'll be pouring snow. So I'll miss out on seeing the snow, and I'll miss out on coming home because of it.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 13, 2018 21:37:46 GMT -6
Does that say 13" bdgwx? Holy cow Yes. If you get the BBQ grill lit up I'll bring the beef. None of that lean junk either. It's going to be fat and juicy. Grilled some filets last night, first snow tradition for years. Not sure where to upgrade from there...always willing to try |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 21:39:09 GMT -6
I'm telling you people are going to freak out in the morning- NWS better move quick -Not even a WWA for metro yet....Stores will be jammed with milk and bread going off shelves quick! Ya when I was at the gym earlier many of the local stations only had a few inches for the metro. If the NAM is correct, the stores will be a mad house tomorrow |
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 21:40:27 GMT -6
I was heading to bed until the NAM struck gold...Now i don't think I can...I may have thrown my shovel away....
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 21:42:02 GMT -6
You know the Euro is going to come in with his best Morgan Freeman voice, "Now, now, boys. Let's rein it in a little bit."
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beth930
Weather Weenie
Highway K and Mexico-O'Fallon MO
Posts: 34 
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Post by beth930 on Nov 13, 2018 21:42:45 GMT -6
It’s been so long since there has been anything exciting to talk about! I was surprised I remembered my login in. Having said that, trying not to get too excited. I don’t remember ever getting a snow day before Thanksgiving.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2018 21:43:40 GMT -6
Even gfs although it can focus these bands well it is nw too. We need the watch now.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 21:43:47 GMT -6
i am interested in the sat sun system. frontal precip...prolly air snow. was actually more interested in it than the thursday system until today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 21:44:31 GMT -6
GFS isn't NAM levels of beefy, but still looks really good with its 500 low track
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 21:45:14 GMT -6
Gfs. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 21:50:16 GMT -6
QPF be damned that's a good run in regards to putting the metro more in the bullseye. It puts the metro square in the "golden" pivot zone much like the NAM |
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