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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 14, 2018 4:19:25 GMT -6
Happy winter weather preparedness day to you all in Missouri! How appropriate.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 14, 2018 4:26:57 GMT -6
500mb vort max...120 miles on the cold side of track. 850mb low...90 miles to the cold side. Heavy snow almost never falls to the East or South of the 850. Heavy snow placement is usually between the -3 and - 5ﾟC 850 temperature. Heavy snow typically forms just North of the Apex of a 700 millibar dry slot. Isn't it 150nm from 500mb vort? |
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Post by scmhack on Nov 14, 2018 5:17:35 GMT -6
Its a good thing I commute in off traffic hours and have a Suburban. Tomorrow morning is gonna suck.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 5:19:51 GMT -6
Its a good thing I commute in off traffic hours and have a Suburban. Tomorrow morning is gonna suck. Yea same here. Perryville to Festus isn't bad at 5:30 AM. Also glad I bought a new (older but new to me) truck a couple weeks ago! |
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Post by scmhack on Nov 14, 2018 5:22:45 GMT -6
Its a good thing I commute in off traffic hours and have a Suburban. Tomorrow morning is gonna suck. Yea same here. Perryville to Festus isn't bad at 5:30 AM. Also glad I bought a new (older but new to me) truck a couple weeks ago! Oh yeah my truck isn't new. Its an old 97 Suburban (vs my 2014 Impala). and South City to North County at 430-5am. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 5:29:00 GMT -6
Jeffco now a advisory not the watch😢did the low move already?
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 5:41:12 GMT -6
And why is the low coming out of Texas now? it was way east of there last night on ch 2?
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 14, 2018 5:46:07 GMT -6
Well, Osage Beach may see an inch or two now. I am going to be about twenty miles west of that. Please, please, let me at least see some flakes!
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 14, 2018 5:47:39 GMT -6
And why is the low coming out of Texas now? it was way east of there last night on ch 2? It's the upper level low coming out of Texas. |
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Post by Farmtown WX on Nov 14, 2018 5:47:59 GMT -6
Jeffco now a advisory not the watch😢did the low move already? WWA is right under a Winter Storm Warning. That’s an upgrade in advisories from last night. Everything looks on track. |
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Post by bororug on Nov 14, 2018 5:57:06 GMT -6
Can see the cloud deck moving from my southeast. Pretty cool. Looking at the radar this thing may start producing some snow a little earlier than I had previously thought. Temp here is 15 degrees
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Post by scmhack on Nov 14, 2018 5:57:54 GMT -6
For those still interested. There is still a chat room. In IRC in on the Quakenet. the room is stlweather Why don't we create a discord channel for that instead of using IRC. Discord saves conversations so people can scroll through the thoughts and it leaves open voice chat options as well. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 5:58:19 GMT -6
But Jeffco was under a watch last evening! I just wondered what changed?
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 14, 2018 6:01:14 GMT -6
Here are the top 10 November snowstorms at KSTL:
1951/11/06 10.3
1980/11/27 7.7
1975/11/26 7.6
1929/11/28 6.5
1926/11/17 6.3
1977/11/27 6.3
1932/11/15 5.3
1941/11/23 5.3
1972/11/19 5.2
1961/11/18 4.7
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 14, 2018 6:08:45 GMT -6
For those still interested. There is still a chat room. In IRC in on the Quakenet. the room is stlweather Why don't we create a discord channel for that instead of using IRC. Discord saves conversations so people can scroll through the thoughts and it leaves open voice chat options as well. Or slack... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 14, 2018 6:12:32 GMT -6
6z Euro looks solid. 4-6 looks good..maybe more.
RAP and HRRR want the snow to move in around 9-10pmish
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2018 6:20:03 GMT -6
500mb vort max...120 miles on the cold side of track. 850mb low...90 miles to the cold side. Heavy snow almost never falls to the East or South of the 850. Heavy snow placement is usually between the -3 and - 5ﾟC 850 temperature. Heavy snow typically forms just North of the Apex of a 700 millibar dry slot. Isn't it 150nm from 500mb vort? As a matter of fact... you are correct. That is whawt I get for driving and texting  |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 14, 2018 6:20:46 GMT -6
What are the chances of this moving more one way then the other?
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 14, 2018 6:29:02 GMT -6
about 50%, and there's only a 10% chance of that.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 6:31:10 GMT -6
Tilawn, who knows! I still have figured out why my county went from a watch to advisory overnight! I know lots of snow but the low must have be moving more east! Lucy has some splaining to do!
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 6:31:34 GMT -6
about 50%, and there's only a 10% chance of that. "60% of the time... it works every time!" |
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Post by REB on Nov 14, 2018 6:34:10 GMT -6
Chris , you need some fingerless gloves to handle your tech on these outside shoots. Put some silk glove liners underneath and you won’t freeze. Works for me every winter in Yellowstone for picture taking.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 6:34:30 GMT -6
So are we throwing out the hi-res? I can’t discount it in my head just because we’ve been burned so many times like that.
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Post by packrat on Nov 14, 2018 6:46:50 GMT -6
But Jeffco was under a watch last evening! I just wondered what changed? The advisory is actually a step up from the watch not down. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2018 6:47:48 GMT -6
Not throwing it out...using the consensus tracks for 500 and 850...with a bias towards experience (more northwest for whiplash) but not as far as the hires.
That is kind of why I'm covering the metro with 4-8...so its one range for entire metro.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 6:49:33 GMT -6
Packrat, but the inches of snow have diminished compared to what’s forecasted for Illinois! That’s why I wondered if the low is more east!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2018 6:51:27 GMT -6
Models still on track and with this coming in even quicker...later tonight...the airmass has less time to modify and snow should be the dominant p-type pretty much area wide unless the dry slot comes in and produces drizzle. NWS must be leaning towards the ensemble output that is a bit SE of operational runs. Has anyone looked at the SREF output lately?
I would expect an upgrade to a WSW for the metro and pretty much anyone E of the river by the next update.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2018 6:58:34 GMT -6
Brtn, winter storm warning is up for Illinois metro counties already
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 7:00:03 GMT -6
Brtn, winter storm warning is up for Illinois metro counties already Pretty sure he is referring to the remainder of the eastern counties in the CWA. With the exception of the NW counties I would expect the WSW to expand through the rest of the CWA. EDIT: The addition of PAH too. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 14, 2018 7:01:55 GMT -6
Models still on track and with this coming in even quicker...later tonight...the airmass has less time to modify and snow should be the dominant p-type pretty much area wide unless the dry slot comes in and produces drizzle. NWS must be leaning towards the ensemble output that is a bit SE of operational runs. Has anyone looked at the SREF output lately? I would expect an upgrade to a WSW for the metro and pretty much anyone E of the river by the next update. Not too impressive with the mean, but some members higher. |
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