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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 7:03:01 GMT -6
Models still on track and with this coming in even quicker...later tonight...the airmass has less time to modify and snow should be the dominant p-type pretty much area wide unless the dry slot comes in and produces drizzle. NWS must be leaning towards the ensemble output that is a bit SE of operational runs. Has anyone looked at the SREF output lately? I would expect an upgrade to a WSW for the metro and pretty much anyone E of the river by the next update. SREF mean has gone from 1.7 to 2.4 to 3.6 to 5.5 last 4 runs. Several members at 10”. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 7:05:05 GMT -6
Its game day y'all! Let's do this.
I think my heaviest and most meaningful snow down here will occur within the first 6 hours of the event. The models show that really intense push of heavy snow at the onset. Should be fun. The extent of the dry slot is unknown, but hopefully I can keep accumulating snow throughout. I'll be sure and report the intensity of the snow as myself and a few others will be the first ones to get it this time around.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Nov 14, 2018 7:05:14 GMT -6
That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier.
Daily records for the month of November
I remember it too. My uncle had a snowmobile (it did snow more back then!) and brought it to my grandparents for Thanksgiving. We all lived in High Ridge. One of my favorite memories. |
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455
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Post by luvhockey on Nov 14, 2018 7:17:53 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂 Someone pretty please post a pic. I missed it |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2018 7:20:20 GMT -6
6z ggem and rgem are the furthest north and west.
I expect a slight retreat southeast at 12z.
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Nov 14, 2018 7:23:32 GMT -6
6z ggem and rgem are the furthest north and west. I expect a slight retreat southeast at 12z. Starting to worry. Point forecasts unchanged and now hearing models are shifting away... Here comes the rug. |
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Nov 14, 2018 7:24:06 GMT -6
Holy board posts...more pages than I can get through since I was able to get on last night. Depending on temps today, wouldn't this technically be a snow on snow event in November? I got an inch still in my yard for the most part. Got a laugh out of my son asking if this winter was going to be like the winters when I was growing up based on my stories. I told him we can only hope!
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40
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Post by kkwhit on Nov 14, 2018 7:24:38 GMT -6
Flying home from Columbus OH tonight. Supposed to land at 8. Hope it’s a quick drive back to Ballwin and then settle in and watch it come down!
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 7:30:42 GMT -6
12z HRRR running. Love that 6 hour incremental runs now go to 36 hours.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 7:34:51 GMT -6
St Louis National Weather Service has The Sweet Spot about 10 to 15 miles further east than what I thought yesterday. Just hope they don't move it any farther. I've seen some model runs that have st. Clair County and Monroe County getting dry slotted something fierce
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 7:36:56 GMT -6
12z HRRR running. Love that 6 hour incremental runs now go to 36 hours. 12Z HRRR loves the metro east this run, solid 6-8 for Waterloo to Belleville down to almost Sparta region |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 7:38:16 GMT -6
St Louis National Weather Service has The Sweet Spot about 10 to 15 miles further east than what I thought yesterday. Just hope they don't move it any farther. I've seen some model runs that have st. Clair County and Monroe County getting dry slotted something fierce Still think we're fine and the models have gone too far west, slowly seeing the slight eastward adjustment with the convective/meso models now, hopefully will see it with the 12Z just a very slight shift will do. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 7:38:59 GMT -6
HRRR has snow starting around 8 in St. Clair county with temps at 29. Can't really ask for a better starting scenario for Nov. 14.
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 14, 2018 7:39:19 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 7:40:05 GMT -6
HRRR almost stops a northerly movement for a few hours and goes East to West
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Post by perryville on Nov 14, 2018 7:40:58 GMT -6
Snow reaching the ground in northern Arkansas?
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Post by perryville on Nov 14, 2018 7:45:29 GMT -6
Its game day y'all! Let's do this. I think my heaviest and most meaningful snow down here will occur within the first 6 hours of the event. The models show that really intense push of heavy snow at the onset. Should be fun. The extent of the dry slot is unknown, but hopefully I can keep accumulating snow throughout. I'll be sure and report the intensity of the snow as myself and a few others will be the first ones to get it this time around. Can we avoid the "sleet monster"? It's been many years where it has snowed with no sleet or mixing in the land where "no one lives".  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 7:45:56 GMT -6
HRRR is money. Now let's hope NAM can stay on track and Hi-res stops going so far northwest.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 7:46:53 GMT -6
Its game day y'all! Let's do this. I think my heaviest and most meaningful snow down here will occur within the first 6 hours of the event. The models show that really intense push of heavy snow at the onset. Should be fun. The extent of the dry slot is unknown, but hopefully I can keep accumulating snow throughout. I'll be sure and report the intensity of the snow as myself and a few others will be the first ones to get it this time around. Can we avoid the "sleet monster"? It's been many years where it has snowed with no sleet or mixing in the land where "no one lives". The sleet monster is in full hibernation this go-round (maybe he doesn't wake up until December?). All dynamics support very heavy snow. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 7:47:03 GMT -6
Snow reaching the ground in northern Arkansas? Far as I can tell... No. But seeing even virga this early into northern Arkansas/Southern Missouri is assuring. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 7:47:40 GMT -6
NAM is running.
Looks slightly east so far up to hour 9.
Keep in mind a slight eastward shift would be good news for the immediate metro and metro east, less so farther west.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 7:48:33 GMT -6
Snow reaching the ground in northern Arkansas? Far as I can tell... No. But seeing even virga this early into northern Arkansas/Southern Missouri is assuring. Several obs around Pine Bluff, AR are reporting light snow. |
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Nov 14, 2018 7:49:17 GMT -6
Well I suppose today is as good as any for me to re-emerge from hibernation. 😃
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2018 7:58:08 GMT -6
St.Louis st.chuck and Jeff co need a warning all models show 4 to 8 inches
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 8:02:38 GMT -6
AR DOT Pine Bluff Traffic Cams show light snow falling/sticking.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:03:22 GMT -6
12Z NAM less juicy.
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Post by scmhack on Nov 14, 2018 8:04:52 GMT -6
I'm not gonna hold any of the models outside of the RAP and HRRR to anything right now because we are too close to the event now. |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 14, 2018 8:06:19 GMT -6
Holy board posts...more pages than I can get through since I was able to get on last night. Depending on temps today, wouldn't this technically be a snow on snow event in November? I got an inch still in my yard for the most part. Got a laugh out of my son asking if this winter was going to be like the winters when I was growing up based on my stories. I told him we can only hope! Snow-on-snow is pretty subjective. I personally use the rule 4"+ on top of a 2"+ depth as a go-by when I look at the statistics. It's been a while since I've done this, but I'm pretty you have to go back to the 1990's to find the last occurrence of it. So yeah, snow-on-snow is a very rare thing in St. Louis. |
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Post by easnowman on Nov 14, 2018 8:06:59 GMT -6
Today is the day that the refresh button gets a workout!! After reading 30+ pages in this thread it sure is great to be back on this blog for what I hope is an eventful winter, especially starting this early and before thanksgiving!! Heres to a snowstorm filled winter!! Happy model watching all.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:07:01 GMT -6
Less Juicy, but still good for a solid 4-6" with lollipops up to 8 both east and northwest of town.
So not a 'bust' but more like a return to realism
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