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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:12:20 GMT -6
Troy, MO would really love the NAM, lollipop of 9" there.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 14, 2018 8:15:03 GMT -6
I don't think anyone will complain if we all cash in with a solid 4-6 inch snowfall. Especially in the middle of November. Looks like a solid 4-5" IMBY
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:15:25 GMT -6
3KM farther east with the pivot area almost into the immediate metro, but still just west of.
also less juicy like it's 12KM counterpart, but the placement is similar if not slightly farther south and east but only by like 10-15 miles.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:18:11 GMT -6
What a joke, 3KM says my house get's just an inch, maybe 1.5" while St. Charles county cashes in with 8-10"...  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:21:59 GMT -6
So much for a southeast trend looks like everything is generally trending northwest more so the metro east and downtown now have to face the dryslot.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 14, 2018 8:22:08 GMT -6
I'm thinking 1-3" here in St. Peters, 2-4" at the airport, and 3-6" on the south side of the metro and into Illinois with locally higher amounts possible. Actually the placement of the winter storm warning looks about right to me; at least right now. I'm not sure how widespread the 6"+ totals will be, but it does seem like the highest odds are on the east side of the river this go-around.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 8:24:03 GMT -6
I love watching this board! lol
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Nov 14, 2018 8:26:12 GMT -6
What a joke, 3KM says my house get's just an inch, maybe 1.5" while St. Charles county cashes in with 8-10"... Keep up that dirty talk. St Chuck needs some love! |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 8:33:44 GMT -6
What a joke, 3KM says my house get's just an inch, maybe 1.5" while St. Charles county cashes in with 8-10"... Told you. The dry slot is coming. Right through Monroe and st. Clair County. Jefferson County too. Looks so familiar |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 14, 2018 8:36:34 GMT -6
The track of the storm is somewhat unusual. The low gets tugged northeast and almost due north only to make an immediate 90 degree turn to the east. Actually the turn is even sharper on the NAM with the dominant low at 850mb going very near the metro area only to reconsolidate along the IL/KY/IN border area. The pivot may be crucial concerning where the jackpot is going to be. The higher amounts being shown on the NAM for the western suburbs is a low confidence call in my opinion.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 8:37:49 GMT -6
I don't think we will know the jackpot until its basically happening. Good news is we should just about all see our most significant snow in almost 4 years. I'll be happy with 3", anything more is a bonus.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 8:44:43 GMT -6
The dry slotted country counties will probably have to deal with freezing drizzle
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 8:52:24 GMT -6
What a joke, 3KM says my house get's just an inch, maybe 1.5" while St. Charles county cashes in with 8-10"... conceptually i would go with the opposite of that....1.5 in stc county to 6 to 8 to the se of that. still liking 1 to 3 imby with a very tight gradient to 4 plus in stl county and 6 plus in swil. i dont really see any reason to flip flop from that until i see a more western track verify as the upper level low makes the turn. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Nov 14, 2018 8:56:38 GMT -6
I personally wouldn’t be offended if St. Chuck misses out and most of the storm stays on the other side of the Missouri River!
I love the snow when I am not scheduled to work, unfortunately my shift drew the short straw!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2018 8:58:08 GMT -6
I’m alittle worried about my drive from Edwardsville to Belleville later after my evening class tonight. The class ends around 8 and that looks like when the snow will begin to fall
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 8:59:19 GMT -6
12Z RGEM seems to keep the dream alive however... No QPF maps available yet, but the radar maps look solid. Earlier start time too, closer to 6PM with the heaviest between 10-11PM through 3-4AM.
bet the RGEM only looks better cause I put my rose colored glasses on which I need for migraine prevention/light sensitivity.  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 8:59:58 GMT -6
my college daughter is flying to florida at 4 pm tomorrow. im more concerned with her getting to the airport than i am with the flight....the heavy wet hamster snow should be winding down by then as we transition to a lighter variety.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2018 9:01:14 GMT -6
Looks like it's just starting its turn north
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 14, 2018 9:01:48 GMT -6
I'm driving from Davenport back home today. I'll probably leave by noon. I should be home before the snow starts, but I'll be off the grid for most of the day. I'll definitely be feeding my obsession as I take breaks for gas and snacks so keep the posts coming.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 9:08:03 GMT -6
I know a lot have been asking about models and access to them. Is the Weather Wall at the PSU site still worth visiting? I still use it and there is plenty of data there. I am curious as to what others here think of that site.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 9:16:48 GMT -6
I'm hoping it can stay tighter for longer and not fly open. This would allow the continuation of a second maxima down in my neck of the woods.
At this point I pretty well stick to the HRRR. Things look good so far.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 9:19:59 GMT -6
I'm hoping it can stay tighter for longer and not fly open. This would allow the continuation of a second maxima down in my neck of the woods. At this point I pretty well stick to the HRRR. Things look good so far. 500MB stays a bowling ball through *about 30 hours... I think you are good. EDIT:*about |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 9:35:19 GMT -6
12Z GFS is rolling
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 9:36:20 GMT -6
I do not like the way things are trending on HRRR. Probably just the what I'm used to the last couple years though and I am just being negative.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 9:39:52 GMT -6
The big moisture push just seems to be further east. That seems to be the trend
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 9:53:38 GMT -6
Here comes Lucy about to lift that football...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 9:55:25 GMT -6
oh i think swil will still get a pretty good snow.
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Post by scmhack on Nov 14, 2018 9:56:14 GMT -6
So anxious to call it a bust when it hasn't even started. Wow. Things seem to look on track to me still
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 9:57:15 GMT -6
boy im so glad i stayed with 1 to 3 imby.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2018 9:57:30 GMT -6
I've just rescheduled the doctor appointment I had for 830 tomorrow. I may need to kick Lucy's butt
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