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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2018 9:58:19 GMT -6
As the models continue to crank back on QPF numbers, wondering if there will be a 'flash sale' on drying cloths after all.
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 14, 2018 9:59:03 GMT -6
Exactly. You would think the models have burned us three years straight the way people are acting.
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Mirror Mirror
Wishcaster
Wentzville, MO
Posts: 161 
Snowfall Events: 2013-14 - Est. Total 25.8"
2014-15 - Est. Total 14.5"
2015-18 - Did it snow?
2018-19 - 22.2" (so far)
Jan 13 2019 - 12.0"
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Post by Mirror Mirror on Nov 14, 2018 9:59:58 GMT -6
I personally wouldn’t be offended if St. Chuck misses out and most of the storm stays on the other side of the Missouri River! I love the snow when I am not scheduled to work, unfortunately my shift drew the short straw! Shhh, we will have no more of that missing out talk about St Charles County! Wentzville will take what you don't want, just put the donut hole right over you |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 14, 2018 10:01:02 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 10:04:26 GMT -6
09z SREF Plumes did go up about a half an inch to 5.5" for a mean. One member at 13". This for Belleville.
Airport mean is at 4".
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Nov 14, 2018 10:06:31 GMT -6
The classic pre-storm panic
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 10:07:33 GMT -6
i think in reality, swil is still on the table, but a microrazor sharp demarcation on the western fringes. i dont think the path of the vortex is going to change but i do think the focus of the moisture will stay east than last nights progs. so conceptually no real change from earlier thinking and wsw is well placed. i do wonder if western extent of wwa might be overdone.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2018 10:11:35 GMT -6
12z NAM looks good...nice track of the 500mb system. The only concerning thing is that the dryslot tries to wrap back to the river. Otherwise everything still looks like a go for a major snowstorm across much of the area.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2018 10:14:09 GMT -6
My phone just buzzwd...STL upgraded to warning.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2018 10:15:28 GMT -6
i think the forward speed is progged just a bit quicker so for swil, im not convinced we will see 10 plus inches anywhere...and the faster speed may circumvent the moisture from wrapping so far to the west. but i do agree this is still a significant storm for the area.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2018 10:15:58 GMT -6
Radar looks a lot more robust than hrrr is putting out currently.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 14, 2018 10:17:04 GMT -6
Steady as she goes.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 10:20:27 GMT -6
Pretty good stack on the GFS... Almost nominal track of all three lows (500, 700 and 850).
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2018 10:24:52 GMT -6
The classic pre-storm panic Definitely following the pattern spelled out years ago. |
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Nov 14, 2018 10:29:22 GMT -6
My phone just buzzwd...STL upgraded to warning. that’s a good sign. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2018 10:30:49 GMT -6
My phone just buzzwd...STL upgraded to warning. that’s a good sign. The graphic hasn't updated yet and point forecasts still show advisory. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 14, 2018 10:32:37 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 14, 2018 10:37:26 GMT -6
What is the timing on this? This evening start time?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 10:38:50 GMT -6
Models have backed off some with QPF, but we are still in line for a good snowstorm. Perhaps not the "epic" and "historic" we wanted but I'm all good.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 14, 2018 10:39:36 GMT -6
WPC has shifted the bullseye to a hair North East Mount Vernon Illinois.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2018 10:41:52 GMT -6
What is a good site to go and see weather observations? Anything with a map that you can just click and read? The Fox2 interactive radar used to be my source but now when I select current conditions it just shows the little obs. but there's no info when I click it.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Nov 14, 2018 10:42:19 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2018 10:42:22 GMT -6
NWS upgrading to warning... upping totals to 5-7
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2018 10:42:57 GMT -6
Boom... there it is...
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 14, 2018 10:44:39 GMT -6
NWS upgrading to warning... upping totals to 5-7 How far west do the warnings go? |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 14, 2018 10:46:13 GMT -6
Sure sounds like the nws just ripped that drying cloth out of wxguy's hand.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 14, 2018 10:47:46 GMT -6
NWS upgrading to warning... upping totals to 5-7 How far west do the warnings go? Saint Louis and Saint Charles counties |
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Nov 14, 2018 10:48:34 GMT -6
How far west do the warnings go? Saint Louis and Saint Charles counties HRRR 15z looks a solid snow almost as far west as COU now. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Nov 14, 2018 10:48:41 GMT -6
Except for down here where nobody lives .....
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 14, 2018 10:49:53 GMT -6
How far west do the warnings go? Saint Louis and Saint Charles counties Rats! So close, but still think we're going to get decent snow in eastern Franklin county. |
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