|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2019 23:16:39 GMT -6
Back to a drizzly snow...weird.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2019 23:17:45 GMT -6
We have 7" But compaction city now. I don't care tho. Love it. The short term models really go ham but are warm near the surface. They are notoriously Warn duirnally. We'll see. That yellow that gave you a good inch+ seems to be about right with what you have there and me, your 7 to my 5.7ish. Crazy what those little bursts do to the totals. I'm also measuring on a deck that's 50ft off the ground. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2019 23:18:23 GMT -6
Chris, help me understand...I've been watching the zone forecast for St. Charles. At one point around 3 today, it said, total snow accumulation of 15 to 17 inches. Then this evening, it said total snow accumulation 13 to 14 inches. Now, it says total snow accumulation of 10 inches. Is this flawed, or is the accumulations being cut back, or is it computer generated? Can you clarify? I've always assumed that forecast total didn't account for what's already fallen...maybe Chris or an NWS met can clarify that? That's my thinking as well. It looks like that update was made 10:21 pm tonight. Melissa's disco update an hour earlier suggested my area would be in the 12 to 14 inch range. |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 11, 2019 23:18:38 GMT -6
My brother lives there. He and his wife love it. I remembered that you had told me that, but figured that was better coming from you. I like it too, except, now that the kids are older, I wish I had a 5 acre lot. My kids grow up, move out, and buy big homes on 5 acre lots in Foristell, and I'm jealous. That's funny. We have 4 acres now, but I talk about moving to a house in a nice little subdivision closer to work once the kids are grown and gone. Nice short driveway, people can park in the street at Thanksgiving instead of the yard (soggy or not), 30 minutes to mow instead of 2+ hours. But...then I figure I'll hate all of the noise and want to move back out here where it's quiet. |
|
blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117 
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
-------------------
|
Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 23:19:10 GMT -6
8.5" in South County at 11pm. Just had a brief snow break but its picking back up again. It looks like Tesson Ferry at Susan Hills has been unsnarled- we'll see if its still like that in the morning though
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2019 23:20:22 GMT -6
zone forecasts have been all over the place today..mine says 11-14...it was 8-11 2 hrs ago
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 11, 2019 23:21:25 GMT -6
Just got ack in from sweeping the boat off again. I had to wait until the mother lode slowed down. Man, it was coming down. I have 6.125" in De Soto. Could be some compaction. Temp 30*.
|
|
philbilly
Weather Weenie
Wentzville, MO
Posts: 47
Snowfall Events: To much snow, bring on Summer!
|
Post by philbilly on Jan 11, 2019 23:22:00 GMT -6
7.5" in Wentzville, cleaned off half my board at 6". Cleaned side 1.5" and uncleaned 7.5". I guess no compaction yet? More of a warmer day time thing tomorrow?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2019 23:27:28 GMT -6
Chris, help me understand...I've been watching the zone forecast for St. Charles. At one point around 3 today, it said, total snow accumulation of 15 to 17 inches. Then this evening, it said total snow accumulation 13 to 14 inches. Now, it says total snow accumulation of 10 inches. Is this flawed, or is the accumulations being cut back, or is it computer generated? Can you clarify? I've always assumed that forecast total didn't account for what's already fallen...maybe Chris or an NWS met can clarify that? They will usually either break it out and say "additional accumulation" or they will say "Total Storm Accumulation" The zones are automated and can sometimes churn out some wild numbers because of how the the hourly snowfall is input on their end. I personally hate that... because it causes the constantly adjusting totals that are super confusing to the public. If you look at their graphic...they have never explicitly forecast more than 12" I believe. |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 11, 2019 23:28:44 GMT -6
Gap in radar filling back in. It looks like I'll hold onto the southern edge of the precip through the night.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2019 23:30:46 GMT -6
The 04Z RAP CONTINUES THE REALLY WET TREND. BUT WILL IT STAY SNOW. WE'LL SEE  |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2019 23:32:42 GMT -6
zone forecasts have been all over the place today..mine says 11-14...it was 8-11 2 hrs ago and it really looks like the heaviest axis of snow will shift to north of 70 overnight so go figure. So, I checked the GFS. Remarkable over the period in the extended to the fantasy range. First of all this week, I don't trust it....we should probably see what other models have mid week as a cold front crashes through the area. Then next weekend, that is still very much on the table with another southern track storm system. That one we want to keep an eye on. It has everything from rain to heavy snow and winds. Same for late the following week. Very progressive pattern, with temp swings - but storms get wound up. Doesn't really add up given the fast flow, but then again, neither did today's storm...a rather benign inverted trough that scooped up a lot of moisture and decided to take its time to move through. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2019 23:38:01 GMT -6
The 04Z RAP CONTINUES THE REALLY WET TREND. BUT WILL IT STAY SNOW. WE'LL SEE Well after looking at the rap Soundings. The type product is clearly based on surface temps |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2019 23:40:40 GMT -6
I've always assumed that forecast total didn't account for what's already fallen...maybe Chris or an NWS met can clarify that? They will usually either break it out and say "additional accumulation" or they will say "Total Storm Accumulation" The zones are automated and can sometimes churn out some wild numbers because of how the the hourly snowfall is input on their end. I personally hate that... because it causes the constantly adjusting totals that are super confusing to the public. If you look at their graphic...they have never explicitly forecast more than 12" I believe. On the graphic, the highest color contour was 12, and I don't recall ever seeing anything more. Regarding the verbiage, they did say additional accumulations of 4 inches tonight, additional accumulations of 4 inches tomorrow, additional accumulations of less than half inch tomorrow night, total storm accumulation 10 inches. I personally don't like the "additional accumulations" verbiage, because then that begs the question as of what time? When it was updated? Do we go by the update time? I like the total storm accumulation because that's useful information at a glance, and tells me whether the grand total is being revised up or down. So, what you're saying, is go by the graphic. Thanks for the clarification. I thought the clickpoint forecasts were automated, so I didn't trust them as much as I trusted the zone forecasts and I thought the zone forecasts required human intervention/interpretation, which made me trust them more. Thanks for the clarification. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Jan 11, 2019 23:42:00 GMT -6
|
|
BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
|
Post by BDS on Jan 11, 2019 23:43:22 GMT -6
zone forecasts have been all over the place today..mine says 11-14...it was 8-11 2 hrs ago They've been all over indeed. Kind of nuts actually. Would almost say they should update it LESS. My area (Columbia), latest text product at 11:09 says total accumulation of 10-12 inches, St. Louis, 11-14. At 10:21, my area said 9 inches, St. Louis 8-10 At 8:36, my area said 9 inches, St. Louis 9-11 At 8:06, my area said 10-11 inches, St. Louis 10-13 At 4:51, my area said 11-12 inches, St. Louis 12-13. At 3:08, my area said 13-14 inches, St. Louis 14-16 inches. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2019 23:44:17 GMT -6
What do the rap soundings suggest?
|
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 11, 2019 23:47:10 GMT -6
Getting some dippin dot stuff mixing in, and where I cleared some sidewalk earlier the new stuff is more slushy.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2019 23:49:29 GMT -6
What do the rap soundings suggest? The actual soundings keep things snow almost to Kfam the entire event. The near surface temps warm up to 33/34 during the duirnally driven warmth. It suggests we stay snow but accumulations will be rough between 10-3pm tomorrow. Then a better chance at a few more inches on the backend in the evening |
|
|
|
Post by rb1108 on Jan 11, 2019 23:58:17 GMT -6
Meso out for heavy snow overnight. Location indicated is north of STL but some areas look to be included in the graphic, such as to the west, maybe union even
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2019 0:02:11 GMT -6
A little over 9" here in Wildwood now.
|
|
|
|
Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jan 12, 2019 0:04:00 GMT -6
St.Louis Zoo is officially closed tomorrow. Snow day for me!
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 12, 2019 0:05:06 GMT -6
Just measured 6.75” on my patio in Waterloo.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2019 0:05:07 GMT -6
Some big ole flakes now.
Just moderate tho
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2019 0:08:06 GMT -6
M7.1" in Harvester as of 12am.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:08:59 GMT -6
St.Louis Zoo is officially closed tomorrow. Snow day for me! They're going to feed me tomorrow, aren't they? |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:10:50 GMT -6
Can't see anything falling. wondering if I should do one more measurement.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:12:02 GMT -6
What do the rap soundings suggest? The actual soundings keep things snow almost to Kfam the entire event. The near surface temps warm up to 33/34 during the duirnally driven warmth. It suggests we stay snow but accumulations will be rough between 10-3pm tomorrow. Then a better chance at a few more inches on the backend in the evening Thank you sir |
|
|
|
Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jan 12, 2019 0:14:05 GMT -6
St.Louis Zoo is officially closed tomorrow. Snow day for me! They're going to feed me tomorrow, aren't they? Of course. All essential people are required to report! Free breakfast for them. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:18:34 GMT -6
M 7.2 Dardenne Prairie Light snow is still falling.
|
|
