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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:21:20 GMT -6
Have a light mix of “stuff” falling. Measured 5 inches in dittmer MO. Definitely looks like heavier stuff has been falling north and west of me.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 12, 2019 0:21:54 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:22:47 GMT -6
What do the rap soundings suggest? The actual soundings keep things snow almost to Kfam the entire event. The near surface temps warm up to 33/34 during the duirnally driven warmth. It suggests we stay snow but accumulations will be rough between 10-3pm tomorrow. Then a better chance at a few more inches on the backend in the evening Might not make any difference, but I wonder if those temps might be a degree or two too high in areas that have more than 6 or 7 inches of snow. |
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117 
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 12, 2019 0:25:12 GMT -6
8.75" at midnight. Not too shabby considering that came in about 11 hours
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 12, 2019 0:25:57 GMT -6
I’m confused. My forecast says 3-7 inches overnight, 2-4 inches tomorrow. Is this in addition to the 6+ that has fallen already, or are we only expected to get an inch overnight? Not trying to disrupt the conversation, just a little confused by the wording.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2019 0:29:29 GMT -6
8.0" in Arnold
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2019 0:30:54 GMT -6
The actual soundings keep things snow almost to Kfam the entire event. The near surface temps warm up to 33/34 during the duirnally driven warmth. It suggests we stay snow but accumulations will be rough between 10-3pm tomorrow. Then a better chance at a few more inches on the backend in the evening Might not make any difference, but I wonder if those temps might be a degree or two too high in areas that have more than 6 or 7 inches of snow. I don't know. But the winds are Easterly. The rap/here has a slight duirnal bias. But it does look like some backside snow bc will fall. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:32:22 GMT -6
I’m confused. My forecast says 3-7 inches overnight, 2-4 inches tomorrow. Is this in addition to the 6+ that has fallen already, or are we only expected to get an inch overnight? Not trying to disrupt the conversation, just a little confused by the wording. I'm confused too. I asked the question about the zone forecasts and Chris provided an answer that I think means basically just look at the graphic. Are you using the point click forecast? |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 12, 2019 0:41:25 GMT -6
I’m confused. My forecast says 3-7 inches overnight, 2-4 inches tomorrow. Is this in addition to the 6+ that has fallen already, or are we only expected to get an inch overnight? Not trying to disrupt the conversation, just a little confused by the wording. I'm confused too. I asked the question about the zone forecasts and Chris provided an answer that I think means basically just look at the graphic. Are you using the point click forecast? Says 10-12 total. 2 more tonight, then 3 tomorrow. That would make close to 12 for mez |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:42:08 GMT -6
For Waterloo, the point click says as of 11:58:
Overnight: Snow. Low around 28. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Saturday: Snow. High near 33. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
The zone for Monroe county says as of 11:51: Rest Of Tonight: Snow. Additional snow accumulation around 2 inches. Near steady temperature around 30. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Saturday: Snow. Snow accumulation around 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 11 to 12 inches. High in the mid 30s. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
But those numbers have fluctuated wildly as the storm as progressed. I think the spirit of what I found out, is that nothing has changed from earlier expectations, which I THINK is 10 to 12 inches for that area total. I'll defer to Friv - he's keeping up on the short term forecasts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2019 0:42:20 GMT -6
I’m confused. My forecast says 3-7 inches overnight, 2-4 inches tomorrow. Is this in addition to the 6+ that has fallen already, or are we only expected to get an inch overnight? Not trying to disrupt the conversation, just a little confused by the wording. I'm confused too. I asked the question about the zone forecasts and Chris provided an answer that I think means basically just look at the graphic. Are you using the point click forecast? The actual zone forecast is found at the link towards the bottom of the point and click page. It provides the terms Chris mentioned...makes more sense than the computer generated PnC forecasts. |
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Post by jason0101 on Jan 12, 2019 0:45:36 GMT -6
Pouring small flakes right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2019 0:49:19 GMT -6
Euro has a major ice and snowstorm here in a week
Complete model fantasy but keep it in the back of your mind
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:49:26 GMT -6
I personally don't have much interest in short term forecasts - I thrive on the long term stuff. I'm already looking ahead the next couple weeks. I've flip-flopped before during storms based on radar trends and it doesn't end well for me. I recall years ago, sure as snot that I was going to get 6 to 10...but the radar trends during the storm made me think I was going to bust high, so I gave up. Friv said "hold on, the upper low is going explode right over st. Louis" - and indeed it did, and I ended up close to 10.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:51:59 GMT -6
I'm confused too. I asked the question about the zone forecasts and Chris provided an answer that I think means basically just look at the graphic. Are you using the point click forecast? The actual zone forecast is found at the link towards the bottom of the point and click page. It provides the terms Chris mentioned...makes more sense than the computer generated PnC forecasts. right...but those zone forecasts have fluctuated wildly. I thought Chris said those were automated as well. Maybe they are automated based on the PnC forecasts. Mine went from 16 to 17 down to 10, and now back to 11 to 14 for stc county. So they must be derived algorithmically. |
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Jan 12, 2019 0:52:47 GMT -6
Hubby measured in several spots for me at 11pm, and at that time we had a solid 5" here in Bowling Green. I won't be able to get any more measurements til morning when he's awake, as I'm having major knee problems and can't get out there myself. I'm anxious and excited to see how much more we'll have by morning! 27* right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2019 0:53:36 GMT -6
The actual zone forecast is found at the link towards the bottom of the point and click page. It provides the terms Chris mentioned...makes more sense than the computer generated PnC forecasts. right...but those zone forecasts have fluctuated wildly. I thought Chris said those were automated as well. Maybe they are automated based on the PnC forecasts. Mine went from 16 to 17 down to 10, and now back to 11 to 14 for stc county. So they must be derived algorithmically. Huh, I don't think they used to be that way? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2019 0:54:59 GMT -6
GFS, FV3 and GEM have major storms here as well
Interesting
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Post by foxrox on Jan 12, 2019 0:55:19 GMT -6
zone forecasts have been all over the place today..mine says 11-14...it was 8-11 2 hrs ago Where do you find zone forcasts |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 0:59:42 GMT -6
could also be staffing shortages that contributed to the fluctuations too.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:01:01 GMT -6
zone forecasts have been all over the place today..mine says 11-14...it was 8-11 2 hrs ago Where do you find zone forcasts go to the bottom of the point/click page...you will see zone forecast for such n such county. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:03:33 GMT -6
right...but those zone forecasts have fluctuated wildly. I thought Chris said those were automated as well. Maybe they are automated based on the PnC forecasts. Mine went from 16 to 17 down to 10, and now back to 11 to 14 for stc county. So they must be derived algorithmically. Huh, I don't think they used to be that way? I didn't think so either....that's why I preferred looking at them over the PnC. But there's a Last Updated parameter, and I wouldn't expect staff to be updating them that often. For example, my county says the following Last Updated 12:51 am Rest Of Tonight: Snow. Snow heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Saturday: Snow. Snow accumulation around 4 inches. High in the lower 30s. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain in the evening, then chance of freezing rain and snow after midnight. Snow accumulation less than one inch. Total snow accumulation 12 to 15 inches. A light glazing expected. Low around 30. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2019 1:06:10 GMT -6
I honestly don't care if my backyard gets 12"+
I just want to see consistent snow through Sunday.
That insane 5 hour blitzkrieg that got us to 7-8" so fast was incredible.
I think we'll finish with 10-12" here by Sunday.
With 12"+ along I70 in the St. Peters area.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:06:59 GMT -6
Looks like I picked the wrong week to give up my pipe - I must've gone through an ounce of my 5 o'clock somewhere tobacco (pina colada aroma). LOL
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:13:19 GMT -6
I honestly don't care if my backyard gets 12"+ I just want to see consistent snow through Sunday. That insane 5 hour blitzkrieg that got us to 7-8" so fast was incredible. I think we'll finish with 10-12" here by Sunday. With 12"+ along I70 in the St. Peters area. I think what got us in this conversation was the wild fluctuations of the zone forecasts when I didn't realize they were updated so frequently. It's the process for how they are updated that was in question. If there was any question about short term forecasts, you always have a good handle on that - I was trying to point that out. Anyway, I am not that much interested in the current storm at this point....I'm looking ahead. It could be busy around here. Lots of changes coming too - a big roller coaster ride. GFS doesn't have a handle on the pattern yet though. Will be interesting to see how that pans out. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:16:09 GMT -6
Have some freezing drizzle mixing in now too. Snow is getting a glaze.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2019 1:21:54 GMT -6
cgi had about 3 inches of snow based on facebook pics, but that has changed to rain. They are reporting rain and 33.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 12, 2019 1:32:52 GMT -6
Snow accumulations have slowed. Going to bed with 10” reporting.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2019 1:58:53 GMT -6
Pretty big area of precipitation blowing up South of us moving in the immediate metro in 30 mins.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 12, 2019 2:04:42 GMT -6
Just finished going on 44 at six flags and getting trucks moved over because so many cars were almost out of gas sitting there since 2 pm! Holy cow!!
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