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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2019 16:39:35 GMT -6
10-15 degrees warmer then forecast today. That is going to happen when you sit right on top of a front with a super tight temp gradient. Getting the forecast right is more of an accident than talent or good forecasting. Oh I know, just pointing out that it was ungodly warm in Union today.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2019 16:46:54 GMT -6
The warm front came through today, so when does the cold front come then?
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2019 17:08:14 GMT -6
Never mind, it's Monday!
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2019 18:08:21 GMT -6
This arctic airmass doesn’t seem any colder then what we had last year we hit -10° one time last January. Reason I remember this is because one of my diesel trucks gelled up and took out both fuel pumps as well as 2 injectors.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2019 19:38:58 GMT -6
This arctic airmass doesn’t seem any colder then what we had last year we hit -10° one time last January. Reason I remember this is because one of my diesel trucks gelled up and took out both fuel pumps as well as 2 injectors. Ouch...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 26, 2019 20:00:28 GMT -6
From disco The combination of bitter cold ambient air temperatures and wind will yield dangerously cold wind chill values of 15 to 30 below zero periodically Tuesday night into Thursday morning across the northern half of the CWA, basically I-70 northward. Also, the forecast for st louis on south is really nothing special. Today is a good example of the gradient issues we will face.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2019 20:41:06 GMT -6
NAM has some good snow showers on Tuesday- steep lapse rates up thru 3km- thru the DGZ
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2019 20:44:31 GMT -6
They are getting pummeled in Michigan starting tomorrow with lots of snow! Hope we get another go at some in Feb!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 26, 2019 20:46:11 GMT -6
Of course it is raining here
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2019 20:47:58 GMT -6
I hope it doesnt snow much the name has -34 c 850s over us. If we have 1 inch of snow we will make it much worse
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 20:58:05 GMT -6
I hope it doesnt snow much the name has -34 c 850s over us. If we have 1 inch of snow we will make it much worse Nam is too aggressive with the cold in my opinion. It usually has a cold bias.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2019 20:59:04 GMT -6
Yeah the NAM is extremely cold...brings the vortex down to Chicago and swings the cold core right across our region. -30* to -35*C h85 temps and 116dm partial thickness. That's colder than I've ever seen and would likely rival last year and possibly 2014. Obviously snowcover would make it colder but like I said before the snowpack isn't far off and there wouldn't be much modification of that airmass.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2019 21:03:31 GMT -6
I hope it doesnt snow much the name has -34 c 850s over us. If we have 1 inch of snow we will make it much worse Nam is too aggressive with the cold in my opinion. It usually has a cold bias. I dunno, this is a pretty extreme and rare setup with the vortex moving deep into the lakes and Siberian-origin airmass wrapping around the backside. Pretty ripe setup for historic cold for most of the Midwest.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2019 21:12:50 GMT -6
Just noticed how ironic it is that the core of the cold is passing through on Wednesday, the same day I have a job interview. Perhaps some kind of sign? Hopefully a good one...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 21:13:57 GMT -6
Nam is too aggressive with the cold in my opinion. It usually has a cold bias. I dunno, this is a pretty extreme and rare setup with the vortex moving deep into the lakes and Siberian-origin airmass wrapping around the backside. Pretty ripe setup for historic cold for most of the Midwest. Oh it will be damn cold. Outlying areas in the metro will go -10 to -15 probably. It's too far south with the subzero stuff in my view. I mean, I'm getting a WC of -50 or so no matter what, so I want the record low. I just think the nam is a little too aggressive.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2019 21:14:27 GMT -6
Just noticed how ironic it is that the core of the cold is passing through on Wednesday, the same day I have a job interview. Perhaps some kind of sign? Hopefully a good one... Hope your car starts...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 21:14:53 GMT -6
Just noticed how ironic it is that the core of the cold is passing through on Wednesday, the same day I have a job interview. Perhaps some kind of sign? Hopefully a good one... Good luck, sounds like a good birthday present.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2019 21:16:56 GMT -6
huh..finally dropped below 40 here. lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2019 21:18:44 GMT -6
I dunno, this is a pretty extreme and rare setup with the vortex moving deep into the lakes and Siberian-origin airmass wrapping around the backside. Pretty ripe setup for historic cold for most of the Midwest. Oh it will be damn cold. Outlying areas in the metro will go -10 to -15 probably. It's too far south with the subzero stuff in my view. I mean, I'm getting a WC of -50 or so no matter what, so I want the record low. I just think the nam is a little too aggressive. It's certainly possible that it's too agressive...the exact location of the vortex and arctic jet wrapping underneath will play a huge role in how far south the extreme airmass penetrates. The NAM definitely brings the vortex a bit further S than the 12z globals...could be a trend or a blip. But most if not all models bring the -30*C h85 isotherm to I-70 at least.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 21:27:05 GMT -6
This hybrid clipper is such a waste. Heaviest snowfall is likely over Lake Michigan. Talk about where nobody lives...
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 26, 2019 21:33:15 GMT -6
This hybrid clipper is such a waste. Heaviest snowfall is likely over Lake Michigan. Talk about where nobody lives... Western LP Michigan is gonna get some epic LES out of this sucker.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 21:39:45 GMT -6
This hybrid clipper is such a waste. Heaviest snowfall is likely over Lake Michigan. Talk about where nobody lives... Western LP Michigan is gonna get some epic LES out of this sucker. Jerks. At least I picked up extra snow today from the clipper. Hoping for a 50 mile shift south tomorrow night.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 21:59:57 GMT -6
00z gfs is similar to the nam. So, it might not be over doing it. Bare ground below zero seems nearly a lock for most. I'll go -5 for a low at KSTL Zthis week. Still think ORD doesn't go below -18 without 4-5 more inches of snow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2019 22:03:33 GMT -6
Maybe I was wrong...icon and Gfs following the nam with a slightly colder run than the last.
Icon still has the little modified clipper thurs night.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2019 22:06:23 GMT -6
Maybe I was wrong...icon and Gfs following the nam with a slightly colder run than the last. Icon still has the little modified clipper thurs night. Thursday-friday definitely worth keeping an eye on. The following week is when the southern stream kicks back in.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2019 22:15:49 GMT -6
Monday pm rush will be something I’ll avoid
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2019 22:21:07 GMT -6
Monday pm rush will be something I’ll avoid You thinking snow showers behind the arctic front? Some of the soundings immediately behind the front also have a freezing drizzle look to them
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2019 22:21:55 GMT -6
Rain to snow with crashing temps- it won’t take much
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2019 22:30:15 GMT -6
I'd definitely keep my eye on Tuesday afternoon. Like Coz mentioned, the sfc to 3km lapse rates are very steep(almost 9C/km) and the NAM has some good frontogensis forcing across the area
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2019 22:46:55 GMT -6
Rain to snow with crashing temps- it won’t take much Had same scenario on this past Wednesday morning........don’t think there was to many issues around the area. I only had to put chemicals on the north facing sides of a couple properties I maintain.
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