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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2019 18:56:26 GMT -6
It is unfortunate it is expected to warm back up. Only a few days ago it looked like it would be below freezing for highs got the foreseeable future. I think it could get pretty wild with that Arctic air so close by and a redeveloping southern jet. We need a -NAO to keep the cold air from being transient though a blocking pattern would also likely suppress the storm track down to the Gulf and we don't want that either. I mean, everyone was bored with the northwest flow. It seems like mid latitude cyclones that drop 6+ on the backside and that are trackable for 5 days at a time will make more people happy. You dont get those and subfreezing temps that last for weeks on end in St. Louis. It's one or the other or none. Personally, I think things are setting up well for a couple bigger storms. But I'm sure there will be complaints ababout the snow melting within a couple days. Hard crowd to please.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2019 19:12:22 GMT -6
It is unfortunate it is expected to warm back up. Only a few days ago it looked like it would be below freezing for highs got the foreseeable future. I think it could get pretty wild with that Arctic air so close by and a redeveloping southern jet. We need a -NAO to keep the cold air from being transient though a blocking pattern would also likely suppress the storm track down to the Gulf and we don't want that either. I mean, everyone was bored with the northwest flow. It seems like mid latitude cyclones that drop 6+ on the backside and that are trackable for 5 days at a time will make more people happy. You dont get those and subfreezing temps that last for weeks on end in St. Louis. It's one or the other or none. Personally, I think things are setting up well for a couple bigger storms. But I'm sure there will be complaints ababout the snow melting within a couple days. Hard crowd to please. You ain't kiddin'. Between several good snows, many days with snow flying, and this hardcore cold coming, we've had a solid winter. Very rarely do we see snow after snow with temps below freezing for 3 weeks straight. Happened in 2001-2002 I think (maybe a different year) but other than that it's tough to do.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2019 20:16:13 GMT -6
November was great. December was horrible. January only started being good 2 weeks ago. We jave had nymerous occasions ob su. Freezing temps for 10 or 12 or 14 days..i think just a year or 2 ago we did. This winter has been great compared to the last 3 or 4. But lets not make a huge deal of a arctic blast that lasts 36 hours. Sure places like Minneapolis.chicago..des moines...itll be maybe historic, but nothing unusual here. And most times when we see cutters on the models..they stay cutters and we get more glorious rain. We'll see how this fantastic february everyone has talked about for weeks on end works out.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2019 20:23:40 GMT -6
Incase anyone cares The actual NAM soundings at 00Z for KSTL and KBLV are snow for the post frontal precip tomorrow. The precip type maps show rain but the soundings show snow. But it's pretty freaking close either way. This is Belleville at 9am: Then at noon. There is a warm at the surface about 34-35F. Another plus is the warm layer is like 200-300ft thick. So I don't know what to think. The precip type maps require the column to be below 32.6F to print out all snow. So verbatim this is probably all snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2019 20:25:10 GMT -6
It was like a top 5 snowfall 2 weeks ago.
That should make January about as good as it gets.
Lambert already beat the seasonal mark. We have 6 weeks left. This winter is an A headed for a potential A+
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 27, 2019 20:26:47 GMT -6
Indeed it's been a solid winter I. Addidtion this cold coming while it may be short it is deadly. Think about it tomorrow afternoon through Friday at noon below 25 degrees as well as below 10 from Tuesday at 9pm to Thursday at 9 am anf near anf below zero for 24 hours. As you see a high of 4 in st.louis Wednesday meaning most along 70 and north below zero. With windchills. This is a top 10 coldest day in record coming it is significant don't think its not. Think about the folks in the streets. This is deadly. Ok end rant sorry
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 27, 2019 20:28:42 GMT -6
I still think we’re going to see some good snow shower action Tuesday
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2019 20:34:02 GMT -6
It was like a top 5 snowfall 2 weeks ago. That should make January about as good as it gets. Lambert already beat the seasonal mark. We have 6 weeks left. This winter is an A headed for a potential A+ We had snowflakes fall on like 10 to 12 Days by December 1st. At this point we've had snowflakes fall on about 30 days might be a little bit more. We are going to have snowflakes fall tomorrow. The day after tomorrow. The day after that. And probably the day after that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2019 20:47:04 GMT -6
Even if the initial frontal precip is rain.
Which is questionable.
By noon we will be seeing WIDESPREAD snow squalls/showers with solid snow growth by mid afternoon because the DGZ will be right off the deck.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone especially along and E/SE of 55/64 in IL picked up a 1/2-1"
Then on Tuesday it looks like 1-2" is possible through the metro.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2019 20:47:49 GMT -6
I still think we’re going to see some good snow shower action Tuesday Agree... should see some solid snow bursts.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 27, 2019 21:11:05 GMT -6
Chris mentioned that post frontal snow that was not modeled at all a few years ago in Iowa that dropped 10". Last winter we had that happen down in the bootheel. I have a friend that lives in Osceola Arkansas which is west of Memphis and the arctic front slowed down there last winter and dumped 8" on him and none of the models were picking up on that. Not saying anything like that will happen but I think someone picking up an inch is quite possible and if so that could have a huge impact in how cold it gets Tuesday night.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 27, 2019 22:21:19 GMT -6
WSC- looks like you will see 4+ tonight... so you going -25. I'll stick with my -21. You can owe me a beer when you get back in town.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2019 22:27:25 GMT -6
Let us know how it goes up there wsc.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2019 22:30:59 GMT -6
WSC- looks like you will see 4+ tonight... so you going -25. I'll stick with my -21. You can owe me a beer when you get back in town. Yeah, I kind of thought this storm would either shift north and give me nothing or shift south and give me 6+. Instead, my over/under was like spot on. I'll be back for Opening Day, so a beer near BP Village is possible.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 27, 2019 22:53:34 GMT -6
Didn’t someone post something a month or so ago about how they couldn’t find a single winter that had a cold/snowy November that had above average snow and cold temps? We are already over our usual snow total for the season and it’s not even February yet. Doesn’t seem to follow history then.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 27, 2019 22:58:06 GMT -6
Didn’t someone post something a month or so ago about how they couldn’t find a single winter that had a cold/snowy November that had above average snow and cold temps? We are already over our usual snow total for the season and it’s not even February yet. Doesn’t seem to follow history then. That was me. Looking back I couldn't find a single one but this year has broken the curse.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 28, 2019 2:08:12 GMT -6
We just had a burst of sleet, sprinkles and big graupel balls.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2019 3:11:52 GMT -6
Snowing in sheets sideways up north.
Should have true blizzard conditions briefly as the heaviest snow moves in.
Saw a report that Rockford already has a snow depth of 15 inches with another 3+ inches expected.
They are going to get insanely cold.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 28, 2019 3:20:50 GMT -6
Batten down the hatches, Labrat!!
Map of the winds approach Omaha from the David Koeller Facebook page as of 2 AM
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2019 3:31:57 GMT -6
meh, lame forecast for here. Yes, it'll be very cold. But for very briefly. It's going to be above normal this weekend longer than it'll be below normal. It'll almost cancel out the cold. Probably will by mid week.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 28, 2019 4:13:13 GMT -6
Rain in Lake St Louis
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 28, 2019 4:15:51 GMT -6
The models have TRENDED drier with the post frontal afternoon precipitation.
Snoooooze
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2019 4:17:51 GMT -6
I'm still waiting for this dusting of snow people were expecting for the arctic air.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 28, 2019 5:07:18 GMT -6
Seriously tho. The whining is pretty lame things considering. We are doing very well. And it's very likely we see another 5-12" the rest of the winter. We have almost 60 days left of reasonable time frame it can snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2019 5:50:41 GMT -6
As I have said several times, this season has been good..great compared to previous years. December was horrible. The first 14 days of this month weren't too good. After Thursday, we have many days of above to well above normal temps. The cold won't last nearly as long as expected. There is no snow to go with it, so it's a waste anyway. Now will the cold come back? Probably. But this fantastic February people have been hootin' and hollerin' about appears in jeopardy, at least the 1st week. Long term ensembles seem to show a pretty stout se ridge. There may be a big fight between that ridge and the arctic air. Where does that battle set up? Near here or to our nw?
P.S Snow in the air, that doesn't amount to anything is not good snow, and should not be counted as such. It's just trace amounts, and shows it was cold enough to snow. Hell it was 40 the other here with flakes. Not exciting.
P.P.S I love you all and love this place to talk weather, we are lucky Chris did this for us. Have a good day all!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2019 6:16:32 GMT -6
The temp at Lambert went up to 44 from 34 between 1 and 6am. May hit 50 before the front gets here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 28, 2019 6:21:47 GMT -6
When you consider that St. Louis is practically in the Mid-South region...it's been a pretty darn good winter. It's not like it ever gets cold and snowy in November and lasts through March here...we're not exactly in a snowbelt. The expectations get way out of touch sometimes, IMO.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 28, 2019 6:33:44 GMT -6
Some of us are just greedy. Had mother nature herself told me in October,"There will be one twelve inch snowfall this winter and nothing else...will you take that?"..I would've signed on the dotted line immediately. Now I want more! It's an addiction. Even while it is happening I find myself wondering how long I must wait until my next fix.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 28, 2019 6:51:10 GMT -6
I give this winter a solid D+. I don’t count the November snow. There was one solid storm, then a whiff, then rain. Followed by more rain, ending with brutally arctic air that is in and out. Another storm with some staying power, the grade will increase dramatically. But, that’s as likely as a clipper hitting us directly.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 28, 2019 7:05:49 GMT -6
Lol, snow in November doesn't count and an 8-12 inch snow is just "solid."
That is good trolling.
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