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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2019 7:42:32 GMT -6
Also of note latest rap is extremely aggressive with tonight's cold snap Negative 10 to 20 from 70 north including Lambert at -11 I believe it has extreme temp issues. In the summer it will print out 120, so take it with a grain of salt. I thought that was the HRRRRRRrrrrrr...
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Post by dschreib on Jan 29, 2019 7:50:18 GMT -6
We have thousands of speckle belly, Canada, and Snow/blue staging back to the south of my Business in Mascoutah, we’re on the edge of town. Never seen specs reverse migrate like what I saw the past couple days. They’re staging in the city lake and corn field. They kept a steady flow of flocks coming in from the south, and the southeast. I heard more geese flying over my house in the past hour than i can ever remember at any one time. I saw them heading south over Fayetteville the other day. Probably going to sit on the warm Baldwin water.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 29, 2019 7:51:12 GMT -6
My wife will be very happy. More importantly, there shouldn't be children stuck outside with wind chills of -50. They made a good decision, although I understand there are more factors to consider up here. A guy I work with used to live up that way. He said they wouldn't cancel for snow, but they would for cold.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2019 7:57:39 GMT -6
I was sitting at 13* when I looked at thermo....just popped to 14* while writing this.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2019 7:58:39 GMT -6
Also of note latest rap is extremely aggressive with tonight's cold snap Negative 10 to 20 from 70 north including Lambert at -11 Not sure what rap you are seeing... but the ones on pivotalweather only show 0 in STL... give or take a degree depending on the run.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2019 8:08:40 GMT -6
Chris what are your thoughts on snow showers this evening?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2019 8:21:07 GMT -6
Chris what are your thoughts on snow showers this evening? Seems like a pretty good bet of at least some snow showers/flurries. There could be a more substantial burst (5 minute blizzard type burst) with the passage of the front...sometime between Noon and 3pm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 29, 2019 8:23:19 GMT -6
I see the 13z RAP has come in colder. It has -3 at 10z with a wind chill of -25.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2019 9:16:42 GMT -6
NAM swings a blob of -40*C h85 temps across CHI tomorrow AM...unreal!
It sure looks likely that the all-time record low of -27*F will be challenged.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 29, 2019 9:28:43 GMT -6
Does anyone else think it’s to hot outside? Needs to be colder.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2019 10:04:03 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see if we can break our wx station record low which is -11*F set in 2014. RAP 2m temps has it close, the NAM "warmer" at -5*F or so. This airmass is colder than 2014 but we don't have the snowcover this time so I'm thinking the record will probably stand and it will be close for a subzero day tomorrow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 10:20:47 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week.
I think we have something.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 29, 2019 10:30:39 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week. I think we have something. It sends a shallow arctic airmass down in front of the low ejecting from the SW. It brings it to us but not all the way through. I think this is something to keep an eye on for a potential icing setup given it does NOT handle shallow arctic airmasses well. It could just as well cut north but this has that classic overrunning look to it, but for now models aren't showing the cold seeping quite far enough down and staying. Some of our biggest ice storms have occurred when the temps the previous days were ridiculously warm. I think we were in the low 70's a day before the Nov. 30-Dec. 1 2006 storm. Just something to watch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2019 10:31:38 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week. I think we have something. Yeah, I do too...I think an overrunning scenario is favored but a good cyclone or two could be possible as well. It may take one system to lift through before we can get the cold in place though...that's usually how it is.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 29, 2019 10:33:26 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see if we can break our wx station record low which is -11*F set in 2014. RAP 2m temps has it close, the NAM "warmer" at -5*F or so. This airmass is colder than 2014 but we don't have the snowcover this time so I'm thinking the record will probably stand and it will be close for a subzero day tomorrow. My record on my weather station is -8° recorded on January 2 2018 with no snow on the ground. Didn’t have one of these back in 2014 though.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 29, 2019 10:41:31 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week. I think we have something. Yeah, I do too...I think an overrunning scenario is favored but a good cyclone or two could be possible as well. It may take one system to lift through before we can get the cold in place though...that's usually how it is. I haven’t looked yet today but yesterday’s models looked like the WAA snows we had I think in the winter of 2014 or 2013 where the band of snow was literally West to East. But the airmass was colder IIRC. Either way, definitely something of interest next week. The orientation of the 6-10 and 8-14 long range temp maps would suggest our area to be ripe for a parade of southern storms lifting through the area.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 29, 2019 11:25:00 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week. I think we have something. You probably do for snow and ice. St louis looks to be rain ending as fr drizzle and flurries if youre talking abt mid week. Is 7 days out though, so who knows.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 29, 2019 11:27:52 GMT -6
12z gfs looks loaded to me for next week. I think we have something. Yeah, I do too...I think an overrunning scenario is favored but a good cyclone or two could be possible as well. It may take one system to lift through before we can get the cold in place though...that's usually how it is. Now that might be a possibility...initial system seems to hold back the deep cold until main lift is out of here but if we can get some development of secondary system i can see more wintry wx.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 29, 2019 11:39:24 GMT -6
Looks like our clipper coming in Wednesday night could have a decent area of 1/2” - 1.5” accumulations.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 29, 2019 11:47:38 GMT -6
GFS trending weaker and thus further south with 7 day out system. I do like the placement of some key features on the GFS. Particularly, the 1042mb high squeezing down from the Dakotas
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2019 12:09:15 GMT -6
12Z Euro has wind chill values tonight getting down to warning criteria in the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2019 12:09:47 GMT -6
EURO with a light .05-.1 qpf tomorrow night.
1-2" with ratios 18-20 most likely.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2019 12:12:29 GMT -6
EURO has us getting down to -1 in far southern to -12 in far northern viewing area.
-7 downtown. Models continue to trend slightly colder for tonight. WCW will most likely be extended down several counties.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 12:18:31 GMT -6
So close to the record on the euro.
Never mind, smoke it Thursday morning.
-30 is my goal.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2019 12:23:47 GMT -6
Ya Chicagoland gets down to -30F across the board Thursday morning.
Good luck WSC
If you start getting to cold just think of Goldy hitting a homer on a hot July day at Busch to warm you up
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2019 12:26:52 GMT -6
EURO goes mid 60's on Super Bowl Sunday.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 29, 2019 12:31:47 GMT -6
Universities in Chicago that hardly ever cancel anything have done it. You know it's gonna be dangerous.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2019 12:35:26 GMT -6
Universities in Chicago that hardly ever cancel anything have done it. You know it's gonna be dangerous. That kind of cold isn't a joke. Exposed skin will start to develop frostbite in minutes
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 29, 2019 12:39:29 GMT -6
So close to the record on the euro. Never mind, smoke it Thursday morning. -30 is my goal. Do they have heated wheel-wells up there?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 29, 2019 12:41:02 GMT -6
Might need an engine block warmer or a heated oil dipstick up there.
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