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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 17, 2019 5:52:51 GMT -6
that sounds like its a "not much to see here" storm for the immediate 270 loop in Missouri if those are the 2 max areas.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 5:53:25 GMT -6
The track of the 850 and 500 mb centers on the FV3...GFS and to some extent the NAM3k...and from what I can tell of the EPS/GES seem to hint at a more northward displacement of the max snowband vs what the explicit QPF output might suggest. That's not just me cherry picking...that's doing the measurements.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 6:17:27 GMT -6
The track of the 850 and 500 mb centers on the FV3...GFS and to some extent the NAM3k...and from what I can tell of the EPS/GES seem to hint at a more northward displacement of the max snowband vs what the explicit QPF output might suggest. That's not just me cherry picking...that's doing the measurements. Yep...that's what I've been seeing as well. Models may still be wavering a bit, but a blend of mass fields has been pretty consistently favoring the 44/70 corridor right through the Metro. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 6:32:12 GMT -6
This is where I'm heading....I'm not ready to put the upper bound on it...mostly because I don't want to throw a bigger number out there yet...but I'm thinking 3-6" for metro... but probably a 6+ band way up north of our area....like Kirksville...to Quincy...and on east from there...  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 6:32:24 GMT -6
00z GEM looks pretty close to what you would expect given a blend of the other models...I'm going with it.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 6:33:12 GMT -6
Snow man post 6z euro information if you can
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 6:38:10 GMT -6
As much as I loath off-hour runs and the GFS...the 06z GFS looks great as well with its mass fields. I would say it's placement of the defo/TROWAL band is 30-50mi too far S. It's warm on the front end though...there's a lot of disagreement with that still.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 6:40:53 GMT -6
Very foggy drive from Union to washington this morning. Quarter mile or less at times. I remember hearing long ago that fog is a big snow eater. True?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 6:44:27 GMT -6
The verification scores remain better for the off hour run than the previous on hour run. It's just a cognitive bias at some point.
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Post by terrystl on Jan 17, 2019 6:44:54 GMT -6
I hope I don’t get caught in between here in Kc .. I really want snow on snow but honestly since moving here I just feel like I have a greater chance of getting in on the fun with every storm lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 6:50:35 GMT -6
6z Euro only has 2-3 for metro. Has defo band to the north.. looks like the critical placements are the same as earlier.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 17, 2019 6:51:31 GMT -6
Kid hockey game for this Friday night postponed. That's a first. I've only seen two high school games cancelled ever in the past 3 1/2 years, and both were on the same day as the system. Last week was one of them, and they didn't cancel until after 3pm. I suppose that there was trauma from that.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 6:57:53 GMT -6
postponing for rain. Lol. Funny stuff
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 7:00:53 GMT -6
So the City of Washington is spreading salt all over town this morning.......36* and rising.......I don’t understand that logic.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 17, 2019 7:02:20 GMT -6
postponing for rain. Lol. Funny stuff More like, 'postponing because parents all over the bi-state area melted our phone lines last weekend and we're not going to risk that again. Screw it, let's sit home instead and watch Netflix'. |
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 17, 2019 7:03:26 GMT -6
I finally saw the map of something that’s rhymes with door on fb...I still think it’s last week photo but once you click forecast map it goes to a written forecast.. scary times for them. I didn’t want to post photo.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 7:03:42 GMT -6
Very foggy drive from Union to washington this morning. Quarter mile or less at times. I remember hearing long ago that fog is a big snow eater. True? Well dense fog over snow cover is typically due to WAA over it...so I would say that's partially true. But fog is better for snowcover than sun for sure, lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 7:06:23 GMT -6
So the City of Washington is spreading salt all over town this morning.......36* and rising.......I don’t understand that logic. Overreaction due to what happened with the last storm, IMO. I got caught behind a slow driver the other night during the advisory. You could tell they were nervous of icy roads because they were slowing way below the limit around curves and down hills. I looked at the thermo and it was 36*, lol. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 7:07:39 GMT -6
Hope you northerners enjoy your snow  . I'll need a miracle for much down here. Or a well placed narrow band. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 7:08:09 GMT -6
I know there is a lot of emphasis put on the upper lows. If I was just going to look at the surface low track I would say the best waa would be north of here because the low tracks quite a bit north of the Red River Valley, and if it develops deformation band it will move rather quickly, so it won't give a ton of accumulation. That straight East track is just not favorable for the deformation band to hang around here and the speed makes it worse.
Just my thoughts.
A little correction. It's not traveling due east, but it's not going up into the Ohio Valley like most of our favored storms would. If it turned up a little sharper we could be "back side" for a while
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 17, 2019 7:12:45 GMT -6
Pretty foggy and misty in Wentzville this morning. It was 34 degrees on the car thermometer, so pretty close to being a dangerous icing event.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 7:27:59 GMT -6
I've got a feeling someone on here is going to be reporting some extremely heavy snowfall Saturday and getting jackpotted. But who will it be...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 7:29:13 GMT -6
Latest SREF plumes are in and trended down a bit...but just over 4" with still a pretty healthy spread in the members.
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Post by birddog on Jan 17, 2019 7:30:02 GMT -6
Point forecast for macoupin county says 2-4" Friday night and 2-4" Saturday.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 7:33:25 GMT -6
Chris... "down" in your last post equals south?
My point forecast has 1-3 on Saturday. The wife and I made the decision to not go to Ft. Riley this weekend to say bye to our son. We will, instead, plan a trip overseas this spring to visit him in Germany.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 7:38:00 GMT -6
Chris... "down" in your last post equals south? My point forecast has 1-3 on Saturday. The wife and I made the decision to not go to Ft. Riley this weekend. We will, instead, plan a trip overseas this spring to visit him in Germany. No...reduced...originally was showing 5+.... now sref is down to a touch over 4. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 7:39:13 GMT -6
Ahhhh... thank you. I wasnt seeing that picture, I am now.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 7:41:41 GMT -6
RT has some great video of Thunder Snow at mammoth Mountain in CA.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 17, 2019 7:42:42 GMT -6
Weax, that’s so cool to have him follow in your footsteps! My bro in law and sister in law flew to Germany years ago when their son, wife and kids lived there! His son has followed in his footsteps too! Three generations of service to America! Enjoy your trip! 62 days til spring!
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Post by dschreib on Jan 17, 2019 7:51:29 GMT -6
Very foggy drive from Union to washington this morning. Quarter mile or less at times. I remember hearing long ago that fog is a big snow eater. True? I don't know about that, but the last couple days have been pretty efficient snow-melters at my place. Probably won't be much left after today. |
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. I'll need a miracle for much down here. Or a well placed narrow band. 
