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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 7:59:41 GMT -6
The snow definitely kept us much cooler this week. Warmest so far across the area has been maybe 34 to 38. If there was no snow I bet we could of had some sun and 50s
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 8:06:03 GMT -6
Very foggy drive from Union to washington this morning. Quarter mile or less at times. I remember hearing long ago that fog is a big snow eater. True? I don't know about that, but the last couple days have been pretty efficient snow-melters at my place. Probably won't be much left after today. Not that it is a big fog-eater... but it is a symptom of snow melt...adds lots of low level moisture into cold air and results in some of the most dense fog you'll ever see. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 8:06:24 GMT -6
Sticking with 2 to 4 imby, but yes bust potential is high where we cld get a linger period of rain and sleet and an inch of snow if the house of cards gets shakey. Moderate impact that may very well translate to an advisory issued by friday, for saturday.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 8:09:24 GMT -6
Imby, given the amt of rain and warmth, i was never that impressed with my chances for snow on snow. Im somewhat impressed with snow on snow chances mid week but the public forecasts are coming in warmer and wetter than i wld hv thght, so we will see if snowcover affects temps.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 17, 2019 8:09:30 GMT -6
From a NWS Conf. Call, sounds like current thoughts are 2-4" in the metro in general. Some concern with blowing and drifting late in the event as the wet snow transitions to dry snow.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 17, 2019 8:10:15 GMT -6
With absolutely no scientific basis, I just have a hunch from reading all of this, and the trends, that I'll end up with a rain-to-a-dusting situation here in Hazelwood. Just doesn't feel like "our" storm right around here. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I have zero excitement over this one.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 8:11:31 GMT -6
This thing is just now coming ashore... it looks like it is in central to south central CA? Am I seeing that right?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 8:18:20 GMT -6
Yeah 2 to 4 is a good range to convey the magnitude of this system. If somebody gets 6, thats going to be an exception. If snow comes in sooner than i think we all cld be in for a little more, but i think theres just as much of a chance that we will be sitting around with piles of ice on the side of our driveways on saturday morning going, "rain with pings of sleet wih hamsters and half rabbits"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 8:18:58 GMT -6
This thing is just now coming ashore... it looks like it is in central to south central CA? Am I seeing that right? The nose of the energy is hitting the coast...but the entire system will not be ashore until this evening. |
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273 
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Jan 17, 2019 8:19:40 GMT -6
Would not say that I am excited, but always happy to see any snow. If it is 2-3” so be it. Plus NWS is forecasting another shot mid week.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 8:19:42 GMT -6
From a NWS Conf. Call, sounds like current thoughts are 2-4" in the metro in general. Some concern with blowing and drifting late in the event as the wet snow transitions to dry snow. I take it that this was for EMs only....I never got a notification for a conference call. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 17, 2019 8:20:27 GMT -6
Has to be a really tough drive on the freeways this morning. Fog is so dense here that it makes objects less than 100' away seem a bit hazy.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 17, 2019 8:21:49 GMT -6
Well the 12Z NAM stinks. Never really organizes and is a sheared out mess.
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Jan 17, 2019 8:22:35 GMT -6
Has to be a really tough drive on the freeways this morning. Fog is so dense here that it makes objects less than 100' away seem a bit hazy. . A wreck at meramec bottom and 55 slowed my commute today. The perfect choke point. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 8:32:15 GMT -6
Well after a few rough days with talking with clients and explaining my situation to them I have helped them get a new provider for 95% of them so they will at least be provided proper service during the remainder of the season. Hated to see some of them as they have been clients for 20+ years. But with that said it was a huge weight off my shoulders and I can now move forward and concentrate on the rest of my client list and provide superior service to them as I always strive to do.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 8:33:24 GMT -6
Well the 12Z NAM stinks. Never really organizes and is a sheared out mess. It pulls it together a bit at hour 54-57. I've seen worse. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 8:33:54 GMT -6
Well the 12Z NAM stinks. Never really organizes and is a sheared out mess. mightbe due to partial sampling? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 8:35:23 GMT -6
yeah nam is just A little late coming together. Still time for it to come around
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 8:35:44 GMT -6
Well the 12Z NAM stinks. Never really organizes and is a sheared out mess. Has 3-4" along and SE of I44. Leaves i70 in Mo missed. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 8:35:57 GMT -6
Actually...the 12z NAM has an interesting new twist...slowing the system just as it reaches the Mississippi River...phasing in a new chunk of energy from the north. The result is a short wavelength, negatively tilted trough at 54 hours with a vortmax centered between CGI and the bootheel. If that happens... explosive development/vertical motion should occur in the deformation zone. Sure enough... that's what it shows from 54 to 57 hours... with widespread 3-4+ snow totals from STL to the east and south....
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 8:37:59 GMT -6
Yes NAM definitely pulled a def zone together
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 8:39:57 GMT -6
Right now I'm liking a widespread 2-4/3-6" with a band of 5-8" pretty much straddling 44/70. Far S counties will probably be closer to 1-2" on the tail end. I could see some double digit amounts if persistent banding sets up or a quicker transition to snow...but that's a low confidence scenario. The progressive nature of the storm will also limit higher totals.
I'm not sure why so many have low expectations this time around...this is our classic heavy snow setup.
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Post by birddog on Jan 17, 2019 8:40:26 GMT -6
As a dummy (speaking for myself) just seen on TWC that a WSW is already been issued for PA,NY etc. So it is possible to come to a definite solution there 3 days out than it is here less than 36 hrs here? Can someone explain this in a layman's term? I understand, they get more snow and colder temps, but if a track can be layed that far out for them, they must know how it will track here? I understand temps play a major roll.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 8:40:33 GMT -6
The hires nam has the deformation zone so far SE cape Girardeau is on the NW edges of it.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 17, 2019 8:42:06 GMT -6
Right now I'm liking a widespread 2-4/3-6" with a band of 5-8" pretty much straddling 44/70. Far S counties will probably be closer to 1-2" on the tail end. I could see some double digit amounts if persistent banding sets up or a quicker transition to snow...but that's a low confidence scenario. I'm not sure why so many have low expectations this time around...this is our classic heavy snow setup. Because the last storm spoiled us. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 8:45:00 GMT -6
Looking at the NAM... I would argue it may be the best run it has had for this storm... finally showing some quality organization with the deformation zone...albeit it a little slow on the get-up...
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 17, 2019 8:48:11 GMT -6
This storm is super hard to follow when you're not totally educated on the models, like myself. What are we thinking on timing for it to turn over to snow? Are we still thinking ice at the start down here, or has that ship sailed? I have a huge school function Saturday from 9-12 and I'm trying to keep my eye on this thing....Thanks for your input!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 8:49:41 GMT -6
Looking ahead, im pretty impressed with the consistency of the overall pattern for the next week to 10 days...primarily a nw flow setting up and that means some clipper activity possible. This comes on the heeks of a fast moving, somewhat moisture starved system mid week which cld bring us a light to moderate impact of wintry weather if temps are cold enough at the surface, and my thinking is they will be somewhat colder than going forecasts with the precip.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 8:56:07 GMT -6
What I don't get is how they have the low charging East Northeast like it's going to go all the way over the mountains like that. Usually they got a little more bend and another low reforms. I don't know. Just seems a little strange
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 8:58:36 GMT -6
I'll take that nam for sure. We are living on the back edge a bit here though, so we don't want it to wait any longer to get itself together. Otherwise we are all screwed. Once again quite jealous of my snow-loving uncle who lives in rural New York state.
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