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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 9:01:22 GMT -6
Right now I'm liking a widespread 2-4/3-6" with a band of 5-8" pretty much straddling 44/70. Far S counties will probably be closer to 1-2" on the tail end. I could see some double digit amounts if persistent banding sets up or a quicker transition to snow...but that's a low confidence scenario. The progressive nature of the storm will also limit higher totals. I'm not sure why so many have low expectations this time around...this is our classic heavy snow setup. Because if the system doesn't pull it self together in time. The entire metro will be looking at a coating to 2" or less. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 9:04:45 GMT -6
This storm is super hard to follow when you're not totally educated on the models, like myself. What are we thinking on timing for it to turn over to snow? Are we still thinking ice at the start down here, or has that ship sailed? I have a huge school function Saturday from 9-12 and I'm trying to keep my eye on this thing....Thanks for your input! No ice. Snow will mostly be afternoon SAturday. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 9:07:55 GMT -6
With the nam factored in, imo, it still gives 2 to 4 but as it pulls together some of illinois ppl cld see totals reaching 6 and some of our far western ppl more along the lines of 1 to 2.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 9:11:40 GMT -6
Icon looks great
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 9:12:47 GMT -6
If this does slow down, that would give the initial push of cold air to dig in a bit and make this an all snow event?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 9:15:57 GMT -6
Right now I'm liking a widespread 2-4/3-6" with a band of 5-8" pretty much straddling 44/70. Far S counties will probably be closer to 1-2" on the tail end. I could see some double digit amounts if persistent banding sets up or a quicker transition to snow...but that's a low confidence scenario. The progressive nature of the storm will also limit higher totals. I'm not sure why so many have low expectations this time around...this is our classic heavy snow setup. Because if the system doesn't pull it self together in time. The entire metro will be looking at a coating to 2" or less. True, but pretty much every model now has the mid-level system closing off and deepening...model consensus still tracks a deepening 850mb low across S MO/IL. The NAM finally looks like it's catching on... |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 9:17:45 GMT -6
If it slows enough and gets a bit more curve in the track EVERYTHING changes
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 9:23:22 GMT -6
Icon is great for I-44 points SE. Models seem to be starting to hone in on that. Let's hope it doesn't go any further SE.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 9:24:29 GMT -6
You sure? Looks like a huge whiff for all of us |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 17, 2019 9:39:00 GMT -6
From a NWS Conf. Call, sounds like current thoughts are 2-4" in the metro in general. Some concern with blowing and drifting late in the event as the wet snow transitions to dry snow. I take it that this was for EMs only....I never got a notification for a conference call. Yes sir. It was a regional mutual-aid call |
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 17, 2019 9:40:17 GMT -6
This storm is super hard to follow when you're not totally educated on the models, like myself. What are we thinking on timing for it to turn over to snow? Are we still thinking ice at the start down here, or has that ship sailed? I have a huge school function Saturday from 9-12 and I'm trying to keep my eye on this thing....Thanks for your input! No ice. Snow will mostly be afternoon SAturday. Thank you! |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 9:43:03 GMT -6
GFS looks to have the perfect track too...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 9:44:17 GMT -6
Gfs looks north
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 9:49:56 GMT -6
Looking at the surface thickness charts the low tracks right over the boot heel. Has the 540 line north of STL until it passes east. Is it warmer?
EDIT: GFS Model is what I am talking about.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 9:50:20 GMT -6
It's just progressive and unorganized.
So the nam barely scrapes us.
The GFS, hires nam and Icon are complete whiffs.
The fv3 so far through 33 hours is also flatter
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 9:51:22 GMT -6
Yea, not great trends here. It just isn't going to organize in time for anyone to get more than an inch or two I don't think.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 9:51:54 GMT -6
Models definitely not coming like I hoped.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 9:53:44 GMT -6
Do we need to write it off or could it just be bad data this round
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 9:54:58 GMT -6
The NAM who does seem to put more curve on to it and bring it into the Ohio Valley. Just don't know what's going to happen here
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 9:55:17 GMT -6
Still not fully ashore...
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2019 9:56:56 GMT -6
I think I’m still sitting pretty well here in SPI. Northern Greene County in IL where I ride looks to be sitting pretty well also.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 9:57:46 GMT -6
These trends are not because it's not "sampled" correctly.
It is what it is.
The upper level system is weaker and more progressive.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 9:57:52 GMT -6
With the way the models ha e been handling this system...I would definitely wait until its fully samples on the 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. If they stull suck then then screw it. Until then...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 10:02:31 GMT -6
With the way the models ha e been handling this system...I would definitely wait until its fully samples on the 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. If they stull suck then then screw it. Until then... The gem throws a little love from Union to Belleville. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 10:03:30 GMT -6
If nothing else... the GFS is windy!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 10:05:50 GMT -6
Maybe I’m seeing something wrong here, but the trend this morning seems more positive than negative to me. We are finally getting some model consensus on a nice backside hit for the area. Ya, some models look better than others, but overall I feel it’s positive
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 10:07:41 GMT -6
With the way the models ha e been handling this system...I would definitely wait until its fully samples on the 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. If they stull suck then then screw it. Until then... The gem throws a little love from Union to Belleville. The fv3 has a thin 3-4" band from like Jeff co to Belleville. And a little SE of there. With maybe an 1-2" around that. The gem band is a little North really thin like 3-5" along I64 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 10:07:51 GMT -6
What are you guys talking about? The GFS looks awesome. Look at that strong vort max lifting NE across S IL...it's almost surely too far S with the snow band along/SE of 44. There's a definite trend of a closed mid-level low and a slight negative tilt. How is that a whiff? I'm guessing that is based completely on QPF/snowfall output...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 10:09:03 GMT -6
Maybe I’m seeing something wrong here, but the trend this morning seems more positive than negative to me. We are finally getting some model consensus on a nice backside hit for the area. Ya, some models look better than others, but overall I feel it’s positive Well all of the models are trending towards a weaker more progressive system. One more general tick that way and this one is toast. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 10:12:30 GMT -6
Gem looks great
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