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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 10:13:18 GMT -6
What are you guys talking about? The GFS looks awesome. Look at that strong vort max lifting NE across S IL...it's almost surely too far S with the snow band along/SE of 44. There's a definite trend of a closed mid-level low and a slight negative tilt. How is that a whiff? I'm guessing that is based completely on QPF/snowfall output... I feel less crazy now lol. I think the NAM and GFS are solid which is light years ahead of where they’ve been lately with this system |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 17, 2019 10:13:47 GMT -6
I've never been more confused in 12 years of reading this board than I am this week  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 10:16:59 GMT -6
Not seeing this trend at all.
Maybe on the nam.
The fv3, icon, gem, and euro are all weaker and more progressive with the mid levels.
The GFS is weaker as well.
Yesterday half the models had a closed low from Texas to the river
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 10:17:21 GMT -6
I tend to agree with 920 and brtn. Qpf kinda blows...but tracks and evolution seem decent
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 17, 2019 10:17:28 GMT -6
This forecast has had more twice and turns than a daytime soap!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 10:21:26 GMT -6
Snow melting fast today
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 17, 2019 10:23:57 GMT -6
You know it's puzzling when even the pro meteorologists are struggling with this one. Been a while since we have seen a storm throw this many twists and turns at us with so much uncertainty. It just goes to show you how many variables are in play and how just a subtle shift or change in any of them can throw everything out of whack. The fact it is snow (or whatever freezing precip it may be), only complicates and makes people anxious. Nobody would care if this was a springtime rain event.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 17, 2019 10:24:49 GMT -6
The 850mb low on the GFS rides down I-70. That's north of the ideal benchmark track.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 10:38:52 GMT -6
Yesterday the euro, gem, fv3, and icon had multiple runs of us getting 4-12".
And that's all gone today.
Except a thin band of 3-4" .
The way the models are handling the vorticity I can't envision the trough returning to the nuetral tilted closed look.
If I was a pro forecaster.
I'd probably tell the general public.
There is a high chance this ends up rain to cold and 1" or less for the entire metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 10:40:03 GMT -6
The 850mb low on the GFS rides down I-70. That's north of the ideal benchmark track. Well its not a cohesive low and it's sliding SE across MO before lifting ENE a bit. So it's not really a bad track. The GFS has been consistently struggling with mass field/QPF placements so I wouldn't worry too much about it. The EC/EPS has by far been the best model so far...as well as the GEM. I don't look at the FV3 much. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 10:41:16 GMT -6
Yesterday the euro, gem, fv3, and icon had multiple runs of us getting 4-12". And that's all gone today. Except a thin band of 3-4" . The way the models are handling the vorticity I can't envision the trough returning to the nuetral tilted closed look. If I was a pro forecaster. I'd probably tell the general public. There is a high chance this ends up rain to cold and 1" or less for the entire metro. That would be a terrible forecast...IMO. The potential for blowing and drifting on the backside could cause major impacts. Rain to 1" doesn't exactly portray that well. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 17, 2019 10:42:48 GMT -6
Yesterday the euro, gem, fv3, and icon had multiple runs of us getting 4-12". And that's all gone today. Except a thin band of 3-4" . The way the models are handling the vorticity I can't envision the trough returning to the nuetral tilted closed look. If I was a pro forecaster. I'd probably tell the general public. There is a high chance this ends up rain to cold and 1" or less for the entire metro. I think saying that is just as risky at this point as is saying higher snow totals...because if models do come in even somewhat differently later on and rain is not going to be the majority, people will say, "but you said..." |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2019 10:49:09 GMT -6
sref plumes are less than ideal at this stage of the game, damn.
Certainly a much more difficult forecast than last weekend.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 10:50:59 GMT -6
What are sref plums down to now for St. Louis?
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 17, 2019 10:52:10 GMT -6
I just drove to Jefferson City from Sullivan, some of the thickest and most consistent fog I've ever seen. 1/4mile vis at best. Temps 34-35 all the way. think now I have a good idea what it would be like to drive cheech and Chong's van....
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2019 10:52:42 GMT -6
Yesterday the euro, gem, fv3, and icon had multiple runs of us getting 4-12". And that's all gone today. Except a thin band of 3-4" . The way the models are handling the vorticity I can't envision the trough returning to the nuetral tilted closed look. If I was a pro forecaster. I'd probably tell the general public. There is a high chance this ends up rain to cold and 1" or less for the entire metro. That would be a terrible forecast...IMO. The potential for blowing and drifting on the backside could cause major impacts. Rain to 1" doesn't exactly portray that well. BRTN vs. FRIV Forecast Championship When: Now through Saturday Why: Facing off against opposition for the weekend storm! Verdict: TBA |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 10:52:53 GMT -6
I could see this being a 1-3” type storm now. Just my opinion, most models are tracking further north with all the features. Which keeps us all rain longer. There won’t be much snow left after rain, just some piles.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 10:55:24 GMT -6
sref plumes are less than ideal at this stage of the game, damn. Certainly a much more difficult forecast than last weekend. Really no clustering of the members at all. Not atypical of the SREFs at this range but certainly not helpful |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 10:57:41 GMT -6
I could see this being a 1-3” type storm now. Just my opinion, most models are tracking further north with all the features. Which keeps us all rain longer. There won’t be much snow left after rain, just some piles. I could see that...but a significant to major winter storm is just as likely if not more so. I'm more jazzed about this storm than the last...I may actually see heavy snow that lasts for more than a few minutes. And the backside blowing/drifting and flash freeze potential could make this one nasty...luckily it doesn't hit during rush hour this time around. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 10:59:54 GMT -6
I don't know what is more exciting, the battle between the models or the forecast battle between two of our most esteemed members!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 11:05:25 GMT -6
FV3 is pretty solid. Quincy to central IL gets hammered pretty good and it drops 2-4" across the metro. The winds on the backside look pretty strong to
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 11:09:35 GMT -6
Not to jump off the bandwagon for the weekend storm (which I still see 2”-5” possible)........but next weeks system doesn’t look to impressive at this timeframe or am I seeing it wrong.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 11:12:15 GMT -6
GEM has a good winter storm next week. Let's take one storm at a time
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 11:12:42 GMT -6
A gift from Fish...  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 11:12:54 GMT -6
I should have clarified that I would stress that it could easily end up that way.
I would still probably go with something like 1-3".
The GefS is still pretty solid.
There's just no room left for any further progressive/open wave trending at this point.
The models have all trended weaker and more progressive.
Yesterday at this time we had multiple models with 6-10" along I64/70.
Now only the gem has anything close to that and its literally nothing in IL and 2-3" in Mo.
And the gem has the system further North than the rest.
The GefS do show a mean towards a deformation zone at least.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 11:14:34 GMT -6
Yes , FV3 looks very much like the GEM, it would be nice to see the Euro come in similar
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 11:15:43 GMT -6
What is the gift? I don’t see anything
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 11:15:57 GMT -6
The ukmet is a complete miss
Maybe 1-2" for the far SE counties
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 17, 2019 11:19:03 GMT -6
A gift from Fish...  Nothing appears Chris. Is it the disappearing storm? Singing in the rain?
Options are endless LOL |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 17, 2019 11:19:42 GMT -6
Drying Cloths here! Come get your drying cloths! Hot and fresh, get them while they are hot. Can't toss something in the ring without one. Get your drying cloths!
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