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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 12:09:58 GMT -6
Looks like FISH is jumping on the 44/70 bandwagon...850mb is the best way to track a storm like this, IMO. That feels like te best compromise, imo. Agreed. After looking at some of today's data so far I still feel comfortable with my 5-8" forecast along 44/70 and 2-4/3-6" outside of that. If the TROWAL is weaker and/or banding doesn't develop then those higher amounts are shot. But I think the backside is going to be strong with this one...we'll see. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 12:13:20 GMT -6
This looks great...  so we shld see complere changeover to snow by noon on saturday is what this tells me.do you agree? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:15:07 GMT -6
Dr. No should be running
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 12:16:13 GMT -6
The Euro looks to have a good track and is colder. I can’t see its precipitation fields. Someone else chime in on amounts once the become available.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 12:16:22 GMT -6
That feels like te best compromise, imo. Agreed. After looking at some of today's data so far I still feel comfortable with my 5-8" forecast along 44/70 and 2-4/3-6" outside of that. If the TROWAL is weaker and/or banding doesn't develop then those higher amounts are shot. But I think the backside is going to be strong with this one...we'll see. Im midway bw 40 and 70 in st chuck county,which puts me in 5 to 8 with your ideas, but im going to stay conservative with my 2 to 4 until i see better consistency in the models. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 12:16:32 GMT -6
This looks great... so we shld see complere changeover to snow by noon on saturday is what this tells me.do you agree? I'd say so. That's the biggest question at this point for me...how quickly do we change over. Models have trended slightly warmer on the front end. Areas N/W of 44/70 may change over early Saturday AM...that would boost totals because the WAA wing looks pretty intense with potential for convection. Maybe dynamic cooling will come through and change it over sooner...that's always a tough call. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:17:34 GMT -6
The Euro is essentially a complete whiff.
Might be a couple Inches well North of 70 in the front end.
But Essentially no deformation zone
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 12:19:59 GMT -6
The Euro is essentially a complete whiff. Might be a couple Inches well North of 70 in the front end. But Essentially no deformation zone It has 2-4” in the metro and the northern counties getting 8+ |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 12:21:44 GMT -6
Look at hour 54 on the euro. It has a deformation zone right up 44 into the heart of the metro. It’s not overly strong but it’s there
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 12:24:37 GMT -6
Where are you seeing a whiff and no precipitation on the Euro Friv? Are you on a paysite with real weather charts ?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 12:26:03 GMT -6
Friv is doom and gloom today
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 12:26:43 GMT -6
Look at hour 54 on the euro. It has a deformation zone right up 44 into the heart of the metro. It’s not overly strong but it’s there It's slow in deepening the 700mb low after it shifts from the northern branch. 850 track is great though. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 12:27:11 GMT -6
Wonder what the meter looks like?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 17, 2019 12:29:18 GMT -6
Getting much brighter here. Almost looks like the sun has ideas about trying to make an appearance. Wasn't expecting that.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 12:30:05 GMT -6
2-4” is looking like a good forecast for the metro. When you combine that with the winds gusting to 35mph it’s going to be a pretty impactful system I think
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:30:11 GMT -6
Where are you seeing a whiff and no precipitation on the Euro Friv? Are you on a paysite with real weather charts ? Yeah. Snowstorm is right. Tho there is nothing from the backend. That all comes from the WAA. That's really unlikely. But hey you never know |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 12:30:16 GMT -6
Just a tough call... I could see several different outcomes.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 12:31:18 GMT -6
2-4” is looking like a good forecast for the metro. When you combine that with the winds gusting to 35mph it’s going to be a pretty impactful system I think That's how I would go right now... that is a "safe" forecast. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 12:31:33 GMT -6
Forget abt last weekend. New event consistently showing 2 to 4 or more for metro. More chances if snow coming up albeit relatively light. New pattern emerging. Some years we dont get anything close. Maybe expectations are too high.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2019 12:33:39 GMT -6
Forget abt last weekend. New event consistently showing 2 to 4 or more for metro. More chances if snow coming up albeit relatively light. New pattern emerging. Some years we dont get anything close. Maybe expectations are too high. Eh, we just feel we are due for a real solid winter... which we are. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 12:33:48 GMT -6
Friv I promise you there’s backend snow on the Euro for most of the area
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:33:49 GMT -6
When I say complete whiff it's because this has played out so many times like this.
We probably will see an inch or two at worst.
The track is great.
But it doesn't matter if there isn't sufficient lift.
And the euro is contaminated by the WAA bringing snow down to 64.
We never see that. Maybe BRTN could cash in.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:41:24 GMT -6
Friv I promise you there’s backend snow on the Euro for most of the area Yeah on the weather Bell maps I got the trial. It shows less than 2"in IL and South of 44 in no And the snow between 44/70 in MO is mostly from a changeover during the WAA. Hopefully the models swing back. But the euro 24 hours ago has a monster |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 12:42:19 GMT -6
RT just stated that "Report of 132 mph sustained wind with max gust to 164 mph at the summit of Mammoth Mountain" during the height of the storm overnight last night. Crazy!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 12:45:05 GMT -6
Probably a bad time to mention my impending winter storm watch...
I think this thing gives a general 2-5 inches. It's a slow move, so the potential deformation zone could just rake across the favored areas for several hours.
Certainly potential for a 5-8 band, but I wouldn't put it out there yet.
Also, clearly this storm will not be nearly as widespread in its generosity as the last one.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 12:46:31 GMT -6
Probably a bad time to mention my impending winter storm watch... I think this thing gives a general 2-5 inches. It's a slow move, so the potential deformation zone could just rake across the favored areas for several hours. Certainly potential for a 5-8 band, but I wouldn't put it out there yet. Also, clearly this storm will not be nearly as widespread in its generosity as the last one. Your forecast up there is so much easier than the one down here. I have a feeling that fgen band is going to be a beast for you |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 12:48:26 GMT -6
No body here really cares at all about Chicago weather
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 12:52:15 GMT -6
No body here really cares at all about Chicago weather It was a joke lol. Hence the paragraph of analysis about STL metro weather impacts. Feel free to block me. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 12:52:23 GMT -6
Yeah I'm being a downer.
The GefS looks good.
But when you actually look at the individual members.
It's hard to find how it comes to that.
Ratios should help us tho
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 17, 2019 12:57:23 GMT -6
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