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Post by jeepers on Jan 17, 2019 12:58:23 GMT -6
I wouldn't just be thinking about freezing fog tonight, I'd be worried about black ice. The roads are covered with snow melt out here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 12:59:19 GMT -6
Also worth noting that the 12z euro remains wound up for next week's potential storm.
It might just be a model bias, but interesting to look at since it's in the day 5-7 range and not fantasy.
We shall see.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 13:05:05 GMT -6
Also worth noting that the 12z euro remains wound up for next week's potential storm. It might just be a model bias, but interesting to look at since it's in the day 5-7 range and not fantasy. We shall see. It has support from the GEM, though the GEM has us in its sights whereas the EURO would nail you. Both GFS's have it phasing way out east and the ICON almost gets us. Lots more potential with that one if it comes to fruition. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 17, 2019 13:18:14 GMT -6
Is another watch/warning scenario looking pretty bleak right now for the weekend?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 13:20:06 GMT -6
I would not rule out a watch at some point due to uncertainty but conditions are favorable. Most likely though advisory issue tomorrow at some point. They can always upgrade to a warning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 13:20:13 GMT -6
Is another watch/warning scenario looking pretty bleak right now for the weekend? I suspect a WSwatch will be hoisted with the afternoon or evening update for the counties along/N of 44/70. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 13:20:54 GMT -6
NWS just posted on twitter...
"Still recovering from last weekend's #winter storm? Take some time today/tonight to re-stock your preparedness kits and get ready for more winter weather this weekend. #stlwx #midmowx #mowx #ilwx"
Included a great picture on suggested items to stock up on.
EDIT: Sorry I cannot include pictures from work.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 17, 2019 13:24:12 GMT -6
Is another watch/warning scenario looking pretty bleak right now for the weekend? I suspect a WSwatch will be hoisted with the afternoon or evening update for the counties along/N of 44/70. Are you thinking that based on amounts and blowing/drifting potential? Wouldn't think the current amounts alone being shown right now would warrant a watch. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 13:27:01 GMT -6
I suspect a WSwatch will be hoisted with the afternoon or evening update for the counties along/N of 44/70. Are you thinking that based on amounts and blowing/drifting potential? Wouldn't think the current amounts alone being shown right now would warrant a watch. A watch is like a tornado watch. It can be resended if needed. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 13:29:05 GMT -6
NWS just posted on twitter... "Still recovering from last weekend's #winter storm? Take some time today/tonight to re-stock your preparedness kits and get ready for more winter weather this weekend. #stlwx #midmowx #mowx #ilwx" Included a great picture on suggested items to stock up on. EDIT: Sorry I cannot include pictures from work.  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 13:29:35 GMT -6
Thank you Tilawn!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 13:37:21 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 13:37:57 GMT -6
I could see one north of I70 possibly
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 13:39:32 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 13:40:39 GMT -6
I wouldn't just be thinking about freezing fog tonight, I'd be worried about black ice. The roads are covered with snow melt out here. A good point about refreeze of snow melt. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 13:56:19 GMT -6
EURO definitely struggles to develop anything significant with the deformation as the storm is pulling away. The mid-level low seems to be in a state of flux as it moves through on some runs...that does cast some doubt for sure. But we could easily see models go back to "kaboom" in the next couple cycles. And many still wrap it up nicely.
One thing I've noticed is that most models develop a bullseye of QPF Friday night just N of the Metro along the nose of the LLJ and leading edge of the developing TROWAL. I suspect this is tied to convective enhancement and if that changes over to snow it could be 2-3"/hr stuff. If that occurs and the deformation comes together across that same area the higher totals will be realized...6"+. That's what I'm banking on, but I will admit the bust potential is higher than normal. Hopefully tonight's runs will clear some questions up.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 14:09:35 GMT -6
18z name has potential through 33.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 14:19:14 GMT -6
18z nam snowfall map through hour 42 looks like a lobster claw lol.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 14:30:42 GMT -6
18Z hires nam goes bezerk
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 14:30:42 GMT -6
Hi res NAM looks like its going to sweep a stout deformation band through the area
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 14:32:39 GMT -6
We are getting there folks
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 14:33:02 GMT -6
Can we lock in that Hi Res NAM run?
Thats perfect
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 14:33:09 GMT -6
Warning criteria on hi res
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 17, 2019 14:33:34 GMT -6
Just a tough call... I could see several different outcomes. I haven't posted much, but I've been checking in everyday. Personally I haven't been too excited about this storm. And your comment here is why. Just too many outcomes could happen. I'm so afraid of being letdown. I'm so wanting a snow on snow this weekend. Would be awesome! Hoping it doesn't all melt by then. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 14:37:55 GMT -6
There might even be some thundersnow in that Hi Res NAM run. Sim radar has a very convective look and the soundings show some instability
Man I hope its correct
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 14:42:35 GMT -6
There might even be some thundersnow in that Hi Res NAM run. Sim radar has a very convective look and the soundings show some instability Man I hope its correct Lapse rates well above 7*C/km
Just off the HiRes... this would be impactful
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Post by lizard7151971 on Jan 17, 2019 14:44:49 GMT -6
I don't pretend to be an expert, but the west is getting slammed in the mountains, and they are predicting the East is going to get slammed too. I think we should get something, but all the big chain weather channels are pretty much writing us off, with just a little bit.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 14:44:53 GMT -6
There might even be some thundersnow in that Hi Res NAM run. Sim radar has a very convective look and the soundings show some instability Man I hope its correct Lapse rates well above 7*C/km
Just off the HiRes... this would be impactful
Similar to Feb 2007. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2019 14:58:37 GMT -6
Fantastic. And during day time!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 15:03:15 GMT -6
Watch is up for our far northern county. Afd speaks of 1 to 3 for metro so tomorrow we may get advisory.
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