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Post by snowjunky on Jan 21, 2019 11:51:21 GMT -6
What is the timing on when any moisture could be falling tomorrow?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2019 12:00:57 GMT -6
Euro has low approaching KC
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2019 12:03:11 GMT -6
Euro has low approaching KC Ukmet is on its own. Guess it gets tossed for now.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 21, 2019 13:54:23 GMT -6
I just noticed the average hi and low temps started going up on Jan 18. Ugh.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2019 14:04:44 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen suggests that the wintry pattern we have been in since the PV split could last 4-8 more weeks.
He is also skeptical that the MJO is currently materially impacting the pattern across NA.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2019 14:05:19 GMT -6
I just noticed the average hi and low temps started going up on Jan 18. Ugh. Euro shows near record cold next week. I think we are good.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2019 14:22:05 GMT -6
I just noticed the average hi and low temps started going up on Jan 18. Ugh. Euro shows near record cold next week. I think we are good. It has -30F temps creeping into the northern counties next Wednesday morning
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2019 14:24:34 GMT -6
Euro shows near record cold next week. I think we are good. It has -30F temps creeping into the northern counties next Wednesday morning That would be tough to do unless there's a snow pack of several inches on the ground.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2019 14:25:55 GMT -6
It has -30F temps creeping into the northern counties next Wednesday morning That would be tough to do unless there's a snow pack of several inches on the ground. HA! I knew that was going to be the next post! I almost posted it myself. I think we had the subzero snowpack myth dispelled a couple of years ago when we went subzero without snow. I'll give you minus 30, but not subzero.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2019 14:29:10 GMT -6
It has -30F temps creeping into the northern counties next Wednesday morning That would be tough to do unless there's a snow pack of several inches on the ground. Its simulating those temps with 3-6" of snow depth on the ground at the time
Metro "only" gets down to -10 to -15 with 2" on the ground
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 21, 2019 14:55:59 GMT -6
Just a reminder KSTL got below zero three times last winter, including an overall low of -6F, each time with just a trace of snow depth.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 21, 2019 15:07:20 GMT -6
Northern counties still have a 3-8” snowpack in most places outside of drifted areas. The rain is looking less problematic as we get closer. I’d say the pack probably survives and then gets refreshed late next week.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2019 15:09:21 GMT -6
Moderators... see your private messages ASAP please.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2019 15:18:26 GMT -6
That would be tough to do unless there's a snow pack of several inches on the ground. HA! I knew that was going to be the next post! I almost posted it myself. I think we had the subzero snowpack myth dispelled a couple of years ago when we went subzero without snow. I'll give you minus 30, but not subzero. I know this area can get down to -5, maybe even -10 without a snowpack. Especially if there's enough of one just to the north and pretty much all the way to the Arctic. But -30 would be a lot tougher with out snow in place.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2019 15:22:13 GMT -6
HA! I knew that was going to be the next post! I almost posted it myself. I think we had the subzero snowpack myth dispelled a couple of years ago when we went subzero without snow. I'll give you minus 30, but not subzero. I know this area can get down to -5, maybe even -10 without a snowpack. Especially if there's enough of one just to the north and pretty much all the way to the Arctic. But -30 would be a lot tougher with out snow in place. You definitely will need sub 500 thickness just to get to the -10s without snow.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 21, 2019 15:34:17 GMT -6
Oh honey, that just stinks. Do you have help around you? Family that you can stay with? Yeah. Parents came to pick me up last night. Going to be staying in stl for a couple weeks. That's really good. I would also be looking at that post surgery. I'd have them on call for longer than you want them to, just in case this is more involved than planned. Beyond discomfort and all of that, the logistics can be daunting. You need to worry about dealing with the injury and let others worry about everything else right now. Best quickest advice beyond the medical, get a shower chair/hand held shower device if you don't have one, for the tub (Walgreens or Amazon) Yeah, you can stand on one leg but that is exhausting and not safe, especially if you are taking narcs for pain at any point. If you have a big bathroom, put an extra chair in main area so you can sit/dress if you need to (shaving, tooth brushing, etc.) If you cannot remove the splint (dunno), put your leg in a kitchen garbage bag/ sealed at the top with micropore tape (clear plastic that tears without scissors from Walgreens) and then hang it outside of the tub. If you end up casted after surgery, do get the gortex extra covering. (Any wet weather is problematic without it.) If you have a recliner, you're golden (leg elevation). Two stiff pillows with shams off of a bed/couch lengthwise will do otherwise. Get rid of any area rug that slides anywhere, and have them clear paths to main areas. This includes the bathroom. Decrease risk of tripping/slippage anywhere, including near doorways outside. Even if you're at the table to eat, you need to elevate that leg. Any small sturdy item will do. (Can even flip over an empty garbage can/box/whatever. Just keep it from hanging down for extended lengths of time. Consider avoiding long drives for same reason. Once you can bear weight, everything gets easier. Long term, it's all about being a boy scout with the PT program. Short term, it's about following the elevation program. Resist cheating with any of it because of frustration/boredom. The point is to get better and be permanently healed, not dealing with potential extended problemos. This totally sucks but the pony in this is the fact that it's your left leg. You'll be driving a lot sooner than if it was your right. Tell your parents that most offices/hospitals have wheelchairs staged inside of facilities for appointments. Have them double park, come get you into the chair, and then travel around the place is a lot easier. Do this until you're truly strong and mobile as some of those places are large and you don't realize how far you have to go until you're on crutches. Sorry that this happened to you. The good thing is that you're young and healthy, you'll bounce back from this. But have to say that this is more proof that ice is evil. --- Jeepers, aka me, BSN, RN as well as being a mother to two kids who've either broken an ankle or gotten nasty sprains from sports, and has no ability not to give unasked for advice in these situations. Mea culpa.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 21, 2019 15:49:21 GMT -6
Moderators... see your private messages ASAP please. [whisper]what do you think Chris said to the moderators?[/whisper]
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 21, 2019 16:03:27 GMT -6
Moderators... see your private messages ASAP please. [whisper]what do you think Chris said to the moderators?[/whisper] Probably talking about opening a new thread dedicated to ankle injuries
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 21, 2019 16:05:07 GMT -6
Tomorrow the energy gets a little separated and energy coming out of the base of the trough helps spark some precip in the cold sector.
Might get a quick inch if it plays right.
Some of the GFS ensemble members have 1-2" inches.
Also the NE looks to have no more even modest winter events until after February 1st.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2019 16:10:39 GMT -6
Boy that Clipper on Saturday looks pretty stout even this far out. ICON goes ballistic with it, and the GFS shows a decent little system then as well. That puppy with even 15:1 ratios could easily put down several inches somewhere in or near the area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2019 16:18:33 GMT -6
Boy that Clipper on Saturday looks pretty stout even this far out. ICON goes ballistic with it, and the GFS shows a decent little system then as well. That puppy with even 15:1 ratios could easily put down several inches somewhere in or near the area. Yeah that one has got my attention...the -10*C isotherm @ h85 bisects the CWA which is a good signal for clipper snowfall at this range.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2019 16:29:30 GMT -6
Boy that Clipper on Saturday looks pretty stout even this far out. ICON goes ballistic with it, and the GFS shows a decent little system then as well. That puppy with even 15:1 ratios could easily put down several inches somewhere in or near the area. Yeah that one has got my attention...the -10*C isotherm @ h85 bisects the CWA which is a good signal for clipper snowfall at this range. -10c was an excellent tool yesterday!
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 21, 2019 16:32:58 GMT -6
Obviously I'm disappointed the Patriots made it to the Superbowl..again. My only consolation is that it has been a rough season snow-wise for Boston. I think they're sitting at like 1.8" of snow so far.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 21, 2019 16:33:51 GMT -6
Is Freezing Drizzle still in play tomorrow morning? Looks like NWS took any mention our for the Metro.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 21, 2019 16:39:17 GMT -6
Moderators... see your private messages ASAP please. [whisper]what do you think Chris said to the moderators?[/whisper] Probably talking 'bout you! LOL
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2019 17:11:25 GMT -6
A sneaky weather event needs to be watched for Tuesday morning. This is definitely NOT a slam dunk nor is it a sure thing. However, there are enough indicators on the table that I feel it is worth drawing your attention to the possibility…so you can decide if you want to get up a little early tomorrow morning to see if anything is happening. I don’t want folks to be surprised if this actually comes to fruition. Temperatures have leveled off in the mid-20s today…with various degrees of clouds…mixed with some sunshine. After low temperatures dipped into the single digits this morning…the ground is now frozen solid almost everywhere. That is important for what may happen tomorrow morning. Low level moisture and warm air is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico (see satellite image). As this moisture surges north it will be pushed over the top of a very shallow cold layer parked over the vast snowfield that now covers much of eastern Missouri into Illinois. This is a recipe for the development of patchy drizzle around sunrise Tuesday. The air temperatures at that time will have warmed into the upper 20s…and the ground will still be frozen. That means if and where drizzle begins to fall…it stands a good chance of freezing on contact to untreated surfaces until temperatures warm above freezing. So…what does this mean in terms of a forecast? For the areas in brighter peach…I expect at least a few pockets of freezing drizzle to develop around 6am and last until about 10a…when temperatures warm above freezing. Some roads, parking lots and sidewalks may become icy for a brief time. The freezing drizzle will start a little later further north…and last from about 8am to noon. THIS IS NOT A MAJOR ICE STORM…THERE WILL NOT BE HUGE ICICLES OR POWER CONCERNS. THIS IS JUST A HEADS UP THAT SOME SNEAKY SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AM RUSH TOMORROW. I’M NOT TRYING TO HYPE THIS…JUST MAKE YOU AWARE OF THE POSIBILITY. Temperatures will warm above freezing everywhere by early afternoon…and the bulk of the more substantial precipitation that falls during the afternoon will fall as light rain showers.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2019 17:34:27 GMT -6
Moderators... see your private messages ASAP please. [whisper]what do you think Chris said to the moderators?[/whisper] [whisper] Maybe that's why my ears have been ringing. I took a shower last month [/whisper]
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Post by REB on Jan 21, 2019 17:36:13 GMT -6
Thank you. My chimney sweep might have a fun morning getting here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2019 17:45:35 GMT -6
The good news for tomorrow AM is that most roads are caked with salt...slick spots should be spotty but definitely a possibility.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 21, 2019 18:03:22 GMT -6
Yeah. Parents came to pick me up last night. Going to be staying in stl for a couple weeks. That's really good. I would also be looking at that post surgery. I'd have them on call for longer than you want them to, just in case this is more involved than planned. Beyond discomfort and all of that, the logistics can be daunting. You need to worry about dealing with the injury and let others worry about everything else right now. Best quickest advice beyond the medical, get a shower chair/hand held shower device if you don't have one, for the tub (Walgreens or Amazon) Yeah, you can stand on one leg but that is exhausting and not safe, especially if you are taking narcs for pain at any point. If you have a big bathroom, put an extra chair in main area so you can sit/dress if you need to (shaving, tooth brushing, etc.) If you cannot remove the splint (dunno), put your leg in a kitchen garbage bag/ sealed at the top with micropore tape (clear plastic that tears without scissors from Walgreens) and then hang it outside of the tub. If you end up casted after surgery, do get the gortex extra covering. (Any wet weather is problematic without it.) If you have a recliner, you're golden (leg elevation). Two stiff pillows with shams off of a bed/couch lengthwise will do otherwise. Get rid of any area rug that slides anywhere, and have them clear paths to main areas. This includes the bathroom. Decrease risk of tripping/slippage anywhere, including near doorways outside. Even if you're at the table to eat, you need to elevate that leg. Any small sturdy item will do. (Can even flip over an empty garbage can/box/whatever. Just keep it from hanging down for extended lengths of time. Consider avoiding long drives for same reason. Once you can bear weight, everything gets easier. Long term, it's all about being a boy scout with the PT program. Short term, it's about following the elevation program. Resist cheating with any of it because of frustration/boredom. The point is to get better and be permanently healed, not dealing with potential extended problemos. This totally sucks but the pony in this is the fact that it's your left leg. You'll be driving a lot sooner than if it was your right. Tell your parents that most offices/hospitals have wheelchairs staged inside of facilities for appointments. Have them double park, come get you into the chair, and then travel around the place is a lot easier. Do this until you're truly strong and mobile as some of those places are large and you don't realize how far you have to go until you're on crutches. Sorry that this happened to you. The good thing is that you're young and healthy, you'll bounce back from this. But have to say that this is more proof that ice is evil. --- Jeepers, aka me, BSN, RN as well as being a mother to two kids who've either broken an ankle or gotten nasty sprains from sports, and has no ability not to give unasked for advice in these situations. Mea culpa. Knee scooter!!!! Put an air horn on it. I tore my ACL a couple years ago, no weight on it for a good month. Baths became my friend, I could not stand up long enough to shower. Listen to your PT, do what they say, and tell them if you have any pain or problems. Good luck with the surgery, and make sure you let your parents know how much you appreciate them.
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