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Post by mmarkillie82 on Mar 2, 2019 0:29:20 GMT -6
Its pretty clear the direction this one is trending. Just give me enough to cover the ground with some blowing snow Dont write it off yet. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 0:34:07 GMT -6
I'm not writing it off, but each model cycle that comes out things look drier and drier
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Post by RyanD on Mar 2, 2019 0:39:48 GMT -6
It is still over the Pacific isn't it? Has it made landfall yet? I don't trust qpf that much until we get reliable data ingested into the models. I think 3-5" south of 70 still looks solid.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 1:54:45 GMT -6
After the EPS showed 7 inches the other day, it now has 1. 1 inch. 1.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 2, 2019 2:25:49 GMT -6
It’s pretty amazing at how poor these models are performing.... it’s not like the low went north or south and they were wrong about placement.... they showed a storm with 3x the QPF just 24 hours ago
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 2:54:59 GMT -6
Now the hires NAM comes in looking good right up 44 into the metro. 3-5 inches
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 3:57:51 GMT -6
winter weather advisory. Surprisingly still calling for around 4" here
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 4:30:08 GMT -6
Well I mostly feel for the Mets. Even 2-3" would make me plenty happy. But the Mets started with 6" metro wide and we might end up with 1-2". But the vorticity is pretty solid so I think this will still produce 3-5" for most of us. I have had 15-16" this season and I am pretty grateful to have gotten that. So yeah this might end up a little disappointing. But most of you guys have had 5-10" more than I have. 3 or more was my starting point...then capped that at 3 to 6. So I dont think you can say all mets went 6" areawide. You cannot ignore the low end of a range. It is there for a reason. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 5:00:00 GMT -6
After a quick review of the data... I am going to hold at 3 to 6....but emphasize the greater likelihood is for lower end of that range...especially from Mississippi River east. I also must acknowledge that my confidence in those numbers is lower than yesterday. If trends at 12z and 18z continue as they have in the last two runs...then I will most certainly consider cutting the numbers. But right now...with just under 24 hours to go before onset...I ambbn ok staying put a little while longer. I do not want to cut numbers only to have to bump them back up again. Steady as she goes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 5:46:56 GMT -6
Steady as she goes with the winter storm forecast for late tonight into Sunday morning. Just a quick update post as I get ready to head over to Scott AFB this morning... The big picture remains the same...snow is likely to develop across the region after midnight tonight and continue through around midday Sunday. The peak snowfall will be from 4am to 9am...with several inches of accumulation expected. There remains high confidence that it is going to snow...and that snow will accumulate. However, some new data has caused me to lose some confidence on the high end of my forecast range. Because the new data is not conclusive...and we are still almost 12 hours from the main impact of the event...I still have time to get another round of new data in later this morning...and based on those trends i MAY MAY make some adjustments to my snowfall forecast. But for now, I'm holding steady with a range of 3 to 6 inches. As always...you need to remember the range..not just the top number. I say that because in this case...my confidence in the 3" part of that range is much higher than the 6" side of that range. Fluctuations in the model data is not at all unusual...as most of you know. And that is where the "art of forecasting" really comes into play. My technique has always been to stay as consistent as possible and only make very small/minor course corrections when necessary. Right now, I do not think a course correction is necessary in our viewing area. I did shave down the 3 to 6 band east of our viewing area....over far eastern Illinois into Indiana...where dry air and fast movement look to be a bigger factor and will limit that area to more of a 1-3 type snow.  |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Mar 2, 2019 6:19:09 GMT -6
Was looking for the bar chart type that I’ve seen before, but found this  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 6:30:15 GMT -6
I really like those probability of Exceeding graphics… as I think it helps spell out potential options to the public. Giving a single number as a forecast is clean, but it is almost always wrong and can give the wrong impression of confidence and blind the public to other important possible outcomes.
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 7:16:59 GMT -6
My first prediction for Ballwin is 2.5" total. My next prediction will be posted after the forthcoming model data has been disseminated. Then I will update it again after the off hour runs, and yet again after tonight's models run..maybe a tweaking to the numbers as the event occurs. I am fairly confident my totals predicted will be very close to the realized outcome of this impending weather situation.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 7:21:55 GMT -6
Lolol
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Mar 2, 2019 7:22:42 GMT -6
Oh, no, just realized I really do need bread & eggs.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 7:24:31 GMT -6
Short range models are trending good for the metro
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 2, 2019 7:29:33 GMT -6
My first prediction for Ballwin is 2.5" total. My next prediction will be posted after the forthcoming model data has been disseminated. Then I will update it again after the off hour runs, and yet again after tonight's models run. Maybe an tweaking to the numbers as the event occurs. I am fairly confident my totals predicted will be very close to the realized outcome of this impending weather situation. Have you been hacked?!?! 😂 |
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 7:34:15 GMT -6
Lol..I don't think I have been hacked! Why would you say that? 😁
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Post by REB on Mar 2, 2019 7:43:23 GMT -6
Was looking for the bar chart type that I’ve seen before, but found this I really like this. Where’d you find it? |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 2, 2019 8:13:22 GMT -6
These are the forecasts i really hate. Storm puts alot of snow down in Western/Central MO then fades....only to ramp up again in Eastern KY and so forth in the East.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 8:16:23 GMT -6
Nam shifted quite north. This may be a 70 storm
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 8:21:20 GMT -6
Here we go with a.new forecast every 25 minutes
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Post by rb1108 on Mar 2, 2019 8:28:21 GMT -6
Snowman, NWS has you in the highest totals (4-6") still. They must not know of the Union Snowhole....the hole has been filled this winter.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2019 8:29:15 GMT -6
The NAM did exactly as expected. Jog north. Metro gets 4-5. Desert wasteland gets 1-2.
I'll be the jackpot of every rain storm that rolls through for the next 6 months, though. You can take that one to the bank.
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 8:30:33 GMT -6
Given this new information, I am raising my prediction to four inches total in Ballwin. Stayed tuned for further updates...
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2019 8:39:59 GMT -6
I'll still say 2-4 IMBY. All things considered, we've done decently this year. A year or two ago, I wouldn't be surprised if we missed out completely.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 2, 2019 8:40:15 GMT -6
Oh, no, just realized I really do need bread & eggs. It's our regular shopping day, too. Wonder how much of a nut farm the stores are going to be. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 2, 2019 8:42:13 GMT -6
Pbc whats your latest thinking?
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Mar 2, 2019 8:44:37 GMT -6
Pbc whats your latest thinking? He's checking to make sure his elevation hasn't changed before he updates.... |
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 8:45:50 GMT -6
That is unclear at the moment Beaker. At what time is the next numerical weather model's output made public? There was some tectonic movement under my house in St.P....er,I mean Ballwin, last night, so I suspect I am even further above all of you than I was before.
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