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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 8:55:36 GMT -6
I'm currently at 5280 feet in st.peters lol
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Post by mchafin on Mar 2, 2019 8:57:58 GMT -6
A comment was made about not seeing anything that would cause the snow totals to trail off as the storm moved east. A one word answer was given, confluence. Can someone explain so I can stop pretending that it’s not going to trail off as it heads east?
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 9:06:32 GMT -6
Rdps is better too I think 3 to 6 is perfect forecast. Now yes I am planning on changing it 30 to 35 times in the next 2 hours lol
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 2, 2019 9:08:02 GMT -6
Milky sunshine!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 9:10:28 GMT -6
Oh, no, just realized I really do need bread & eggs. My wife said same thing yesterday...we are even out of milk! |
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Post by mchafin on Mar 2, 2019 9:10:48 GMT -6
Rdps is better too I think 3 to 6 is perfect forecast. Now yes I am planning on changing it 30 to 35 times in the next 2 hours lol For the love of God, stop. It’s not funny. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 9:11:58 GMT -6
Oops ok I shall behave sorry.
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Post by scmhack on Mar 2, 2019 9:14:31 GMT -6
Rdps is better too I think 3 to 6 is perfect forecast. Now yes I am planning on changing it 30 to 35 times in the next 2 hours lol For the love of God, stop. It’s not funny. Nor are all of the damn elevation jokes but y'all keep making those too |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 2, 2019 9:15:15 GMT -6
My understanding is when two jet streaks come together, robbing lift...thats confluence to me.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 2, 2019 9:16:24 GMT -6
Oh, no, just realized I really do need bread & eggs. My wife said same thing yesterday...we are even out of milk! No French toast for you! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 9:17:10 GMT -6
Several factors for the snowfall to tail of a bit further east.
Dry air/moisture depletion. This event will be driven almost entirely by pacific moisture...a new source of moisture does not really get involved until further east...so system is drying out a bit.
850 low becomes more diffuse as it races east...the contribution to our snow from the 850mb low seems pretty limited. I think midlevel processes are more important to us along I.70
Confluence aloft shunting system and forcing more southeast with time...and faster. Word of caution with confluence...it can also enhance mid level front and frontal forcing...resulting in a narrow band of heavy snow.
The 12z data so far makes me think I am probably ok where I am at still. But I need to get the whole 12z pkg.
The trend for most of the seaso has been for these central Pac systems to be wetter than modeled.
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 2, 2019 9:17:15 GMT -6
A comment was made about not seeing anything that would cause the snow totals to trail off as the storm moved east. A one word answer was given, confluence. Can someone explain so I can stop pretending that it’s not going to trail off as it heads east? Including a mean flow and also horizontal stretching deformation creates a confluent flow. For example, a confluent flow (confluence) will group together a zonal temperature gradient as parcels move downstream or to the east. Think of it as two equal length wind vectors going toward each other. While, think of convergence as decreasing length straight line wind vectors. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 2, 2019 9:18:11 GMT -6
Rdps is better too I think 3 to 6 is perfect forecast. Now yes I am planning on changing it 30 to 35 times in the next 2 hours lol For the love of God, stop. It’s not funny. Yeah... I am about done with the middle school stuff. I have neither the time nor patience to be tested with this. |
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 2, 2019 9:18:27 GMT -6
Oh, no, just realized I really do need bread & eggs. My wife said same thing yesterday...we are even out of milk! Chris You should go in to the supermarket and pick up bread, milk, and eggs today......that should cause extreme panic mainly because the weatherman is picking up the dreaded snow storm items!! 😂😂😂 |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2019 9:21:59 GMT -6
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Post by REB on Mar 2, 2019 9:22:54 GMT -6
Aren't you all glad that I don't make forecasts for my back yard!!!!
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Post by jeepers on Mar 2, 2019 9:22:55 GMT -6
Don't forget the bacon! If you're going to do french toast, for God's sake you need bacon.
I actually have to go to pick up a few things, I always enjoy seeing a decimated bread aisle. It's like ZOMG, it's going to snow three inches, I need to eat 42 sandwiches! And donuts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 9:33:00 GMT -6
NAM looks pretty reasonable...this definitely isn't a huge storm but should have plenty of impacts with the wind. Still liking 2-3" IMBY and 4-6" for the metro and points W/SW leaning towards the lower end outside of any banded structures.
I just want enough to get some blowing and drifting going and get that "pure winter" look...is that too much to ask?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 9:42:26 GMT -6
I just want enough to get some blowing and drifting going and get that "pure winter" look...is that too much to ask? Well this is St. Louis, so yes lol |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Mar 2, 2019 9:46:17 GMT -6
Oops ok I shall behave sorry. I will say it. The last person that acted like this was fairly and harshly criticized for his behavior on this forum. It is a privilege to be a contributing part of this forum and not a right. Chris has been kind enough to provide knowledgeable people a place to discuss patterns, model explanations, and provide reports. Not be a place to just throw up random numbers that in most cases, have no scientific value. I do NOT have a degree in meterology, nor do I pretend to. So I discuss what I know and make reports. I leave the forecasting to the people here that have a deeper understanding of things and can take a deeper look at things without having to deal with public criticism.
Here is some sound advice, want to talk about model changes and comparisons of model to model, time frame to time frame, go for it. Otherwise, let the people in the know provide the accumulation forecasts.
Chris has a lot on his mind right now, respect him and his forum. He deserves the utmost respect and I am privileged to be a member of this page. But, I also know my place.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 9:48:59 GMT -6
Our good friend the RGEM is coming in wetter
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Mar 2, 2019 9:53:03 GMT -6
I think the thing that will make this impactful is the cold that is coming after it. A few inches followed by near zero temps and winds is more impactful than a big wet typical March snow imo
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 9:54:25 GMT -6
12z FV3  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 9:57:04 GMT -6
You can go ahead and lock in that dry bubble over my house...it's laughable how many models have shown that.
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Post by RyanD on Mar 2, 2019 10:03:43 GMT -6
12z FV3 That looks really realistic especially because it is showing that bubble of less snow over Marissa lol |
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Post by REB on Mar 2, 2019 10:05:32 GMT -6
I realize this is several hours after it happened but did anyone mention change from winter watch to advisory? I didn't see it mentioned on here.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 2, 2019 10:07:14 GMT -6
Thank God I woke up to this board having a decent attitude this morning.
1. Chris - you are right. My post was specifically referring to the NWS initial forecast. Thankfully, things look relatively close to that.
1A. Either way your forecast and then your tweak has been consistent and spot on.
2. I know everyone at times has reasons to be "triggered" over this hobby.
But today isn't that day. This storm has potential to lay down 4-6" right through the
Immediate metro.
Some of the models are drier and have 2-3". Which is still a solid storm.
If this place gets whiny I am definitely out until next time.
The side MO side where 20-25" has fallen is going to get the most.
We have had 15-17" in Belleville.
After this event places over the SW 1/3rd where "MEH" is might have close to double of what SWIL has gotten.
Lastly it sucks that we have at least one member who clearly fabricates his reports.
Believe me the constant repetitive pulled out of his bleep posts are annoying.
The lying tho fabricating backyard observations I
Is brutal.
I really think we should try the post limit idea.
Because he will push things to far and get banned. And we are in control of ourselves up to
working civilized manner.
Some members of this community are not and it's not their fault.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2019 10:09:49 GMT -6
I like where the models are , a nice band of 3-4” along and south of I70 many of dry models have come in much wetter. It looks like a 8-10 hour event. With most snow falling in a 5-6 hour period. I’m just glad that didn’t shift south and trend dryer
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 2, 2019 10:13:30 GMT -6
I didn’t think I clearly fabricated my reports
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 2, 2019 10:16:44 GMT -6
I didn’ Think I clearly fabricated my reports Since you are part omnipotent weather Demi-god. I think you get a pass by mother nature. |
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