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Post by cozpregon on Mar 2, 2019 10:18:54 GMT -6
It was the clearly part I was afraid of you noticing
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 2, 2019 10:21:45 GMT -6
Our good friend the RGEM is coming in wetter So is the GGEM |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2019 10:23:46 GMT -6
GGEM looks great all good today
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Post by dschreib on Mar 2, 2019 10:25:36 GMT -6
12z FV3  That looks really realistic especially because it is showing that bubble of less snow over Marissa lol That map is PERFECT!! |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Mar 2, 2019 10:28:40 GMT -6
It was thinking of y’all down where nobody lives That looks really realistic especially because it is showing that bubble of less snow over Marissa lol That map is PERFECT!! |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2019 10:29:34 GMT -6
Given this new information, I am raising my prediction to four inches total in Ballwin. Stayed tuned for further updates... And I continue rolling on the floor laughing because I always try and imitate GC's voice when you post because of your Avatar. "Tonight's forecast, dark, it will remain dark throughout the night, with scattered, intermittent light towards morning."  |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 2, 2019 10:31:15 GMT -6
I busted out laughing at that last exchange.
Anyway, I'm going to be super busy today...coaching my son's basketball game, going to a wedding, going out to eat this evening, and then finishing up with the St. Louis Ambush soccer game tonight so I'll be watching this storm from the sidelines today.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2019 10:32:15 GMT -6
Models continue to show winter continuing for at least another 7-10 days.
Probably a chance of snow between the metro and Chicago on Thursday/Friday before a powerful low comes through next weekend with all modes of weather possible.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 2, 2019 10:37:07 GMT -6
That looks really realistic especially because it is showing that bubble of less snow over Marissa lol That map is PERFECT!! Hole right over Marissa! Haha. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 2, 2019 10:58:53 GMT -6
Hole right over Marissa! Haha. We are the new Union lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 11:03:00 GMT -6
Models continue to show winter continuing for at least another 7-10 days. Probably a chance of snow between the metro and Chicago on Thursday/Friday before a powerful low comes through next weekend with all modes of weather possible. I would say there's one or two more snow chances at least before the pattern breaks...an overrunning event on the backside of the retreating modified arctic airmass towards Thurs/Fri and then an ejecting, potentially closed upper low this weekend with some confluence still in place across the lakes and low heights over the top. It definitely looks like a pattern that holds some potential. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Mar 2, 2019 11:17:38 GMT -6
Lastly it sucks that we have at least one member who clearly fabricates his reports. Up until the 0.5 on the BBQ pit during the flizzard a week or two ago, I was going to comment that the reports were always just plausible enough to not be discounted out of hand...but always somehow a little deeper, wetter, drier, hotter, colder or windier than anywhere else. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 2, 2019 11:18:00 GMT -6
With the epo and nao heading strongly positive in the mid term, I think this will be our last shot. Next weekend is a rainer which we do not need.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 2, 2019 11:38:50 GMT -6
Given this new information, I am raising my prediction to four inches total in Ballwin. Stayed tuned for further updates... And I continue rolling on the floor laughing because I always try and imitate GC's voice when you post because of your Avatar. "Tonight's forecast, dark, it will remain dark throughout the night, with scattered, intermittent light towards morning." The hippie dippy weatherman with the hippie dippy weather. One of my other favorites from the same bit - Cooking grits. |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2019 11:50:31 GMT -6
I like the look of the hrrr and rap
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 2, 2019 12:10:03 GMT -6
RAP did very well earlier this week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 12:32:28 GMT -6
After getting a good look at this mornings data two things stand out...models have definitely shown a 30-50mi north shift and the WAA/isentropic lift has trended weaker across S MO/IL. Models are focusing this event along I-70 now where the best mid-level frontogenesis exists. This weakens with time as the shortwave becomes increasingly sheared...models barely even close this off at 850mb any longer indicating a weaker system overall...hence the lower QPF output the last couple runs. That should result in lower wind speeds, but there is still a strong pressure gradient from the 1050mb+ ridge up near MT so gusts to 20-25mph are still possible.
Overall I like a widespread 2-3" with a band of 4-6" setting up roughly along 70 and favoring MO for the heaviest amounts. Models continue to slow this storm down a bit so it looks like snow will break out a few hours before sunrise but still pretty well be wrapped up by 1-2pm...maybe 3.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2019 12:45:03 GMT -6
Heck of a cutter on the euro next weekend lol.
So predictable at this range
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 2, 2019 12:56:53 GMT -6
Heck of a cutter on the euro next weekend lol. So predictable at this range 100%. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 2, 2019 13:00:26 GMT -6
Are those radar echoes heading through Moberly and towards Quincy reaching the ground? They look pretty intense.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 13:01:40 GMT -6
Yeah, it might be tough getting that one to keep from lifting with the shortwave ridging out front and developing negative tilt. GFS looks better with the strong upstream ridge where the EURO doesn't have that and actually has kicker energy along the coast. A lot of these storms that come ashore in CA end up cutting to our west.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Mar 2, 2019 13:03:07 GMT -6
NAM looks pretty reasonable...this definitely isn't a huge storm but should have plenty of impacts with the wind. Still liking 2-3" IMBY and 4-6" for the metro and points W/SW leaning towards the lower end outside of any banded structures. I just want enough to get some blowing and drifting going and get that "pure winter" look...is that too much to ask? Drifting snow and snownadoes would do it for me. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 13:03:32 GMT -6
Are those radar echoes heading through Moberly and towards Quincy reaching the ground? They look pretty intense. Negative. Notice the huge donut hole on base radar indicating a deep dry layer...just a lot of virga. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 13:07:12 GMT -6
NAM looks pretty reasonable...this definitely isn't a huge storm but should have plenty of impacts with the wind. Still liking 2-3" IMBY and 4-6" for the metro and points W/SW leaning towards the lower end outside of any banded structures. I just want enough to get some blowing and drifting going and get that "pure winter" look...is that too much to ask? Drifting snow and snownadoes would do it for me. That's what I'm saying...I haven't seen that true wintry look this year so far. Hope this one delivers. Model trends are encouraging. You sure don't typically see this type of airmass in March, either...it will have some lasting power into next week. It will be interesting to see how long the snowcover lasts with the increasing sun...usually March snows melt quickly but this is more of a mid-winter pattern than early spring. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 13:16:41 GMT -6
EURO came in very cold for Monday AM with the 2m 0*F line dipping into the NW 1/3rd of the CWA. I don't think I've ever recorded 0* in March so that will be something if it occurs. I don't expect it to with h85 temps around -15*C and the wind not decoupling but with the snow cover temps can drop quick with temporarily favorable conditions and the sky should be pretty clear so it could be close.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 2, 2019 13:22:58 GMT -6
Looks like there is going to be a very strong band with 1-2” per hour rates moving just S of stl right around sunrise.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 2, 2019 13:24:10 GMT -6
Not looking forward to snow sitting on a half soggy, half frozen ground for 4-5 days and then getting rain at 50 degrees.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 13:29:16 GMT -6
18z HRRR looks decent. Really hope this system can maintain strength as it pushes into eastern Mo
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 13:32:20 GMT -6
latest nws tweet:
Hello everyone! We're refining the forecast for tonight and tomorrow's snow at this time. The snow may start later than previously expected, but the latest accumulations look very close to this morning's forecast. New accumulation map out soon!
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 13:46:00 GMT -6
I will be updating soon as well.
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