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Post by ajd446 on Mar 2, 2019 13:58:47 GMT -6
Nam looks great
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2019 14:00:57 GMT -6
Models have trended better with the jet coupling since yesterday...if that holds up it will help to keep the Fgen going and the overall large-scale ascent and probably the isentropic ascent further S as well. The greatest upper divergence develops right across the bi-state by sunrise or shortly thereafter...I would expect some 1"/hr rates under any meso bands.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 2, 2019 14:20:41 GMT -6
Starting to see on short term models a long, fairly heavy band moving right on or just south of 70.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 2, 2019 14:24:30 GMT -6
I see nothing to deviate from a broad 2-5 inch event.
Some 6 inch lollipops to the west.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2019 14:30:08 GMT -6
Yes most hi res models are targeting the I 70 coordinator for sure, they have really cut off the precipitation south and south west
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 14:48:37 GMT -6
Hi res models seem to be converging on along and just south of Interstate-70 as the bullseye. One inch an hour rates will be quite possible in favored locations. Per this guidance, five or six inches of snow seems to be a lock in the Ballwin area. This is a developing weather situation. Any deviations in guidance output as the event nears its start will most assuredly impact future accumulation forecasts.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 2, 2019 14:54:37 GMT -6
Hoping that lead wave/band extends far enough south for me. Some model differences with that. Then there's the second batch and many questions about how well organized that is.
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 2, 2019 14:57:39 GMT -6
You "south of the purple line" folks fret not. I am predicting at least three or four inches down your way.
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 2, 2019 15:03:35 GMT -6
The wind is picking up in Festus!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 2, 2019 15:14:44 GMT -6
So how far south do you guys think the heaviest snow band will get?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 2, 2019 15:20:08 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 2, 2019 15:35:12 GMT -6
Yes I was having fun...... Im thinking 70 and to about 50 miles south and about a country or two into Illinois sit in the best spot to get 3-4 inches.... either side of that will be around 2..... If I get 3 or more here I will be happy
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 2, 2019 15:41:17 GMT -6
CFS 768hr model for 12Z says Winter far from done with an epic snow filled March.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 2, 2019 15:42:52 GMT -6
Nice bring it on!
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 15:44:57 GMT -6
lord
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 15:47:54 GMT -6
768 hours? Lock it in
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 2, 2019 15:50:17 GMT -6
No, throughout it's run. It just goes up to 768 or 30 days. A few brief warm-ups but mostly below normal heights and active storm track with even some pseudo blocking in place. |
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Post by snowjunky on Mar 2, 2019 15:51:52 GMT -6
CFS 768hr model for 12Z says Winter far from done with an epic snow filled March. And Jake Allen is a good goalie. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 2, 2019 15:51:57 GMT -6
GFS drier and more north.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2019 15:55:20 GMT -6
Looks like our system just came into SF Bay area. I would of thought it would have been closer...unless I am looking at the wrong storm. SPC had a closed 850mb low there 4 hrs ago. Satellite as of 3:03pm had it just coming onshore. I thought I heard in here that full sample would be at 12z this morning. Did I misread something?  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 15:57:45 GMT -6
All models now are honing in along 70 for max accumulations
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Mar 2, 2019 15:58:07 GMT -6
I miss PBC's updates.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Mar 2, 2019 15:58:51 GMT -6
ajd446 how much ya got so far?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 2, 2019 15:59:11 GMT -6
No, throughout it's run. It just goes up to 768 or 30 days. A few brief warm-ups but mostly below normal heights and active storm track with even some pseudo blocking in place. I know, only joking. But from what it sounds like the CFS likes to change its mind frequently |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 2, 2019 15:59:15 GMT -6
Gotta love the evolution of these systems. From "beefy" to " in park grand slams" to "double off an error". Still happy on the deal we got on a great snow blower. I am ready for warmer temps, days on the lake and ice cold beers by a camp fire.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 2, 2019 15:59:38 GMT -6
CFS monthlies showing a 'Super El Nino' starting this Summer into next Winter rivaling 2015-16 and 1997-98. Let's see how long that lasts.
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Post by amstilost on Mar 2, 2019 16:00:33 GMT -6
Over UT maybe....That seems more plausible.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 2, 2019 16:07:06 GMT -6
How about we just get through the next 24 instead of the next 8000 hrs. Just a thought
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 2, 2019 16:15:28 GMT -6
Next week a butterfly will flap it's wings in Mexico, causing a typhoon in the west Pacific, which will cause rains in Brazil, followed by deep cold in europe in 2 months, which will all cause a historic drought for the entire lower 48 this year from June through October
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 2, 2019 16:27:29 GMT -6
Exoectations are definitely down for this system. Looking more like a 1-3" system at the moment. It is what it is...the models were just too beefy early on and didn't rebound from the drying out like they did the last couple systems. Can we have spring now please? We have been cold and dreary for damn near 5 months now.
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