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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2019 12:25:40 GMT -6
What are you wearing today BRTN
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 16, 2019 12:26:09 GMT -6
Final total I measured last night was 2.7”. Very well played storm and nice to see the northern folks got in the game. Let’s hope for colder air around Tuesday!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 12:28:12 GMT -6
I have noticed I can easily handle winter I st.louis. I have yet to break out the coat this winter. When its 15 or ok. When its 0 it's a little chilly when its neg 10 I'll put a sweatshirt on. Today I'm in shotsleevs lol Got my swimming suit on and dipping in the lake up here light weight |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2019 12:29:43 GMT -6
I had this convo with my minneapolis colleagues the other day. Their response was that they felt like they were on the edge too. I certainly am not buying it. But yeah, we talked abt how much different the winter pattern is 100 to 200 miles to the north or south. Since ive moved to st louis in the mid 80s, confidence was higher in precip types and it didnt seem like we had these borderline events as much. Cgi was the border, but stl you cld count on snow without the wam. We also had alot more winterstorm watches and advisories but the problem in the 80s, alot more of them busted hard. Nowadays, if you get a WSW, you at least can count on snow. As for the borderline thing, the wx pattern we hv now feels like the pattern i had growing up in cape. Maybe a 100 mile displacement in avg storm tracks has taken place. I think it definitely has...you could make a strong argument that the +AMO has a lot to do with that shift over the past 2+ decades. But I also think that may be slowly but surely reversing in the longer term. There seems to be an increasing trend of more harsh winters since about 2010...obviously there have been some duds in there too so it's hard to say for sure but I do believe there are several forcings working to cause a shift towards colder winters over the next 20+ years possibly. Did Bellevillewx steal your password?  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 16, 2019 12:31:18 GMT -6
The 12Z Euro gives us generally less than 0.1" QPF of shenanigans overnight tonight and then comes pretty close to dry slotting us in the middle of the week with temperatures borderline anyway.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 12:34:20 GMT -6
Alright wsc. That's my next weekend at lake of the ozarks polar plunge
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 12:34:56 GMT -6
And honestly euro does not
Look bad to me. Borderline yes but it's in our wheelhouse
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2019 12:35:19 GMT -6
The 12Z Euro gives us generally less than 0.1" QPF of shenanigans overnight tonight and then comes pretty close to dry slotting us in the middle of the week with temperatures borderline anyway. Weird look to the system Tuesday. I’m becoming sort of gun shy believing the euro in the medium range with how it’s been overamplyfing systems lately in that range |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2019 12:41:35 GMT -6
Most models give less than .10” tonight, they have trended drier since yesterday. I guess the threat of light sleet and freezing drizzle is why we have a wwa
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 12:43:03 GMT -6
The 12Z Euro gives us generally less than 0.1" QPF of shenanigans overnight tonight and then comes pretty close to dry slotting us in the middle of the week with temperatures borderline anyway. Weird look to the system Tuesday. I’m becoming sort of gun shy believing the euro in the medium range with how it’s been overamplyfing systems lately in that range Look at next weekend lmao |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 12:56:43 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 16, 2019 13:04:35 GMT -6
Pecos Hank deserves some kind of an award. One of the few YouTubers (out of ALL content creators, not just meteorology) I know who can make a 20 minute video pass by in a flash. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 16, 2019 13:04:50 GMT -6
Weird look to the system Tuesday. I’m becoming sort of gun shy believing the euro in the medium range with how it’s been overamplyfing systems lately in that range Look at next weekend lmao That's a beast of a storm. It goes from 1000mb to 970mb in 24 hours and 1000mb to 980mb in 12 hours. It has a hell of a dry line with it too. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 13:06:01 GMT -6
If the southeast ridge continues to try and flex its muscle like it has in the past week and is forecast to do over the next 6-10 days... I am banking on a very active severe weather season in these parts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 13:06:57 GMT -6
Pecos Hank is by far my favorite storm chaser...his video editing is top notch and he's a very level headed chaser.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 13:08:55 GMT -6
If the southeast ridge continues to try and flex its muscle like it has in the past week and is forecast to do over the next 6-10 days... I am banking on a very active severe weather season in these parts. That thought has crossed my mind recently, as well as concerns for flooding with soil moisture maxed out and streams running high already. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 16, 2019 13:10:55 GMT -6
Pecos Hank is by far my favorite storm chaser...his video editing is top notch and he's a very level headed chaser. His humor is awesome. His mannerisms are top notch and his insight is some of the best in the biz! I agree on level headed... never puts himself in danger intentionally. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 13:12:06 GMT -6
Look at next weekend lmao That's a beast of a storm. It goes from 1000mb to 970mb in 24 hours and 1000mb to 980mb in 12 hours. It has a hell of a dry line with it too. It’s a bomb cyclone by definition. I’ll be in Milwaukee next weekend, and if something like that comes along I’m going as far as Green Bay to see it |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2019 13:27:50 GMT -6
If the southeast ridge continues to try and flex its muscle like it has in the past week and is forecast to do over the next 6-10 days... I am banking on a very active severe weather season in these parts. That thought has crossed my mind recently, as well as concerns for flooding with soil moisture maxed out and streams running high already. I mentioned this last week. We are overdue for an active severe season. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 16, 2019 13:32:06 GMT -6
Chris, Xavier is on channel 2 that Fox station you know and live!
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 16, 2019 13:34:51 GMT -6
Love not live!
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 16, 2019 13:54:54 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. Great thing about just being just an enthusiast...I'm free to pay attention & discuss only when I want to  . |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 16, 2019 14:04:48 GMT -6
Pecos Hank is by far my favorite storm chaser...his video editing is top notch and he's a very level headed chaser. I've been watching him for a long time too! I love his videos!! Glad to see someone else does too! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 16, 2019 14:06:08 GMT -6
If the southeast ridge continues to try and flex its muscle like it has in the past week and is forecast to do over the next 6-10 days... I am banking on a very active severe weather season in these parts. Man Chris i was telling my wife the same thing. Nice to have my thoughts comfirmed by u!! |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 16, 2019 14:06:09 GMT -6
That thought has crossed my mind recently, as well as concerns for flooding with soil moisture maxed out and streams running high already. I mentioned this last week. We are overdue for an active severe season. I really don't put much stock int the "overdue" concept when it comes to weather, but yes I agree we are definitely overdue. And while we are at it the US is WAY overdue for a violent (EF4/5) tornado. We are in by far the longest stretch since accurate records began without one. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 16, 2019 14:06:10 GMT -6
That's a beast of a storm. It goes from 1000mb to 970mb in 24 hours and 1000mb to 980mb in 12 hours. It has a hell of a dry line with it too. It’s a bomb cyclone by definition. I’ll be in Milwaukee next weekend, and if something like that comes along I’m going as far as Green Bay to see it Next weekend is a monster on both the GFS and Euro. Icon has a flavor of it. GFS has an almost ideal track, but is another cold rain for us. Not sure why it would have a storm of that magnitude without a cold air connection. ICON and Euro are too far west to give us anything but a thump of rain and dry slot. Looks like another mauler for Wisconsin |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 14:15:04 GMT -6
Now... live is probably accurate. It is about all I do now on the AM shift. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 14:16:48 GMT -6
If the southeast ridge continues to try and flex its muscle like it has in the past week and is forecast to do over the next 6-10 days... I am banking on a very active severe weather season in these parts. Mmmm and next weekends storm...lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 14:18:46 GMT -6
Hate to even look out that far with two different storms ahead of it but as it stands there's virtually nothing to keep it from cutting way to the NW. We'd need a much flatter flow across the lakes...the SE ridge is forecast to be strong. It does look like that storm could harbor a major pattern change though.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 14:21:05 GMT -6
Hate to even look out that far with two different storms ahead of it but as it stands there's virtually nothing to keep it from cutting way to the NW. We'd need a much flatter flow across the lakes...the SE ridge is forecast to be strong. It does look like that storm could harbor a major pattern change though. Hadnt looked for a few days but iirc, i believe you are correct. |
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