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Post by Tilawn on Feb 17, 2019 10:44:22 GMT -6
Temp went from 31° at 7:45 up to 37° at 9:45 then now back down to 33° at 10:40. Guessing the Low pressure has now slid off to the east of us now.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 17, 2019 11:02:01 GMT -6
Welp, headed back to Columbia... get the rare opportunity to be a weatherguy on a knee scooter. Got the OK from up top.
We'll see how this goes.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 17, 2019 11:02:48 GMT -6
honestly, if what WSC describes is even a few hours early, that still affects the early Wednesday morning rush enough, it'll still be cold and affecting roads. I'm already telling people around here to expect a decent chance of some school and other cancellations yet again on Wednesday morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2019 11:18:25 GMT -6
honestly, if what WSC describes is even a few hours early, that still affects the early Wednesday morning rush enough, it'll still be cold and affecting roads. I'm already telling people around here to expect a decent chance of some school and other cancellations yet again on Wednesday morning. A lot will depend on the exact air temp...if it's 30-32* it might not be too bad but if it's 27-29* it will likely be much worse and if sleet prevails it'll be bad either way. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 17, 2019 11:19:24 GMT -6
I just bought the last 4 bags of rock salt at menardd in st.peters.
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Post by REB on Feb 17, 2019 11:32:10 GMT -6
Welp, headed back to Columbia... get the rare opportunity to be a weatherguy on a knee scooter. Got the OK from up top. We'll see how this goes. How are you going to do the third floor apartment? I forgot, but I’m assuming left ankle so you can drive. Good luck Luke. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 17, 2019 11:45:10 GMT -6
Welp, headed back to Columbia... get the rare opportunity to be a weatherguy on a knee scooter. Got the OK from up top. We'll see how this goes. I'm definitely going to look the video up on the station website |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 12:25:57 GMT -6
Not related to weather but - I just passed the registration examination for dietitians and am now officially a registered dietitian (RD). Who needs some nutrition education? lol. I don't. But congratulations. Snowman99 probably does. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 17, 2019 12:27:33 GMT -6
Temps are warming up! No teens at night anymore! So cool!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 12:34:47 GMT -6
Just a heads-up.
When looking at the snow accumulation maps.
Some of the models that say for any given location.
Let's use KSTL get screwy during phase change inbetween forecast hours.
Example. Let's say STL changes from snow to rain at hour 65.
Hour 60: none
Hour 63: heavy snow (0.25" qpf) so snow product says (2.5" of snow)
Hour 66: Rain (0.3" qpf) so snow product says 0.0" snow during this period. Still at 2.5".
Many of these snow total products count the previous 3 hour as whatever the model has in terms of precip type at the end of the 3 hour "rate".
So digging into soundings to estimate would probably be in order.
The nam does this for sure.
So with this next system be wary of the nams out put.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 12:37:13 GMT -6
12z euro now much further south for next weekend closer to the fv3 with a track near STL. Would need it to bomb out just to the east with that track for snow, but a lot better than yesterday.
No reason to have any real expectations of anything but rain though
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 12:42:23 GMT -6
Where’s snow storm with our 12z Euro snow update?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 12:48:19 GMT -6
Where’s snow storm with our 12z Euro snow update? Shows a few inches of snow and a dry slot |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 12:50:31 GMT -6
Yes I just saw that, great run 3-4” and never gets above 32 until Wednesday morning after 7am.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 12:54:24 GMT -6
Yes I just saw that, great run 3-4” and never gets above 32 until Wednesday morning after 7am. It's very possible the models will end up eventually settling on mostly snow a little bit bit of ice then drizzle. My excitement comes from this actually being a straight shot of moderate to heavy snow. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 12:55:58 GMT -6
Temps are warming up! No teens at night anymore! So cool! I wouldn’t count on the cold being done. Obviously as we head toward late February and March it won’t be consistently cold, but another arctic blast is showing up in the 10 day range |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 13:07:25 GMT -6
The Nam, GFS, and fv3 snow total products can't be trusted during this event. They will all dramatically under estimate snow accumulation. Here is the fv3 and Nam. You can see how stupid that looks being staggered by forecast increments. I don't feel like posting all of the models but the gem does it to. The higher the grid res the worst it gets.   |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 17, 2019 13:07:56 GMT -6
You gotta be kidding me, WorldSeriesC! C’mon!
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 17, 2019 13:09:30 GMT -6
But the snow will melt, it won’t stay! Our luck will be ice storm and not snow! Then it can melt!
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 17, 2019 13:19:57 GMT -6
Windy out now
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 17, 2019 14:04:50 GMT -6
Welp, headed back to Columbia... get the rare opportunity to be a weatherguy on a knee scooter. Got the OK from up top. We'll see how this goes. How are you going to do the third floor apartment? I forgot, but I’m assuming left ankle so you can drive. Good luck Luke. I'm comfortable enough on the crutches now to get it done. Thankfully I have a friend who is willing to help with groceries and such! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 14:42:27 GMT -6
18Z NAM has 4" of snow Tuesday evening at KBLV before changing over to drizzle/frzdr.
More to the South. Considerably less to the NW.
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 17, 2019 14:51:25 GMT -6
Temps are warming up! No teens at night anymore! So cool! I wouldn’t count on the cold being done. Obviously as we head toward late February and March it won’t be consistently cold, but another arctic blast is showing up in the 10 day range Bring it! I’m headed to spring training in exactly 10 days for a MUCH needed break from this winter of nuisance events. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 15:07:08 GMT -6
18Z NAM has 4" of snow Tuesday evening at KBLV before changing over to drizzle/frzdr. More to the South. Considerably less to the NW. The mid level speed convergence/fgen is quite impressive- but its main focus is more aligned just to the south and southeast of the immediate metro |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 15:07:16 GMT -6
I wouldn’t count on the cold being done. Obviously as we head toward late February and March it won’t be consistently cold, but another arctic blast is showing up in the 10 day range Bring it! I’m headed to spring training in exactly 10 days for a MUCH needed break from this winter of nuisance events. So jealous. Still holding out irrational hope you’ll see Bryce Harper down there. I am planning on going next year. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2019 15:09:14 GMT -6
Ya the snow maps with this system look really staggered and striated
Obviously not how the real world scenario will play out
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 15:19:43 GMT -6
18Z NAM has 4" of snow Tuesday evening at KBLV before changing over to drizzle/frzdr. More to the South. Considerably less to the NW. The mid level speed convergence/fgen is quite impressive- but its main focus is more aligned just to the south and southeast of the immediate metro Yeah. There is still time for this to speed up a bit and push in a bit faster. It looks like somewhere along the Northern edge of The precipitation shield some ridiculous snow rates will commence for a few hours. Honestly, the way this event unfolds is incredibly rare. Looking at h5 you would think we would be in for for a nasty tropical rain. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 15:23:09 GMT -6
The NAM is to splotchy with its precipitation field. You will likely not see that on game day. I think the Gem and Euro have a more consistent WAA precipitation shield.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 15:25:56 GMT -6
I still like the 1-3” range with a little freezing rain/drizzle on top. This is where I would start , and I agree with Friv theses type of systems usually these come in 2-4 hours quicker than modeled.
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 17, 2019 15:27:42 GMT -6
Bring it! I’m headed to spring training in exactly 10 days for a MUCH needed break from this winter of nuisance events. So jealous. Still holding out irrational hope you’ll see Bryce Harper down there. I am planning on going next year. Yeah, wish they would let go of the purse strings a bit and sign him too. First time to Spring training and REALLY looking forward to a few Yuenglings and Cardinal baseball! |
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