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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2019 15:28:40 GMT -6
The NAM is to splotchy with its precipitation field. You will likely not see that on game day. I think the Gem and Euro have a more consistent WAA precipitation shield. That's probably an artifact of convection...that's going to be a fast and furious hit of heavy snow before it changes over. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 15:28:53 GMT -6
Basically thanks to the current system mid level moisture is shunted to the GOM and the left over SUPER DRY arctic air mass is left in place.
While the AIRMASS itself is really modified by Tuesday night.
It's incredibly dry as the lift and moisture return.
And we get some extremely favorable winds under 800mb to help prevent WAA just completely washing out any residual cold air.
And then there is great evaporational cooling throughout the column.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2019 15:44:08 GMT -6
I think the storm I was comparing this one to is Feb. 21st, 2013. It's the only other storm I can remember where the upper system tracked considerably NW of the area and we still got a good hit of snow on the front end. www.weather.gov/lsx/02_21_2013 |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 15:53:22 GMT -6
The 18Z GFS has accumulating Snow for the NW 3/4th of the metro
Centered along 44/64/70.
Pretty much the NW 2/3rds get 3-5".
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 16:03:51 GMT -6
I think the storm I was comparing this one to is Feb. 21st, 2013. It's the only other storm I can remember where the upper system tracked considerably NW of the area and we still got a good hit of snow on the front end. www.weather.gov/lsx/02_21_2013Is the images linked on that page loading for you? I can't get them to load. If they are will you post them. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 16:04:24 GMT -6
Gfs looks good, Brtn I remember that storm well, I believe it looked like more rain a few days out , if I remember, Friv was all over it updating as we got closer the models started to catch onto the dry dew points, north east wind which basically kept us all snow and sleet with some freezing rain. It was a hard hit 3-6” during daylight hours. I remember plowing it was heavy and traffic was terrible through out St. Louis the entire day. I’m assuming it was similar and mostly WAA driven. If i remember it being about a 8-10 hour storm
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 16:09:39 GMT -6
Gfs looks good, Brtn I remember that storm well, I believe it looked like more rain a few days out , if I remember, Friv was all over it updating as we got closer the models started to catch onto the dry dew points, north east wind which basically kept us all snow and sleet with some freezing rain. It was a hard hit 3-6” during daylight hours. I remember plowing it was heavy and traffic was terrible through out St. Louis the entire day. I’m assuming it was similar and mostly WAA driven. If i remember it being about a 8-10 hour storm Yeah I remember that now. This will probably be a quicker event. But will be in the evening so we have that going for us. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2019 16:33:02 GMT -6
18z FV3 is a hit of 2-4” for everyone then a hit of ice before a bit of rain
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2019 16:34:01 GMT -6
I vividly remember the thundersnow with that storm...it snowed like crazy for about an hour in East Alton and we picked up at least a couple inches during that burst and a few more before and after that. The more I look at the setup for Tuesday evening the more impressed I am with it. There's a lot of dynamics going on...great jet support...strong WAA/isentropic upglide and moisture convergence/frontogenesis. There's also some deep moisture being pulled northward into this storm with a 50-60kt+ LLJ. If the evaporational and dynamic cooling can keep it all snow for at least several hours we could get a pretty nice snowstorm out of this. I'd say 1-3" is a good starting point but I could see where some 4-5"+ amounts fall along/N of 70 if it stays snow longer. It definitely helps that it's coming through at night...it won't be fighting the higher sun angle.  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 17, 2019 16:45:10 GMT -6
1000
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 16:57:06 GMT -6
10 in a row
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 17, 2019 16:58:32 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 17:09:31 GMT -6
I vividly remember the thundersnow with that storm...it snowed like crazy for about an hour in East Alton and we picked up at least a couple inches during that burst and a few more before and after that. The more I look at the setup for Tuesday evening the more impressed I am with it. There's a lot of dynamics going on...great jet support...strong WAA/isentropic upglide and moisture convergence/frontogenesis. There's also some deep moisture being pulled northward into this storm with a 50-60kt+ LLJ. If the evaporational and dynamic cooling can keep it all snow for at least several hours we could get a pretty nice snowstorm out of this. I'd say 1-3" is a good starting point but I could see where some 4-5"+ amounts fall along/N of 70 if it stays snow longer. It definitely helps that it's coming through at night...it won't be fighting the higher sun angle. Getting lift from below 850 to the trop- GFS sounding Tuesday evening is completely saturated. Love that strong jet across the lakes- right entrance. |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 17, 2019 17:19:08 GMT -6
#WINNINGTON!!!!!
I’m thrilled. My husband said “oh god, now I have to have hope again”. Yep that covers it. LOL
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 17:28:49 GMT -6
I vividly remember the thundersnow with that storm...it snowed like crazy for about an hour in East Alton and we picked up at least a couple inches during that burst and a few more before and after that. The more I look at the setup for Tuesday evening the more impressed I am with it. There's a lot of dynamics going on...great jet support...strong WAA/isentropic upglide and moisture convergence/frontogenesis. There's also some deep moisture being pulled northward into this storm with a 50-60kt+ LLJ. If the evaporational and dynamic cooling can keep it all snow for at least several hours we could get a pretty nice snowstorm out of this. I'd say 1-3" is a good starting point but I could see where some 4-5"+ amounts fall along/N of 70 if it stays snow longer. It definitely helps that it's coming through at night...it won't be fighting the higher sun angle. Getting lift from below 850 to the trop- GFS sounding Tuesday evening is completely saturated. Love that strong jet across the lakes- right entrance. The DGZ is massive. Given the warmer column below 800mb I'd think we would have pretty chunky flakes mixed with quarters at times. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2019 17:31:04 GMT -6
I was pretty confident the blues would turn it around and make a run at the wildcard
But never thought they would rattle off 10 in a row and look like the best team in the conference
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 17:34:09 GMT -6
I was pretty confident the blues would turn it around and make a run at the wildcard But never thought they would rattle off 10 in a row and look like the best team in the conference Hell- Nashville is in our sight. 6 points back and 3 in hand |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 17, 2019 17:35:06 GMT -6
Ties a record at 10, right?
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 18:01:36 GMT -6
Getting lift from below 850 to the trop- GFS sounding Tuesday evening is completely saturated. Love that strong jet across the lakes- right entrance. The DGZ is massive. Given the warmer column below 800mb I'd think we would have pretty chunky flakes mixed with quarters at times. Would like to see steeper lapse rates thru the dgz but there are some nice looking soundings |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 17, 2019 18:05:48 GMT -6
I wouldn’t count on the cold being done. Obviously as we head toward late February and March it won’t be consistently cold, but another arctic blast is showing up in the 10 day range Bring it! I’m headed to spring training in exactly 10 days for a MUCH needed break from this winter of nuisance events. My brother and his wife are going down there in a couple of weeks too |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 17, 2019 18:23:31 GMT -6
The DGZ is massive. Given the warmer column below 800mb I'd think we would have pretty chunky flakes mixed with quarters at times. Would like to see steeper lapse rates thru the dgz but there are some nice looking soundings That's one thing I noticed...mid-level temperatures are pretty warm which will limit the convection potential. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 17, 2019 18:25:13 GMT -6
DM says 1” or less then switch to ZR then rain
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 17, 2019 18:26:57 GMT -6
Can Ed Olczyk get through one single game without mentioning the Blackhawks? He managed to slip it in today and wasn't even announcing the freaking game. He and Keith Jones can bite it.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 18:54:17 GMT -6
Definitely gunna hafts deal with that darn drier slot somewhere with this one...
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 19:15:25 GMT -6
Definitely gunna hafts deal with that darn drier slot somewhere with this one... That will happen... this is a front loaded system. Actually the dry slot will limit any rain we may see. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 19:19:18 GMT -6
18z euro looks good for a couple inches of snow. System is done by midnight, so Wednesday morning should be fine.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 19:19:54 GMT -6
Definitely gunna hafts deal with that darn drier slot somewhere with this one... That will happen... this is a front loaded system. Actually the dry slot will limit any rain we may see. I seen that too. Kinda nice how it works out actually. Just wish it didn’t warm up so fast after and melt all our precious snow. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 19:22:29 GMT -6
18z euro looks good for a couple inches of snow. System is done by midnight, so Wednesday morning should be fine. I’d hafta believe somewhat different especially when it comes to the side roads. The road crews this year seem to forget they exist and half the time they ever even get plowed. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 19:23:21 GMT -6
DM says 1” or less then switch to ZR then rain From what I see now... I will disagree |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 19:26:30 GMT -6
I'm shocked the most by how much Jay Bouwmeester has stepped up.
Back in early December he was one of the first guys who took his effort and overall game up a notch.
Like maybe health + confidence came through.
The players certainly quit on Yeo.
That happens.
I remember when he literally through Pat Maroon under the bus after a game to the media.
I am sure he already lost the room prior to that but that is pretty stupid to do that many years into the coaching thing.
Anyways Jay Bouwmeester has transformed his play at his age in a new very young man's NHL in a way I have never seen.
I don't think they should give him another contract.
But it would be sweet if he could help the blues and himself win their first championship.
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